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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
@DrEricDing
Dec 19, 2022 • 35 tweets • 19 min read • Read on X
⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate >60% of 🇨🇳 & 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵
2) Summary of #CCP's current #COVID goal: “Let whoever needs to be infected infected, let whoever needs to die die. Early infections, early deaths, early peak, early resumption of production.” @jenniferzeng97

Dead bodies piled up in NE China in 1 night—
3) Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now possibly “hours” says some experts — let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is <1 day because it’s hard to PCR test that fast. The point is 🇨🇳 & the 🌎 is in deep trouble.
npr.org/sections/goats…
4) The deaths in mainland China is being hugely underreported outside of 🇨🇳. Through a survey of hospitals, funeral parlors & related funeral industry chains in Beijing—there is a recent explosion in funeral services caused by the sharp increase in deaths.
rfi.fr/tw/%E4%B8%AD%E… Image
5) Example—cremation in Beijing nonstop. Morgues are overloaded. Refrigerated containers needed. 24/7 funerals. 2000 bodies backlogged for cremations. Sound familiar? It is spring 2020 all over again— but this time for China, emulating more Western-mass infection approach. 🤦🏻‍♂️ Image
6) Westerns think there is a fever and antibiotic shortage now? ➡️Wait until China’s production is diverted from exports! Here—people rushed to a pharmaceutical factory to buy ibuprofen because it is completely sold out elsewhere! Dec 18, in #Zhuhai City.
7) Yes I care because I was born in China — but also because I’m an epidemiologist (my D degree is in it), & I’ve seen this shit show before. What happens in China doesn’t stay in 🇨🇳— Wuhan was our lesson 3 years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small.👇
8) I’m going to pause for a moment—am I saying this will be the start of another “Thermonuclear bad” #COVID wave worldwide? Not necessarily via virus directly— but the global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly. You can ignore my words at own peril.⬇️
9) 1-2 million deaths in China is a very common number lately—I’ve seen the models— it’s certainly possible. It could be higher if govt doesn’t do anything, lower if govt curbs virus with heavy mitigations again. ➡️But anti-China-zero-COVID folks should accept their hand in this.
10) We need more collective empathy in this world. Just because something happens in a faraway city somewhere that you’ve never heard of—doesn’t mean it won’t affect you. Chances are— in this world—it will affect you. And it may affect / harm our children… may they forgive us.
11) Schools are closed in Shanghai for the next month, and in many other outbreak cities. This comes just weeks after restrictions on COVID were lifted. Protecting kids is also protecting their parents / caretakers and preventing them from being orphaned by a pandemic.
12) so what is going on with China’s vaccination situation? There is a lot of vaccine resistance in the elderly. Additionally, the newer #Omicron sub variants, 2 shots not enough - and 3 shots of China’s main CoronaVac may not be enough again for bad evasive new variants. Image
13) A deeper problem lies in the weaker CoronaVac (by SinoVac) & Sinopharm vaccines. Notice how even with 3 shots of main CoronaVac shot, neutralization performance against newer recent #omicron variants is poor—this is bad. China isn’t using bivalent yet.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
14) That said, even with recent #Ba5 infection or a recent BA5 bivalent booster, while neutralization is improved, it’s only slightly better. But modest against some of the really troublesome variants China is facing. It’s not the same old Wuhan strain anymore.

HT @yunlong_cao Image
15) This is real—In case you need video proof of the cremations—Staff at Beijing's largest Babaoshan funeral house confirmed that all of its incinerators were working but were still unable to meet demand, resulting in a 20-day backlog...

HT @gchahal

16) BBC’s China reporter @StephenMcDonell tells me… “In Beijing Covid has gone crazy, must be millions infected really quickly. I’m sure other cities will be next.”

