Thread by @fundstrat

Did the #ransomware attack at @HaverAnalytics result in an inadvertent #FOMC projection error?
🧵

1/5

#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data

- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC

2/5

As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:

- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”

3/5

But here is what is at ‘odds’

- the MoM% chg in inflation
- would have to be staggeringly high to get to #Fed 4.8%

4/5

QUESTION: How could #Fed 4.8% 2022 inflation when inflation tracking towards 4.1-4.2%?

- how can #Fed forecast be so far?
- when #FOMC meeting was Dec
- @HaverAnalytics had a #ransomware attack (see below)
- the Nov #CPI was released 12/13. So would not have been updated

5/5
This is why the #Nov #PCE coming out on 12/23 matters

- we think core PCE inflation will be 0.10% compared to @ClevelandFed #inflationNOW forecast of 0.26%

- any figure below 0.40% would make #FOMC figure of 4.8% too high

Get the first word at FSinsight.com/our-services