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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Dec 19, 2022 • 35 tweets • 19 min read • Read on X
⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵
2) Summary of #CCP's current #COVID goal: “Let whoever needs to be infected infected, let whoever needs to die die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production.” @jenniferzeng97

Dead bodies piled up in NE China in 1 night—
3) Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now possibly “hours” says some experts — let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is <1 day because it’s hard to PCR test that fast. The point is 🇨🇳 & the 🌎 is in deep trouble.
npr.org/sections/goats…
4) The deaths in mainland China is being hugely underreported outside of 🇨🇳. Through a survey of hospitals, funeral parlors & related funeral industry chains in Beijing—there is a recent explosion in funeral services caused by the sharp increase in deaths.
rfi.fr/tw/%E4%B8%AD%E… Image
5) Example—cremation in Beijing nonstop. Morgues are overloaded. Refrigerated containers needed. 24/7 funerals. 2000 bodies backlogged for cremations. Sound familiar? It is spring 2020 all over again— but this time for China, emulating more Western-mass infection approach. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Image
6) Westerns think there is a fever and antibiotic shortage now? ➡️Wait until China’s production is diverted from exports! Here—people rushed to a pharmaceutical factory to buy ibuprofen because it is completely sold out elsewhere! Dec 18, in #Zhuhai City.
7) Yes I care because I was born in China — but also because I’m an epidemiologist (my D degree is in it), & I’ve seen this shit show before. What happens in China doesn’t stay in 🇨🇳— Wuhan was our lesson 3 years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small.👇
8) I’m going to pause for a moment—am I saying this will be the start of another “Thermonuclear bad” #COVID wave worldwide? Not necessarily via virus directly— but the global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly. You can ignore my words at own peril.⬇️
9) 1-2 million deaths in China is a very common number lately—I’ve seen the models— it’s certainly possible. It could be higher if govt doesn’t do anything, lower if govt curbs virus with heavy mitigations again. ➡️But anti-China-zero-COVID folks should accept their hand in this.
10) We need more collective empathy in this world. Just because something happens in a faraway city somewhere that you’ve never heard of—doesn’t mean it won’t affect you. Chances are— in this world—it will affect you. And it may affect / harm our children… may they forgive us.
11) Schools are closed in Shanghai for the next month, and in many other outbreak cities. This comes just weeks after restrictions on COVID were lifted. Protecting kids is also protecting their parents / caretakers and preventing them from being orphaned by a pandemic.
12) so what is going on with China’s vaccination situation? There is a lot of vaccine resistance in the elderly. Additionally, the newer #Omicron sub variants, 2 shots not enough - and 3 shots of China’s main CoronaVac may not be enough again for bad evasive new variants. Image
13) A deeper problem lies in the weaker CoronaVac (by SinoVac) & Sinopharm vaccines. Notice how even with 3 shots of main CoronaVac shot, neutralization performance against newer recent #omicron variants is poor—this is bad. China isn’t using bivalent yet.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
14) That said, even with recent #Ba5 infection or a recent BA5 bivalent booster, while neutralization is improved, it’s only slightly better. But modest against some of the really troublesome variants China is facing. It’s not the same old Wuhan strain anymore.

HT @yunlong_cao Image
15) This is real—In case you need video proof of the cremations—Staff at Beijing's largest Babaoshan funeral house confirmed that all of its incinerators were working but were still unable to meet demand, resulting in a 20-day backlog...

HT @gchahal

16) BBC’s China reporter @StephenMcDonell tells me… “In Beijing Covid has gone crazy, must be millions infected really quickly. I’m sure other cities will be next.”

Watch this BBC report — “China is overloaded and in for a rough few months”…

17) Among those overloaded are home delivery (food) drivers… not enough of them to keep up. Many have #COVID themselves. Food delivery orders piling up unable to be delivered. It’s a shit show. (Screenshot from BBC video above h. ImageImage
18) That said, China has very recent approved an aerosolized (inhaled) vaccine delivered via a nebulized form—it produced a greater antibody response than intramuscular—& also raised antibodies over 9-fold, and at lower dose. Mucosal vaccines could be key.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35605625/
19) More importantly, inhaled vaccines also have the potential to induce a broader ‘mucosal immunity’, which could better defend against breakthrough infection, not just severe disease. This is why we need a mucosal vaccine trial funded soon. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… Image
20) Key—aerosolized nebulizer inhaled mucosal vaccine booster also performed better against newer #SARSCoV2 variants than muscle injected vaccines. This is key.

