Imagine finding out that you were paying 5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣% of what you could be paying for your mortgage?

This is what is happening to African Countries.

It’s fueling a hunger, debt, and cost of living crisis.

And it’s holding back solutions to #climatechange #ACS23

A🧵 Half of humanity live in countries that spend more on debt interest payments than on health or education.

But what’s really going on here?

At @onecampaign we crunched the numbers and found that the African debt crisis isn’t what it seems.

This was not a good week for those facing hunger.

Most of the news is focusing on Russia.

But there’s more

A 🧵 This weekend Russia has been bombing grain facilities in the Black Sea port of Odessa.

Earlier Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal.

Why does this matter?

msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

Next week @G20org Finance Ministers will discuss a new land-mark report.

If they act, it could transform the fortunes of millions of people.

It’s not public yet, but I’ve seen a leak and it’s very good.

Here are three reflections from having seen it.

A 🧵 1⃣ A GROWING REALIZATION

More and more of the world’s leading finance experts have recognised that climate change demands a very different way of thinking about economics.

So called ‘Bidenomics’ brings back industrial strategy, this time with a shade of green.

This week Presidents and Prime Ministers met in #Paris and #London.

Motivated by international solidarity with #Ukraine and with the Global South

This is a tale of two Summits with similar narratives

And very different outcomes.

A 🧵

#URC2023 #NewGlobalFinancingPact The London Ukraine Recovery Conference was remarkably up beat. #URC2023

#Ukraine is the breadbasket of the world, a top exporter of iron and steel, a leader in energy, and a hub for tech startups​.

#NewGlobalFinancingPact

I just spoke (and listened) at #DevEngage2023 conference.

A gathering of bright, thoughtful people grappling with the big questions:

#justice

#fairness

And how to build bonds of #trust between the public in rich and poor countries..

Here are five things I learnt.

A 🧵 1️⃣ THE RIGHT THING ✅

👉🏿Talking to the public about supporting aid and development only really works when they feed it’s the right thing to do.

👉🏿Making a foreign policy or a trade argument doesn’t.

#DevEngage2023

Remember the Sustainable Development Goals?

Written in a different era.

One of optimism and ambition.

Half way through they are not in rude health 🏥

A 🧵

#DevEngage2023 The UN SG's “Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals: released this week makes for grim reading.

On current trends, 575 million people will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030. 📈

Hunger has increased and is back at 2005 levels. 📈 🥗🌯

#DevEngage2023

I spent this morning with @Dochasnetwork to talk about Irish public support for #globaldev.

Their new representative study (2k sample) lays out the extraordinary levels of support for development.

A 🧵

@trocaire @Concern @OxfamIreland #Worldview ACTIVE 🏋️‍♀️🚴‍♂️🤸‍♂️

👉🏿31% of those surveyed actively engaged on global development in the last 12 months.

That’s huge.

#Worldview

Next week I'm on the road: 🧵

Tuesday: I'll be in Dublin speaking with @Dochasnetwork CEOs about development campaigning @JaneAnnMcKenna

Then with @GENE_GlobalEd about shifting trends in geo-politics and their implications for development. @LiamWegimont Wednesday: I'll be in London at the House of Commons for a Roundtable on Multilateralism and #GlobalEconomicGovernance Reform. @liambyrnemp @CAFOD

Thursday: I'll be speaking at the @DevEngageLab conference on building support for #sustainabledevelopment.

African Finance Ministers have laid out a five point agenda for Global Financial Architecture Reform.

A 🧵 1️⃣ Increase the amount of low-interest money available to countries, and make sure it stays available over the long term.

The World’s Finance Chiefs are in DC for the #springmeetings2023 of the #IMF and #WorldBank.

So what happened so far? 🧵

#FundTheFuture SLOWDOWN:

The IMF’s latest forecasts showed that growth will slightly decline to 2.8% this year (0.1 percentage points below January projections) before rising to 3% in 2024.

Global inflation will fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024

imf.org/en/Publication…

This week the Pope visited Africa.

“Hands off Africa!.. it is not a mine to be stripped or a terrain to be plundered.”

He said to an applauding crowd in Kinshasa.

A 🧵about what the Pope (and Vladamir Putin) understand about Africa that many don’t. Around 95% of Africans are religious;

Half are Christian, 1 in 3 are Muslim.