Watch this BBC report — “China is overloaded and in for a rough few months”…

17) Among those overloaded are home delivery (food) drivers… not enough of them to keep up. Many have #COVID themselves. Food delivery orders piling up unable to be delivered. It’s a shit show. (Screenshot from BBC video above h. ImageImage
18) That said, China has very recent approved an aerosolized (inhaled) vaccine delivered via a nebulized form—it produced a greater antibody response than intramuscular—& also raised antibodies over 9-fold, and at lower dose. Mucosal vaccines could be key.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35605625/
19) More importantly, inhaled vaccines also have the potential to induce a broader ‘mucosal immunity’, which could better defend against breakthrough infection, not just severe disease. This is why we need a mucosal vaccine trial funded soon. science.org/doi/10.1126/sc… Image
20) Key—aerosolized nebulizer inhaled mucosal vaccine booster also performed better against newer #SARSCoV2 variants than muscle injected vaccines. This is key.

Again, this research is from 🇨🇳. US has funded zero randomized trials on mucosal vaccines!
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
21) While we know China’s old CoronaVac vaccine is weak, China’s newest aerosolized nebulizer-inhaled mucosal vaccine is likely more powerful — 14.5x stronger in eliciting antibodies versus CoronaVac. The US needs to invest in these next gen stuff.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
22) And yes, China has emergency approved their inhaled vaccine (by CanSino) already for rollout. But most vaccines being administered in China is still the CoronaVac shot. My hope is the new miracle aerosolized inhaled vaccines will make a difference. 🙏 cnn.com/2022/09/06/chi…
23) In case anyone wondering— yes, US has one in development too—Washington University developed one — and currently licensed to Ocugen. Yale has developed a nasal one too. But the problem is that there are no US funding for any trials! Warp speed 2.0??? source.wustl.edu/2022/10/washu-…
24) Back to China crisis—folks, I’m not exaggerating on the up to 2 million dead from #COVID in China in the coming months. Research teams have modeled it. It’s possible if no intervention. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
25) So how much did China’s COVID mitigation rules change? Actually 🇨🇳 lifted only some of the most severe—but still left A LOT OF MITIGATIONS—China did not throw rip up everything and reopen like UK or US did ([cough] @CDCDirector fail)—hence #COVID just that evasive. See 🧵
26) You don’t have to believe me. Many people didn’t in Jan 2020 when I tried to warn the “novel coronavirus” was a pandemic that the world hasn’t seen since 1918. And I’m saying that #CovidIsNotOver. I’m just an epidemiologist trying to warn… nymag.com/intelligencer/…
27) I’m going to take a short break. China situation is fast moving. If you want more of my research and data aggregation— subscribe ✍️ below. I’ll post this thread 🧵 there shortly. Stay safe everyone 🙏
drericding.substack.com/subscribe
28) I’ve been reading comments. some call me a “CCP propagandist” or a “communist shill”. Nothing could be further from the truth. Ethnic Chinese makes me care, doesn’t make me a shill. I have been a public health advocate for 16 years. Here is an old NYT piece on who I am… 👇
29) WHITE HOUSE'S National Security Council KIRBY says—

⚠️U.S. MONITORING OF CHINA'S COVID SITUATION, INCLUDES POTENTIAL IMPACT ON U.S. COMPANIES AND SUPPLY CHAINS

➡️We need to worry about supply chains if China #COVID explosion continues.