Again, this research is from 🇨🇳. US has funded zero randomized trials on mucosal vaccines!
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
21) While we know China’s old CoronaVac vaccine is weak, China’s newest aerosolized nebulizer-inhaled mucosal vaccine is likely more powerful — 14.5x stronger in eliciting antibodies versus CoronaVac. The US needs to invest in these next gen stuff.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
22) And yes, China has emergency approved their inhaled vaccine (by CanSino) already for rollout. But most vaccines being administered in China is still the CoronaVac shot. My hope is the new miracle aerosolized inhaled vaccines will make a difference. 🙏 cnn.com/2022/09/06/chi…
23) In case anyone wondering— yes, US has one in development too—Washington University developed one — and currently licensed to Ocugen. Yale has developed a nasal one too. But the problem is that there are no US funding for any trials! Warp speed 2.0??? source.wustl.edu/2022/10/washu-…
24) Back to China crisis—folks, I’m not exaggerating on the up to 2 million dead from #COVID in China in the coming months. Research teams have modeled it. It’s possible if no intervention. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
25) So how much did China’s COVID mitigation rules change? Actually 🇨🇳 lifted only some of the most severe—but still left A LOT OF MITIGATIONS—China did not throw rip up everything and reopen like UK or US did ([cough] @CDCDirector fail)—hence #COVID just that evasive. See 🧵
26) You don’t have to believe me. Many people didn’t in Jan 2020 when I tried to warn the “novel coronavirus” was a pandemic that the world hasn’t seen since 1918. And I’m saying that #CovidIsNotOver. I’m just an epidemiologist trying to warn… nymag.com/intelligencer/…
27) I’m going to take a short break. China situation is fast moving. If you want more of my research and data aggregation— subscribe ✍️ below. I’ll post this thread 🧵 there shortly. Stay safe everyone 🙏
drericding.substack.com/subscribe
28) I’ve been reading comments. some call me a “CCP propagandist” or a “communist shill”. Nothing could be further from the truth. Ethnic Chinese makes me care, doesn’t make me a shill. I have been a public health advocate for 16 years. Here is an old NYT piece on who I am… 👇
29) WHITE HOUSE'S National Security Council KIRBY says—

⚠️U.S. MONITORING OF CHINA'S COVID SITUATION, INCLUDES POTENTIAL IMPACT ON U.S. COMPANIES AND SUPPLY CHAINS

➡️We need to worry about supply chains if China #COVID explosion continues.

HT @DeItaone
30) 📍UPDATE—China 🇨🇳’s chief epidemiologist now says that “the worst is yet to come”, @selinawangtv. There will likely be 3 big 🇨🇳 #COVID19 waves coming—this is just the first. ➡️Next big wave will come after the Lunar new year travels in late January!
31) China has HUGE vulnerable elderly population that is unvaccinated or undervaccinated—➡️130 million such people. Mortality in this group would be likely very high— easily over 1 million if the virus spreads unchecked in China. This is why 1-2 million total deaths is possible.
32) China is still reporting 0 or single digit deaths, and not providing hospital reports to WHO. It’s getting ridiculous to say there’s nobody dying in China when the reports are clear as day from inside China. This overflow of body bags was even at a top hospital in Beijing.
33) let this sink in — **OXYGEN TANKS ARE DEPLETED** at even top level Beijing capitol’s hospitals. You know when that happens that it is much worse at secondary and smaller hospitals and clinics…
34) Frustrated staffers in Beijing state media also now venting that they can’t run certain TV shows because over half of staff are home sick with #COVID. I mentioned this on @NPR @hereandnow discussing 🇨🇳crisis w/ @tongscott—it keeps me awake at night. wbur.org/hereandnow/202…
35) Epic long lines at crematoriums… imagine having to not just wait for hours to cremate you loved ones, but have to do it carrying their deceased bodies for all those hours… let’s have empathy for the horrific #COVID19 wave 🌊 crashing into China. 🙏

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Jun 16
📍 THE 17 FIRED MEMBERS OF CDC’s VACCINE ADVISORY COMMITTEE (ACIP) speak out…

📍“As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses.” 🔥

Full text:

