Did the #ransomware attack at @HaverAnalytics result in an inadvertent #FOMC projection error?
🧵

1/5

#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data

- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC
2/5

As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:

- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”
3/5

But here is what is at ‘odds’

- the MoM% chg in inflation
- would have to be staggeringly high to get to #Fed 4.8%
4/5

QUESTION: How could #Fed 4.8% 2022 inflation when inflation tracking towards 4.1-4.2%?

- how can #Fed forecast be so far?
- when #FOMC meeting was Dec
- @HaverAnalytics had a #ransomware attack (see below)
- the Nov #CPI was released 12/13. So would not have been updated
5/5
This is why the #Nov #PCE coming out on 12/23 matters

- we think core PCE inflation will be 0.10% compared to @ClevelandFed #inflationNOW forecast of 0.26%

- any figure below 0.40% would make #FOMC figure of 4.8% too high

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More from @fundstrat

Nov 4
While Fed chair #Powell was "hawkish" in FOMC presser, his statements revealed key factors to "dovish" path

- labor “I don’t see the case for real softening just yet.”
- inflation “we haven’t seen inflation coming down.”
- housing “still some significant increases coming”

1/10
Labor statement below:
- Powell says no sign softening
- yet today's jobs report shows unemployment rate rose +0.2% to 3.7%
- that is a sign of softening

2/10
Inflation, Powell says haven't "seen inflation coming down"
- yet prevalent and widespread signs of price increases cooling
- see prior thread



3/10
Read 10 tweets
Apr 3, 2020
What we cover on #fsinsight member call today at 1pm ET.

- NY state outperforming best case Cuomo models
- Top 8 states (50% GDP) outperforming NY
- Why case growth marks relative bottom
- If Oct 08 (not Mar 09), what worked

Sign up for free trial fsinsight.com

1/4
8 states are 50% of US GDP
- CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA, OH, NJ
- of these, NJ is doing worse than NY

NY state is 4,750 cases per 1mm people, or 1 in 200 has COVID-19 confirmed. Could be 1 in 20 based on missed tests.

2/4
Italy stock market, FTSE MIB started to outperform global stocks when new cases peaked on 3/21/2020.

- market focuses on cases because cases lead hospitalizatoins which lead mortality.

- thus, cases is key metric

- for US, we believe NY state is the key state to watch

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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