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Doug Lewin Profile picture
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Dec 23 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Don't forget that estimation for peak Uri demand was by ERCOT, which is off by ~8GW tonight. Note that @AndrewDessler and student Jangho Lee published research estimating Uri demand at ~82GW. These forecast misses are a major problem. #txlege 1/
eartharxiv.org/repository/vie…
I said before the storm the 2 biggest wild cards were forecast misses & nat gas supply. If natgas craters due to the freeze, tomorrow night could be problematic. The risk of outages, though still low, is higher now that before bc of the big forecast miss.
This was Recommendation 16 from FERC and NERC. #ERCOT & @PUCTX will need to answer questions about why this forecast was so far off. Did they "add staff with specialized knowledge of how weather impacts load including supplemental electric heating?" 3/
ferc.gov/media/february… Image
Did they increase "retail level incentives for energy efficiency improvements?" As FERC & NERC note it's "one way to reduce load during extreme cold weather." Nope. Nothing done on this front at all. FERC/NERC cited this report from June 2021 #txenergy 4/
cgmf.org/blog-entry/435… Image
If gas supply is reliable tomorrow, we will likely be fine. Unfortunately, we're depending on an industry that effectively has no regulator. Cold comfort at best. Remember ERCOT is not even allowed to require gas producers to tell them when they "shut-in"... (cont) 5/
That's a policy decision. ERCOT is flying blind about gas supply. They should have a gas desk but the oil & gas industry wants as little oversight as possible.

But this is a matter of life & death. Private business interests should not trump lives. This is not OK. #txlege 6/
The oil and gas industry can make a lot of money when demand is high and supply is tight. They need stronger regulation & a market monitor. Let's hope & pray it goes well tmrw. And then demand better from policymakers the day after tmrw. This is not OK. #txlege #energytwitter 7/
This is, as the movie is called, "Disaster by Design." I repeat, it is not OK.

Free markets are great. You want to choose between restaurants, but you want health inspections done. Gas can be freely traded *and* regulated to protect the public. 8/
A good first step would be for #txlege to create an Independent Market Monitor for oil and gas. There's an IMM for ERCOT. Why not for oil and gas? Honest companies have nothing to fear but IMM could provide transparency. The Senate discussed this in March:
Again, I still think risk of outages is low but not as low as before tonight given the huge forecast miss. This is all extremely frustrating and preventable. We literally had warnings from FERC and NERC.

More updates tmrw as we look toward Friday night. #txlege #txenergy /end

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More from @douglewinenergy

Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 24
A few #TXenergy takeaways as we thaw:
1) The grid's still vulnerable. #ERCOT CEO requested an emergency order yesterday, writing ERCOT “may not be able to avoid the need to curtail firm load.” That is, outage risk was real. He cited “natural gas delivery limitations.” #txlege 1/ Image
Heard about this from @shelbywebb, see below. The language from ERCOT CEO Vegas was clear: "the loss of power to homes and local businesses in the areas that may be affected by curtailments presents a far greater risk to public health and safety."
houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
2) Communications are still terrible. Not one state official held a press conference or did a media availability to inform the public of this letter or why it was needed. This from @adelauchida was a common experience among journalists yesterday.
#txlege
Read 18 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 23
Grid update: Demand forecast is much lower than last night but ERCOT missed its forecast by 23% last night so that's cold comfort. A miss that bad tonight & conditions would be tight. Reports of gas supply ⬇️ 8bcf overall, ~3bcf in the Permian. Gas/coal outages ~9.5GW. #txlege 1/
Add it all up & still low chance of outages tonight, though higher than last night, esp. given the massive demand miss. #ERCOT and @PUCTX simply have to get better at forecasting demand and improving #energyefficiency. More on that here: 2/
douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
I said coming into this the two biggest wild card were power demand & gas supply. The drops in gas output weren't enough to cause problems yet. I don't think this level of reduction would cause outages. Keepin an eye on it though. #energytwitter #natgas 3/
Read 9 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 18
Why I don't think there will be power outages this week, a thread:
1) It'll be ~10° warmer than Uri w/no snow/ice so:
- peak demand will be lower
- shouldn’t be nearly as many issues for gas supply & power plants
2) Peak demand @ 10am instead of overnight
#txlege #txwx 1/
Peak demand forecast is 69.5GW. Peak during Uri was between 76-82GW. However, the power went out in the early morning hours of Feb 15 at ~69.5GW, so that is very high demand. *But* the peak hitting at 10am instead of 1am is a massive difference. #txenergy 2/
There is little to no expected snow or ice so at 10am:
1) we'll have lots of solar production (more on that below) and
2) workers can get to sites where there are freezing issues. In many cases, they couldn't during the Uri #texasblackouts 3/
Read 16 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 16
The @PUCTX unveiled their draft biennial report to #txlege (previously the "Scope of Competition" report). In the section on retail competition, they fail to note that 2 companies own ~80% of the retail market. Seems like an important omission, no?

Avg rate is 15-17c. #txlege Image
Report is here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5403…
@PUCTX also fails to inform the legislature that 4 companies own 65% of the generating plants in ERCOT.

PUCT notes "robust stakeholder process." Stakeholders/members of ERCOT will lose their voting rights in an ERCOT board vote this coming Tuesday. #txlege #txenergy Image
Read 4 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 16
"Residential demand is the low hanging fruit in Texas... For every dollar spent, the benefit reaped was roughly $3.80 in 2021...demand-side fixes would take less time & money compared with building new gas fired power plants." #txlege #txenergy 1/4
wsj.com/articles/texas…
"Texas households tend to use electric resistance heating, which involves an electricity-intensive system of warming up coils & then blowing air over them (much like hair dryers). Heat pumps, which use refrigerants, require much less electricity." 2/4
"@ACEEEdc estimates that implementing a set of residential energy efficiency & demand response measures in Texas would offset about 11.4 GW of winter peak load." But we haven't increased #energyefficiency at all since Uri!
#txlege #energytwitter 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
Doug Lewin Profile picture
Dec 5
The Senate weighed in on the grid & the @PUCTX's proposed market design changes last week. Today, the House State Affairs Cmte meets to ask questions of the PUC, #ERCOT, the Independent Market Monitor & industry. I'll tweet some highlights here. #txlege 1/
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
@PUCTX Livestream is here and the first panel has just started.
tlchouse.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.ph…

Another good summary of the events of last week from @rtoinsider and @tkleckner1 here
rtoinsider.com/articles/31219…
Chair Lake starts by saying it was "misinformation" that extremes weren't included in the study. They in fact did not include Uri.

Here's the quote from the study: "The 1980-2019 sample does not include the extreme cold weather event caused by Winter Storm Uri in 2021... (cont.)
Read 89 tweets

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