⏩ New Introductory Essay
‘To #Ukraine With Love’
Talks about how #Russia’s war has changed us - me included. I share my personal journey this year & how I’ve tried to respond to the situation my doing more & doing better - & found such good company in doing so (incl. #NAFO).
There’s 4 Sections
I. #Ukraine’s fight for EU Membership &🇪🇺’s struggle for its identity
II. The Return of Central Europe & the rise of #NeoIdealism
III. #Germany: Reckoning, Reinvention & (Unrealised) Potential
IV. The #VisaBan & How to Defend Liberalism amazon.com/Ukraine-Love-E…
And here’s the full contents list.
- I added an intro paragraph to each text explaining where it was written, why and what are the key issues it raised (& reflecting on how some things changed through the year as well as what endured) - & thank those who made the text possible
I did the book for 3 reasons: 1. To provide ways of making sense of the war, why it matters and how we can win.
3. To pay tribute to (& provide another anchor for) the community we formed through collective purpose #NAFO + amazon.de/-/en/gp/produc…
When I asked some people who I respect, admire & love engaging with to provide blurbs for the book, I was absolutely overwhelmed by their generosity - this means so much to me - thank you all. Here are the endorsements
first from @IlvesToomas #Ukraine amazon.com/gp/aw/d/B0BPW9…
So, please buy the book & help spread the ways of understanding the war, why it matters & how we can win. Ukrainians have inspired us and we owe them so much - here’s a way to start paying back
To #Ukraine With Love
To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine
To counter the fatalism in Western Europe, which is in danger of becoming disastrously self-fulfilling, 100+ politicians, experts, military & intelligence professionals argue that
a coalition of willing Europeans must step up for Ukraine’s victory & our common security, regardless of the outcome of the US Election, because:
1️⃣ Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will exhaust key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace.
2️⃣ There is no credible plan for European security after any ‘ceasefire’. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
3️⃣ Failing to win endangers all European allies. A ‘Minsk III’ (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
4️⃣ A route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
5️⃣ Those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
➡️In this appeal we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, focused on a clear theory of victory.
@james_rogers @LarryPfeifferDC @ThreshedThought @StephenGethins @DerkBoswijk @AdamKinzinger @robinwagener @StanKutcher @ratnaomi @DonnaDasko @SlawomirDebski And was signed by German MPs including
It’s here!
🔥Long awaited new piece on #NeoIdealism is OUT NOW!🔥
➡️ Develops Neo-Idealism as Grand Strategy for the Free World 🌍
I Lay out 8 pillars that we need if we are to build a Neo-Idealist approach in international (& domestic) politics!
👇🧵 macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/upl…
Why do we need a grand strategy?
Because we, the world’s free societies, face multiple tests of our value & prowess - & severe & urgent threats to our security, prosperity & freedom. Threats to our democratic way of life
- but we’ve not yet got our collective act together. 🧵
The challenges we face span geopolitics, geoeconomics, climate change, technological transformation & cut across foreign & domestic policy.
We must defend our democracies against external threats
- but also renew them to defeat internal anti-democratic & illiberal forces.🧵
#Germany is both #Ukraine’s biggest European supporter in absolute financial terms
- AND rightly seen as problem by allies (As well as by many Germans)
Here’s why.🧵
(& no, it’s not just Scholz, the SPD & #Taurus)
There's a lot of confusion & conflicting figures flying around, so what support has 🇩🇪 provided to 🇺🇦 in financial terms?
We use🇩🇪Govt figures (because they're unlikely to be underestimates) but pls correct if needed.
We also separate military from other aid
(to 24/02/24).🧵
German military aid to Ukraine
- €12.082bn in military aid DELIVERED
(6.6bn buying equipment for Ukraine
5bn in 2023, 1.6bn in 2022
5.2bn value kit donated from stocks, 282m training UA soldiers)
(16bn more promised for future but we don't include that as its not there yet) 🧵
The fight back has begun.
Everyone has rightly talked about grim mood at #MSC2024
BUT there were major signs that true leaders across Europe have had enough of the gap between words & action
& of key Allie’s failing to stand up for our common interests & for our security. 1/
Danish PM Mette Fredriksen pledged ALL of her country’s artillery to Ukraine - and called out allies who claim they have nothing left to give - saying that they manifestly do. And when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win they should Just Do It. news.yahoo.com/pm-says-denmar…
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius emphasised that Ukraine must win & be supported to do so (Olaf Scholz hasn’t said Ukraine should win & acts accordingly) -
& BP argues that as a defender of the free world Germany would have to spend beyond 2%
It seems
the🚦coalition is turning inward & de-prioritising key issues, including Ukraine
There's a mixture of complacency (about Germany's Zeitenwende) & delusion (about 🇩🇪 ability to ignore geopol & do its own thing)
V. Dangerous.
🧵
BLUF: Letting Scholz focus on uncontroversial topics like UA reconstruction (not victory) puts the cart before the horse, distracts from the need to create (& ensure) a stable security order, a stable peace in Europe.
This puts all Europeans, incl Germans at risk.
After all the 🚦 infighting, there is an understandable desire to find points of unity & try to make stable government.
But if that comes at the cost of making the reforms #Germany really needs & sells Ukraine down the river it is a dereliction of duty.