We all experiencing a very long bear market in #Bitcoin and #cryptocurrencies. We are about -77% in #Bitcoin price and below -90% in many altcoins🩸 In the following 🧵we want to show why we see this as an opportunity not the other way around.Your Stockmoney Lizards🦎
The market situation of #Bitcoin is often referred to as dead and there is no shortage of postulating new lows.
-12k, -10k (very popular), -8k or even -6k🩸🩸🩸 Everything is possible, but much is priced in already. We trade the future, not the present😘
Currently, we have the 4th major bear market in #Bitcoin. Compared to the last bear markets, there are clear patterns that repeat themselves🧊
We think we are at the end of the current bear market. All bear markets show falling wedge formation that needs to be broken.
In fact, there is always a so-called washout phase at the end, when many investors (most likely retail investors) leave the market. This is the last phase before the accumulation phase of #Bitcoin beginns.
Overall, the current bear market is marked by the post Covid-19 era. Inflation, Recession, increasing interest rates. In the end, however, it must be noted that #Bitcoin is an asset, not a stock with no earnings. #BTC is and remains inflation proof due to well known reasons.
Many technical indicators are literally screaming overbought. This is from the Markoanalyse always a good sign to enter a strong HODL position🧋
Note, we are not talking about short-term trading. #Bitcoin
The history of Bitcoin is lined with crash and so-called black-swan events. Especially the crypto exchanges play a special role here🥲
#FTX was and is such an event. But one thing is for sure, #Bitcoin will recover.
Especially the investment cycle of 2015 shows clear parallels and to the current market situation. Like today, at the end of the bear market and after final washout, the #Bitfinex crash happened (like #FTX crash now) 🦢
Currently, the price action of #Bitcoin looks very similar to 2015, although the macroeconomic circumstances are much worse. A popular comment under the tweets is: "this time is different" 🤡
Richard Wykoff, a famous stock investor, has described different market phases. One of the most interesting is the accumulation phase #Bitcoin is in. The Wykoff accumulation is divided into 5 phases, we are in phase C (Spring)🍿
It may well be that we still see a sideways price movement for a while, but we think that the worst is behind us, and especially technically speaking, there is hardly any room for 10k. The probability for the upward movement is much higher.
BTC is about to go nuts big time soon. Many are still in doubt and even more think we might have already seen the top.
Here's a mini-thread about why we believe the contrary is the case and that we will see a massive run in late Q3 / early Q4 this year.
1/3
Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.
1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute 2. Post-halving correction and redistribution: Retail adresses have bought the top and start to sell for a loss, while smart money is rebuying. You can see this when looking at these strong support levels in each of the cycles (in this case 53 - 56k)
2/3
What we describe as "short-squeeze zone" is the fact that a lot of liquidations are about to happen in this area. This will reverse many positions, induce a chartreak and turn bearish breakout traders bullish.
Important: Usually these events are preceded by a fakeout and subsequent drop before the actual rally starts.
There is an overwhelming number of #Altcoins in this cycle!
Not every coin will pump with so many new coins and scams flooding the market. A lot of advice isn't useful ("Buy AI. Buy RWA").
5 Trends of the current cycle - A 🧵
1/x
Before we start, some basics:
One reason why many coins haven't really pumped while others reached new ATHs is the fact that the money in the markets is flowing into a much higher number of cryptos than some years ago.
This makes it harder to get the big pumps right.
TREND 1: Age
We see that a lot of newer coins (ICO 2022 or newer) are amongst the massive winners.
INJ, SUI, RNDR, FET have outperformed older coins like MATIC, ATOM or LINK
Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?
A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation
Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.
A 🧵
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.
We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.
Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...
2/x
... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"
This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channel
10 facts you need to know about the #Bitcoin ETF hype.
This is not a thread🧵by Stockmoney Lizards🦎
1⃣ What are ETF´s
An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a fund with tradable shares on an exchange. Bitcoin ETFs, specifically, simplify access to Bitcoin in investment portfolios. These funds hold Bitcoin, offering a straightforward way for investors to participate the crypto hype without need of buying real #Bitcoin over a crypto exchange.
2⃣ ETF and the classic financial market
Until now, the crypto market has been decoupled from the traditional financial market. In the past, Bitcoin could only be bought via crypto exchanges.
As we are well aware, Bitcoin's history is marked by scandals and crypto exchange bankruptcies, with the most recent being the #FTX crash. This has repeatedly led to resentment in the past.
Large asset managers and financial institutions in particular have not yet invested in #Bitcoin, especially because of the uncertainty. In its early days, Bitcoin attracted idealists, developers, and visionaries, but not the big money. This will change now.
January - first ETF approval
(the first of several pending applications)
According to Bitwise, the estimated spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market within 5 years, or $72 billion in AUM. This is huge for #Bitcoin
March - FED start to cut interest rates
FED keeps interest rates unch for the 3rd meeting and its expected to see three cuts next year. Markets price 5.1 cuts for 2024.