Vaccines are one of the greatest global public health achievements. Vaccine recommendations have been critical to the global eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio, measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome in the US. They have also dramatically decreased cases of hepatitis, meningitis, mumps, pertussis (whooping cough), pneumonia, tetanus, and varicella (chickenpox), and prevented cancers caused by hepatitis B virus and human papillomaviruses.1 Recent scientific advancements enabled the accelerated development, production, and evaluation of COVID-19 vaccines, leveraging novel technologies that are estimated to have prevented approximately 1.6 million hospitalizations and 235 000 deaths in the US alone.2
For more than 60 years, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)—codified in the federal regulations (42 USC 217a: advisory councils or committees)—has served as a panel of experts that reviews the most up-to-date evidence on vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (eg, against respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]), providing sound recommendations to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) regarding how vaccines should be used. ACIP recommendations are the cornerstone of the immunization program in this country. First, they serve as guidance and are the national standard for the use of Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorized and licensed vaccines, providing a unified and trusted approach to vaccinations for the diverse array of immunization providers across the US. Second, they ensure science-based and tested immunization schedules that are optimized for well-timed protection against serious diseases. Third, the recommendations affect insurance coverage and safeguard broad access for vaccines. Fourth, ACIP’s continued monitoring of disease epidemiology and scrutiny of vaccine safety inform timely updates to recommendations that have maintained the trust and protection of the population. This transparent and ongoing surveillance of vaccines is one of the most stringent around the world, historically making the deliberations and decisions of this committee a beacon for immunization programs globally, while also serving as the foundation for recommendations harmonized with leading medical organizations in the US.3,4
ACIP committee members have always been selected through a rigorous process based on their expertise in immunology, epidemiology, pediatrics, obstetrics, internal and family medicine, geriatrics, infectious diseases, and public health. Historically, committee members were chosen because they worked at hospitals, clinics, health departments, universities, and other organizations where they dedicated themselves to caring for patients, conducting research, and helping to prevent and treat infectious diseases. Members’ deep understanding of immunization issues ensured that vaccine policies were grounded in scientific evidence, aligned with the needs of economically, socially, and medically diverse US communities, and always considered the public value, trust, and acceptability of vaccines.
Despite recent suggestions to the contrary, health care providers and the US public trust ACIP. For the past 18 years, the National Immunization Survey has shown that 99 of every 100 children in the US have received at least some recommended vaccines by 2 years of age, consistent with acceptance of ACIP recommendations implemented by trusted clinicians (National Immunization Survey - Childof Healthy People 2030).…Image
2) Full text part 2:

This does not suggest the population is so distrustful that it warrants dismantling the process by which vaccines have been recommended. ACIP standard procedures have minimized the risk of alleged conflicts of interest and biases. For decades, members of ACIP have undergone a thorough application and review process to participate. Proposed members submitted letters of support from other known experts and peers, completed an interview process, underwent a background check, and disclosed financial interests that might be considered a conflict, including any professional or financial relationships of immediate family members. Historically, it has taken up to 2 years for nominees to be approved to join ACIP.
Once part of the committee, ACIP members spent significant time preparing for meetings, reviewing the scientific evidence, and chairing work groups that, along with many CDC public health officials, led to the final recommendations that were determined during public meetings, which also included opportunities for public comment. Recordings of these meetings, agendas, and presentations were publicly available. Additionally, members agreed to ongoing monitoring and disclosure throughout their tenure. For example, potential conflicts of interest were reviewed throughout their time on the committee. Statements about potential conflicts were required during each meeting and before each vote, and members recused themselves from voting if any conflicts were identified. These disclosures have also recently been posted on the CDC website for public scrutiny. ACIP was among the most stringent and transparent of the federal committees, and we hope those criteria will apply to any new members joining the committee.
The abrupt dismissal of the entire membership of the ACIP, along with its executive secretary, on June 9, 2025, the appointment of 8 new ACIP members just 2 days later, and the recent reduction of CDC staff dedicated to immunizations have left the US vaccine program critically weakened.5,6 These actions have stripped the program of the institutional knowledge and continuity that have been essential to its success over decades. Notably, the ACIP charter specifies that committee members serve overlapping terms to ensure continuity and avoid precisely the disruption that will now ensue. The termination of all members and its leadership in a single action undermines the committee’s capacity to operate effectively and efficiently, aside from raising questions about competence.
Compounding these concerns, recent changes to COVID-19 vaccine policy, made directly by the HHS secretary and released on social media, appear to have bypassed the standard, transparent, and evidence-based review process.7 Such actions reflect a troubling disregard for the scientific integrity that has historically guided US immunization strategy. The newly stated strategy to replace ACIP members with individuals who will “exercise independent judgment, refuse to serve as a rubber stamp, and foster a culture of critical inquiry” is already leading to warnings by academic and scientific institutions, professional organizations, and the public who for decades have known well that these sought-after qualities precisely characterized the now-dismissed members of the ACIP.5
3) Part 3:

