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david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Dec 8

This week Ghana is almost certain to default on its debt.

Another canary in the coalmine for a much bigger debt problem that’s hurtling towards us.

A $2.5 trillion #debt shock

A 🧵on debt, why it matters, and why poor countries pay more to borrow money. 👇

Let’s start with where we are in the economic cycle.

In 2007/8, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, the Financial Crisis resulted in a deep recession, a decade of austerity and arguably a wave of populism.

But it also led to a decade of close to 0 interest rates.

Cheap money 💸

What does cheap money do?

Well in this case it saved the financial system.

But it also had side major effects.

Those with assets (shares, houses, wine, art, vintage guitars) saw their wealth increase. Those without saw their buying power diminish.

Read 18 tweets

david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Nov 15

@CarnegieEndow

As #G20 leaders meet in #Bali they should start thinking about systemic reforms fit for the #polycrisis we are in.

Here’s a proposal I wrote for @CarnegieEndow

@adam_tooze @Noahpinion @davidmcw @MazzucatoM @HelenClarkNZ @GayleSmith @micksheldrick

carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/15/glo…

@IMFNews

Here’s the #G20 communique.

Lots of warm words on climate and food insecurity but not much new.

From a quick read there’s nothing new on debt, some welcome language on @IMFNews Special Drawing Rights.

linktr.ee/mediacenterg20

@FredRoder

And here’s a great analysis from @FredRoder

https://twitter.com/fredroder/status/1592795763306008576

Read 6 tweets

david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Oct 27

@friendsofeurope

There’s a lot of debate this week about the UK’s role in the world. 🇬🇧

A new PM

Maybe a new trade deal with India.🇮🇳

A debate that started with #brexit of course

But what about the EU’s role in the world?

#StateofEU @friendsofeurope @africaeuropefdn

The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc. 🇪🇺

But in reality, it’s hemorrhaging influence in emerging markets and developing countries.

Why?

Partly because China, Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states have massively increased investments and military support.

#StateofEU

Russia, the largest supplier of weapons to Africa, now provides 44 percent of major arms to the region. sipri.org/sites/default/…

China committed about US$160 billion in infrastructure financing in Africa between 2000 and 2020. bu.edu/gdp/chinese-lo…

Read 20 tweets

david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Oct 10

This week the world’s finance chiefs gather in Washington DC.

Storm clouds are gathering.

What’s going on?

What will finance ministers do about it?

And what does it have to do with the Queen and a Pint of Guinness?

A🧵

Everyone is focused on inflation.

So, let’s focus on that first before getting into the broader economic outlook.

Headline inflation (based on a basket of consumer goods and services, including food and energy) is 8.3% in the US and 10% in the Eurozone.

But it’s much worse in emerging economies.

Inflation reached double digits in 17 sub-Saharan African countries, with nearly 9 in 10 countries in the region experiencing inflation rates above 5%.

Read 25 tweets

david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Sep 23

@WorldBank

There’s a lot of heat on the @WorldBank this week. We’ve been watching its performance during the pandemic, and here’s how it measures up.

A 🧵 cataloging its complacency…

1/

Early in the pandemic we urged the Bank to take swift action to address poor countries' economic distress.

The Bank was well-positioned to be a leader on this. They have an arsenal of tools, brilliant staff, and a vital role to play – and that the world continues to need.

2/

But let’s dive in.

Early in the pandemic, the Bank estimated that African countries would need $114bn in 2020, and that 39mn Africans could fall into poverty.

one.org/international/…

3/

Read 13 tweets

david_mcnair

@David_McNair

Sep 21

This week US President Biden said the #COVID19 pandemic is over.

He did so almost exactly a year since world leaders committed to ensuring 70% of the world’s population got vaccinated against #COVID19.

It failed dismally.

What went wrong?

First a bit of background:

At last year's UN week, Joe Biden gathered government leaders who recognized the gross inequities in vaccine distribution between rich and poor countries.

#UNGA #UNGA77

@ONECampaign

Activists like members of @ONECampaign @GlblCtzn and @PandemicAction were delighted that leaders were finally paying attention.

At the time about 60% of the population of rich countries had been fully vaccinated.

A shocking 1.4% of poor countries had.

Read 20 tweets

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