HT @DeItaone
30) 📍UPDATE—China 🇨🇳’s chief epidemiologist now says that “the worst is yet to come”, @selinawangtv. There will likely be 3 big 🇨🇳 #COVID19 waves coming—this is just the first. ➡️Next big wave will come after the Lunar new year travels in late January!
31) China has HUGE vulnerable elderly population that is unvaccinated or undervaccinated—➡️130 million such people. Mortality in this group would be likely very high— easily over 1 million if the virus spreads unchecked in China. This is why 1-2 million total deaths is possible.
32) China is still reporting 0 or single digit deaths, and not providing hospital reports to WHO. It’s getting ridiculous to say there’s nobody dying in China when the reports are clear as day from inside China. This overflow of body bags was even at a top hospital in Beijing.
33) let this sink in — **OXYGEN TANKS ARE DEPLETED** at even top level Beijing capitol’s hospitals. You know when that happens that it is much worse at secondary and smaller hospitals and clinics…
34) Frustrated staffers in Beijing state media also now venting that they can’t run certain TV shows because over half of staff are home sick with #COVID. I mentioned this on @NPR @hereandnow discussing 🇨🇳crisis w/ @tongscott—it keeps me awake at night. wbur.org/hereandnow/202…
35) Epic long lines at crematoriums… imagine having to not just wait for hours to cremate you loved ones, but have to do it carrying their deceased bodies for all those hours… let’s have empathy for the horrific #COVID19 wave 🌊 crashing into China. 🙏

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 10
⚡️INBOUND SOLAR STORMS—5x mega coronal mass ejections - CMEs - that can knock out power are going to be slamming at Earth 🌍 between Friday and Sunday this weekend. Earth has only been hit with 3 previous severe CMEs in last 4 years. But we are gonna get 5x G4 CMEs in 3 days!😳 Image
2) Let this sink — this is the first GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH since 2005!

Folks - this is serious - it can knock out not only electricity but it can theoretically knock out airplanes ✈️ too! Image
3) Folks- it’s possible. Not only can it cause higher radiation and knock out communications, but a strong CME can knock out airliner avionics. “according to reports by aviation regulators, the issue is not whether it will happen, but when” 😳 thedailybeast.com/how-a-solar-st…


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Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 10
⚠️New sudden outbreak of MERS coronavirus with HUMAN TO HUMAN transmission—WHO has put out an outbreak bulletin regarding 3 cases in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 who contracted MERS (with zero contact with camels). All 3 were hospitalized and intubated. Index case has died in just 11 days from the onset of cough and a runny nose. ➡️Here where it gets interesting—the other 2 cases, found via vigorous contact tracing—both likely contracted it from the index case in the hospital—one shared a hospital room with the index case, while the other merely visited the same hospital’s ER—but he was NOT in the same hospital ward as the index case! Given second case was in a completely separate ward of the hospital, it makes me think it was likely #airborne transmission.

Shouldn’t we all masking in hospitals? @CDCgov’s idiotic HICPAC committee that sets hospital safety standards meantime wants to water them down. Someone should share this with the HICPAC folks, thanks. And demand @CDCDirector to get serious about public health again.

who.int/emergencies/di…Image
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2) previously, WHO’s Feb bulletin of Aug 2023-Feb 2024 only reported 4 cases, 2 had camel🐪 contact. None of the previous 4 had any linkages (ie no human to human transmission evidence). Thus, this new hospital-derived outbreak is concerning.
who.int/emergencies/di…
3) it seems the Index case’s only overlap with Case #3 was on April 4th— the day they both went to the same hospital’s ER. But otherwise they were in different wards. And by the time the 3rd case went to the ICU on April 15th, the index case was already dead (died on April 11th). So it wasn’t ICU exposure. It was the ER—➡️why which why EVERYONE NEEDS TO WEAR MASKS IN THE ER DAMNIT! 🔥Image
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Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 8
“Think of the impact [of #LongCovid] on inflation and economy. On the talented labor pool unable to work. LC is a terrible—in the U.S. so far—there’s been 16 million people, 4 mil out of a job—mostly young people in their 20s, 30s and 40s. Someone that used to jog 5 km can barely walk now because of permanent lung damage.“

(Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel)
2) Not just in the U.S… gee what happened to workers starting late 2020… the staggering loss of economic activity since the start of the pandemic is one of the biggest buried topics.
3) “One EU estimate suggests that long Covid may have cut labour supply in the bloc by up to 0.5 per cent in 2022, the equivalent of more than 1mn full-time workers. Studies in the US and UK have reached broadly similar conclusions — suggesting the condition has driven the recent increase in workplace absence in many countries”

ft.com/content/bb09a0…Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 6
Very worried—“The virus may soon develop the ability to transmit from one human to another… This is of great concern. Earlier birds… then it started affecting mammals and now the virus has evolved and developed the ability to infect humans…” @WHO Farrar
2) “We have to make sure that the H5N1 does not come across humans as it can easily develop the ability to transmit between humans.”
3) Last year, scientists warned of a key mutation that would help supercharge human transmission down the road — the critical “E627K” mutation in the virus’s RNA polymerase PB2 gene. ➡️Well, guess what effing appeared in a CDC report for the first time last month in an infected Texas man? ⚠️That very goddamn E627K mutation! This is mammalian adaptation. This is why WHO is warning we are maybe approaching the brink of human adaptation.

(Warning article about E627K from 2023).


(CDC report from April 2024).
science.org/content/articl…
cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/s…Image
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Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 5
💔HEARTBREAKING—These twins need a $4.2 million one-time drug to save their lives (Spinal muscular atrophy). Their mother’s health insurance (and her employer) @Mosaic_LifeCare conveniently told the family the drug was cut from their coverage precisely one day after they were born. Total coincidence, my ass.

It’s also a race against the clock to get the treatment Zolgensma for the twins before it’s too late. If Zolgensma is given soon after birth, children may develop no significant disabilities. Children who receive the drug when they are a little older may avoid a feeding or breathing tube, and capable of some movement, rather than a life spent immobile, or death (<2 years usually), if not treated.

Zolgensma is sold by @Novartis. The drug sells for $1 million in Brazil, but $2.1 million in the U.S. Also in Brazil, if the child dies of SMA disease within 4 years, part of the $1 million payment is waived. But not in America. Many patients have had to sue health insurance to get the treatment covered—often at the expense of further disability of the untreated child.

All this is further enrage, when in fact, federally funded NIH research contributed to the development of Zolgensma. ➡️READ: Taxpayer dollars helped create the drug. Now the public is being shafted.



There is a GoFundme but this shouldn’t be the long term solution for other families. @Mosaic_LifeCare & @Novartis both need to be help accountable.


wbtv.com/2024/04/30/new…
gofundme.com/f/eli-easton-r…
durbin.senate.gov/newsroom/press…Image
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2) how can drug makers dare charge so much? Because they can - it is the only treatment and the only cure. I always remind people that healthcare is a NEED (like air and water) and not a “want” (like a fancy widget) If there is a monopoly, they can extort you if it’s a NEED.
3) Free market people will try to trick you into thinking it’s just the “supply and demand” / “free market” at work. But that’s only works for things in which there is no monopoly, and for things like iPhones and fancy gadgets “wants” that you can simply pass up if too costly. But if it’s a NEED—like lifesaving treatment—(eg you will pay anything to save your child / family member’s life)—then the supply & demand curve COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN and is invalid. Big pharma and PBMs and your hospitals & health insurance premiums all exploit that in different ways. Don’t fall for “free market” bullshit that doesn’t apply to critical lifesaving healthcare.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
May 2
Incredibly frustrating that the @USDA again failed to include basic information about H5N1 genetic sequences from cows. All data had dates and locations scrubbed out—only saying “USA” & “2024”, which is useless for scientists to analyze for mutation rates.
statnews.com/2024/05/02/bir…
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2) The fact that basic information — called metadata — isn’t being shared about the samples “hinders our efforts a lot,” said Gytis Dudas, a senior researcher in genomic epidemiology and metagenomics. Dudas is working with a group of U.S. and international researchers to try to make sense of what the genetic sequences say about the H5N1 outbreak in cows.
3) A number of scientists have openly questioned whether the USDA is deliberately withholding these data, or even removing more specific information. 🔥
Read 5 tweets

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