In 1910 there were 1 million Catholics in Africa
In 2010 there were 171 million
In 2021 there were 256 million

This week Ghana is almost certain to default on its debt.

Another canary in the coalmine for a much bigger debt problem that’s hurtling towards us.

A $2.5 trillion #debt shock

A 🧵on debt, why it matters, and why poor countries pay more to borrow money. 👇 Let’s start with where we are in the economic cycle.

In 2007/8, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, the Financial Crisis resulted in a deep recession, a decade of austerity and arguably a wave of populism.

But it also led to a decade of close to 0 interest rates.

Cheap money 💸

I asked #ChatGTP four questions that have been on my mind.

/1 How do we reform the Bretton Woods system? /2 How do we reform the IMF?

As #G20 leaders meet in #Bali they should start thinking about systemic reforms fit for the #polycrisis we are in.

Here’s a proposal I wrote for @CarnegieEndow

@adam_tooze @Noahpinion @davidmcw @MazzucatoM @HelenClarkNZ @GayleSmith @micksheldrick

carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/15/glo… Here’s the #G20 communique.

Lots of warm words on climate and food insecurity but not much new.

From a quick read there’s nothing new on debt, some welcome language on @IMFNews Special Drawing Rights.

linktr.ee/mediacenterg20

There’s a lot of debate this week about the UK’s role in the world. 🇬🇧

A new PM

Maybe a new trade deal with India.🇮🇳

A debate that started with #brexit of course

But what about the EU’s role in the world?

#StateofEU @friendsofeurope @africaeuropefdn The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc. 🇪🇺

But in reality, it’s hemorrhaging influence in emerging markets and developing countries.

Why?

Partly because China, Russia, Turkey, and Gulf states have massively increased investments and military support.

#StateofEU

This week the world’s finance chiefs gather in Washington DC.

Storm clouds are gathering.

What’s going on?

What will finance ministers do about it?

And what does it have to do with the Queen and a Pint of Guinness?

A🧵 Everyone is focused on inflation.

So, let’s focus on that first before getting into the broader economic outlook.

Headline inflation (based on a basket of consumer goods and services, including food and energy) is 8.3% in the US and 10% in the Eurozone.

There’s a lot of heat on the @WorldBank this week. We’ve been watching its performance during the pandemic, and here’s how it measures up.

A 🧵 cataloging its complacency…

1/ Early in the pandemic we urged the Bank to take swift action to address poor countries' economic distress.

The Bank was well-positioned to be a leader on this. They have an arsenal of tools, brilliant staff, and a vital role to play – and that the world continues to need.

2/

This week US President Biden said the #COVID19 pandemic is over.

He did so almost exactly a year since world leaders committed to ensuring 70% of the world’s population got vaccinated against #COVID19.

It failed dismally.

What went wrong? First a bit of background:

At last year's UN week, Joe Biden gathered government leaders who recognized the gross inequities in vaccine distribution between rich and poor countries.

#UNGA #UNGA77

This week European leaders snubbed African Presidents who traveled to…Europe…for an important conference on adapting to climate change.

There are three reasons why this is an own goal for Europe.

A 🧵 First a bit of background.

Six African Leaders traveled to Rotterdam for The African Adaptation Summit

Part of the preparation for the @Cop27P Climate Conference, to be hosted by Egypt in November.

gca.org/events/africa-… @GCAdaptation

This week Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov toured Africa on a charm offensive.

But Western countries could be playing right into Russia’s hands.

Here’s how. A 🧵 Lavrov visited Egypt🇪🇬, the Republic of Congo 🇨🇩, Uganda 🇺🇬and Ethiopia 🇪🇹.

https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1551339663889252356?s=20&t=IN8DnFYes643H7YaX8GpfA

Yesterday @IMFNews published its predictions on the global economy.

Cue endless bad weather metaphors:

Gloomy outlook ☁️

Storm clouds brewing 🌩️

Perfect storm 🌪️

But aside from vague metaphors and disconnected data points, what does the report actually mean? 🧵 Global growth is expected to roughly half from 6.1% last year to 3.2% in 2022 & 2.9% in 2023.

This is dangerously close to what @IMFNews considers a global recession (2.5%)

What’s driving it? Primarily, downturns in the three poles of the global economy: