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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Dec 6

#EU_Enlargement: The EU published the 5th report on the functioning of the EU visa-free regime. Some highlights:⤵️

1) Albania (pop. 2.8 million): Asylum applications - increased by 63% (in total - 11,300); Irregular border crossing - decreased by 19% (1,160 cases); Irregular staying – increased by 21% (37,305 cases); Refusals – rose by 39% (18,565); Return decisions – fell by 5% (22,025).⤵️

2) BiH (pop. 3.2 million): Asylum applications - increased by 78% (2,695); Irregular border crossing - decreased by 42% (17 cases); Irregular staying in the EU – increased by 17% (4,200 cases); Refusals – decreased by 39% (4,995); Return decisions – fell by 1% (2,740).⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Dec 6

#Moldova: The scandal surrounding the tradeoffs made by the Moldovan govt with Transnistria for the supply of electricity is taking new shapes. Two days after the deal was sealed, President Sandu asked the government to provide the public with full details about the signed⤵️

contract, which her own government did in a non-transparent manner (she is on an official trip abroad, but the national security matters are always decided by her). Today, the US Embassy in Chisinau has sided with the Moldovan govt congratulating it on the contract signed⤵️

with the energy produced in the breakaway region (owned by Inter RAO UES, a company under sanctions). It is worth remembering that 2 days ago (December 4), the Moldovan govt announced that it agreed to redirect all volumes (5.7 mcm per day) of gas from Russia (bought at⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 24

#Critical_Infrastructure: The Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure that have taken place in the last 6 weeks are creating the risk of a full blackout (the worst-case scenario): 1) high probability of a humanitarian crisis involving millions of civilians;⤵️

2) Cause epidemiological risks; 3) Renewal of the refugee crisis; 4) the weakening of the supply chain to the military forces of Ukraine. Russian intentions are to force Ukraine to negotiate and increase the costs of supporting Ukraine in the West (additional incentive⤵️

in the direction of negotiations). Russia seeks to preserve the current status quo (occupation and annexation of the southeastern regions of Ukraine), which does not rule out the future resumption of aggression against Ukraine.⤵️

Read 4 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 24

#Russia_Energy: The EU has not yet decided which oil price cap should apply. There are three opinions: 1) Poland leads the group that advocates a cap below $65 per barrel; 2) Greece favors the $70 cap as it has a large shipping industry; 3) Most, including Germany, are ⤵️

targeting the $65 top price. Anyway, it is well known that Russian oil sells for up to 25% off or ~$65 per barrel. That means the $65 price ceiling will not hit Russia hard. However, with the EU embargo on Russian seaborne oil in place on Dec 5, Russia will have more trouble ⤵️

marketing its oil. In the event that the price rises due to market shortages (coordinated by Russia with OPEC+), Russian oil will continue to be sold with discounts. Market traders may ask for lower priced oil from Russia due to the risks of secondary sanctions for trading in it.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 23

#EU_Russia: The oil price cap will probably be $60-70 per barrel, while the grace period will be 45 days (if loaded before Dec 5th and unloaded before Jan 19th). On the other hand, the EU is also discussing a cap price for Russian gas that would be €275 per MWh⤵️

(€2,974 per 1,000 m3). This price cap for gas is proposed for a year in futures for a month ahead. Thus, the EU tries to avoid damaging the gas market, while in reality it costs Russia nothing to sell its gas via pipeline or as LNG at a profitable price. Now, the price of⤵️

gas is at the level of €120 per MWh or €1,298 per 1,000 m3. The gas price cap mechanism will be activated in two cases: 1) for 2 weeks, the price exceeds €2,974 per 1,000 m3; 2) the difference between the TTF and the global price of LNG will exceed €58 in 10 business days.⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Nov 22

#Ukraine_Moldova: Russia has announced that it will stop gas supplies through Ukraine, except for gas destined for Moldova: 1) Gazprom claims that Ukraine would have withheld up to 52.52 million m3 of gas destined for Moldova. I assume that these are actually⤵️

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1595005734810533889

Moldova's strategic reserves that are stored in the Ukrainian storage. 2) Russia declares that it will stop the 43 million m3 of gas flowing through Ukraine to the EU, excluding the 5.7 million that are committed for daily supply to Moldova for Dec 2022.⤵️👇

https://twitter.com/dioniscenusa/status/1595005734810533889

Consequently, Gazprom will not deliver 37.3 million m3, in breach of contractual commitments with Ukraine. The flow of gas will stop from November 28. Gazprom conditions the resumption of supplies with the gas for Moldova stored in Ukraine (for which Moldova paid⤵️

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