As former ACIP members, we are deeply concerned that these destabilizing decisions, made without clear rationale, may roll back the achievements of US immunization policy, impact people’s access to lifesaving vaccines, and ultimately put US families at risk of dangerous and preventable illnesses. Vaccines and the anti-RSV monoclonal antibodies are lifesaving, and people in the US deserve to have recommendations and broad access to use them to prevent serious diseases. In this age of government efficiency, the US public needs to know that the routine vaccination of approximately 117 million children from 1994-2023 likely prevented around 508 million lifetime cases of illness, 32 million hospitalizations, and 1 129 000 deaths, at a net savings of $540 billion in direct costs and $2.7 trillion in societal costs.8Finally, as individuals, we remain committed to evidence-based vaccine policy, both through our ongoing work in immunization science, public health, and medical education, and by supporting future efforts to keep America healthy that uphold scientific rigor and the public’s trust.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 8
⚠️Tariffs On Medications Will Make America Sick

We might soon see the Trump WH impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals—patients will suffer and die.

During the past few weeks, President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff wars have rattled the stock market, decimated many Americans’ retirement funds, and promised to send grocery prices soaring—and his administration hasn’t even gotten to critical pharmaceutical tariffs yet. But that will likely be the next shoe to drop.
Trump exempted pharmaceuticals from his first round of tariffs in early April, but recently declared that he intends to impose “a major tariff” on imported medicines “very shortly.” These tariffs, he claims, will prompt pharmaceutical companies to leave countries including China and India and begin “opening up their plants all over the place.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a television interview in mid-April that these tariffs are coming in the “next month or two.”

What will this mean? 

Read on:
progressive.org/op-eds/tariffs…Image
2) The majority of brand name drugs used in the United States are imported. Even generic drugs often rely on ingredients and direct imports from China, including pain relievers and cardiovascular drugs used by millions.
3) The United States was already facing a drug shortage crisis before Trump’s tariff announcement. Now, his policies will drive upnot only the cost of medicines, but also other health care items such as X-ray machines and medical instruments.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 10
It’s a trap: CATCH 22—if you register, ICE will deport you. If you don’t register, you’ve now committed a crime for the first time, and ICE will deport you. Trump doesn’t care if you’ve paid all taxes and followed all laws—ICE will deport you.

apnews.com/article/illega…Image
2) The Department of Homeland Security announced that it was mandating that all people in the United States illegally register with the federal government, and said those who didn’t self-report could face fines or prosecution. ***Failure to register is considered a crime***
3) Registration will be mandatory for everyone 14 and older without legal status. People registering have to provide their fingerprints and address, and parents and guardians of anyone under age 14 must ensure they registered. The registration process also applies to Canadians who are in the U.S. for more than 30 days, such as so-called snowbirds who spend winter months in places like Florida.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Apr 3
Now economists know how scientists felt back when he pushed “hydroxychloroquine”
2) HCQ preventing COVID deaths has been debunked— and it’s now been linked with deaths.

@JoshuaPCohen1
forbes.com/sites/joshuaco…Image
@JoshuaPCohen1 3) JPMorgan on Trump Tariffs: “The largest tax increase since 1968” Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 28
My god—Earthquake (a Richter ~7.7) causes a skyscraper to collapse in Bangkok. Hope all the construction workers made it out.
2) this skyscraper collapse was captured from a distant car’s dashcam while on a highway

3) another view of the collapse. For those who lived through 9/11, this collapse is a bit triggering.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 27
Welp—kiss public health & medical research infrastructure in America goodbye for the next 4 years. RFK Jr plans to cut 10,000 jobs from Trump HHS. Image
2) this will not make America healthy again… not by a long shot. So dangerous and irresponsible.
3) “Kennedy is set to announce Thursday the planned changes, which include axing 10,000 full-time employees spread across departments tasked with responding to disease outbreaks, approving new drugs, providing insurance for the poorest Americans and more”.
Read 5 tweets

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