ISW Profile picture
Dec 22 6 tweets 2 min read
#Putin and #Shoigu demonstrated that #Russia is not interested in reducing its war efforts or its war aims - despite the growing toll on Russian society - while presiding over a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Collegium in Moscow on December 21. isw.pub/UkrWar122122
2/ Putin reiterated that Russia will ensure the safety of all Russian territories including illegally-annexed territories in Ukraine while at the MoD Collegium.
3/ Putin and Shoigu repeatedly rejected the idea of independent Ukrainian sovereignty and emphasized Russia’s need to keep Ukraine within the Kremlin’s sphere of influence and defeat the Ukrainian "Nazi" regime.
4/ The comments further illustrate that the Kremlin retains maximalist goals for the war in Ukraine.
5/ Russia's maximalist goals include recognition of illegally annexed territories, regime change of the Ukrainian government under the pretext of "denazification," control of Ukraine’s political and social character, and Western granting of Russia’s desired "security guarantees."
6/ The reiteration of Putin’s FEB 24 goals indicates that the Kremlin is deciding to embrace the sacrifices of the war and attempt to push on to victory. The Kremlin will need to continue to ask for and justify great sacrifices from its people to pursue these unrealistic goals.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Dec 23
Here are seven additional key takeaways from tonight's Russian campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats:

1. #Putin’s use of the term “war” when referring to the invasion of #Ukraine has prompted some confusion within the Russian information space.
isw.pub/UkrWar122222
2. The Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery #Gerasimov, attempted to revive a debunked Russian narrative that the #Kremlin did not plan to invade #Ukraine in an effort to justify #Russia’s war in Ukraine.
3. The Kremlin found it necessary to claim that Russian Defense Minister Sergey #Shoigu visited the frontlines in #Ukraine for the second time in a week, likely to deflect criticism that Shoigu is not an involved wartime leader.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 23
#Putin is also doubling down on an effort to absolve himself of responsibility for conducting a protracted war in #Ukraine.🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar122222
2/ Putin made several statements that Russia seeks to end the war as soon as possible while simultaneously noting that Russia will not increase the pace of the "special military operation” because that would lead to "unjustified losses."
3/ Both statements are a part of the Kremlin’s consolidated effort to justify Putin’s costly war effort to Russian domestic audiences who are increasingly making greater sacrifices to fulfill the Kremlin’s unrealistic goals.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23
#Putin amplified another Russian information operation designed to decrease Western security assistance for #Ukraine, accusing the US of protracting the war by providing Patriot air defense systems and vaguely implying that these systems will not perform a defensive purpose.🧵
2/ #Putin has been setting conditions for a protracted war long before the US decision to transfer Patriots to #Ukraine, even stating on December 7 that the “special military operation“ would be a lengthy process.
3/ The #Kremlin has also long falsely framed any Western security assistance to #Ukraine as an escalation.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23
#Putin’s rhetoric is a part of an ongoing Russian information operation that denies #Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar122222
2/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Zelensky’s speech to the US Congress & the US transfer to Ukraine of the Patriot air-defense systems only “proves” that the United States is fighting a proxy war in Ukraine, & that there are no signs of readiness for peace talks.
3/ Putin also implied that Russia had hoped that the West would coach Ukraine into abiding by the Minsk Agreements but instead was fooled by Kyiv.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 23
NEW: #Russia's President Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Zelensky as a sovereign counterpart, indicating that Putin is not interested in serious negotiations with #Ukraine.

Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats:
isw.pub/UkrWar122222 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Putin did not react to Zelensky’s remarks to the United States Congress in Washington, DC on December 22, but instead oriented his December 22 press conference on US and Western influence over Ukraine.
3/ Putin reiterated his boilerplate and false claims that the US and Western countries have intervened in Ukraine since the Soviet Union, driving a wedge in the supposed Russian-Ukrainian historic and cultural unity.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22
.@nataliabugayova: The most urgent requirement of the US and its allies when it comes to targeting #Russia's capability to wage war against #Ukraine is ensuring that Ukraine preserves its momentum on the battlefield—even if the #Kremlin launches a renewed offensive this winter.🧵
2/ Ukraine has momentum and is on track to liberate more of its territory & people if properly supported. Russia lost its initiative over the summer. Ukraine has been conducting effective successive operations in Kharkiv & Kherson oblasts and is preparing additional operations.
3/ Putin is trying to break Ukraine’s momentum because Russian forces need a breather to reconstitute if Russia is to hold existing and capture new territory in Ukraine.
Read 15 tweets

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