C Schmitz Profile picture
Dec 26 7 tweets 3 min read
Russia has published a Video of a "sabotage Group" killed in Bryansk Border Region.
TL;DR I believe it is staged.
#ukraine #UkraineRussianWar️ #UkraineRussiaWar

Here are my findings 🧵: Image
The "big" thing on this video is:
They must be western saboteurs, because they use SIG Sauer MPX 9mm Submachine guns, previously not seen in the war.
We can indeed see 9mm MPX,these are indeed Sig Sauer MPX 9mm Magazines.

Notice something? They are empty. Lets dig deeper.
Notice the gun on the right: it is being blurred in a very telling spot. This spot is where US military weapons have their UID code, a QR code used for identification purposes in the US Military since 2007. It is blurred, and only on one gun. Do you notice another thing? :) Image
Cropped this one, you see there is no surpressor on the gun. And another empty magazine.

Where are the optics? Special Forces operate at night. You dont do that with FOLDED DOWN iron sights.

You do that with night vision compatible optics and lasers. Image
Also, why use 9mm? Because 140grain 9mm Bullets are excellent Subsonic rounds. Why do all the guns, except one, have no supressor on them?

It all makes no sense, this seems entirely staged.

I suppose the guns were sourced somewhere, at different sources, and used as prop.
The same also goes for the shown explosives. "They look western", but they make sure you can not see a lot number or anything that allows tracing them to the source.
Also: Special Forces take explosives shrink wrapped to a mission, so that they make alot of noise unpacking?😂🤣 Image
So lets summarize:
These Special forces have guns with no bullets, folded down iron sights, no surpressors, no optics, shrink wrapped c4. No, thats just badly staged.

my 2ct:
This is just bovine manure faked to let TASS show RU citizens that "NATO" is attacking them.

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More from @chrisschmitz

Nov 25
These are pictures of the „new“ service rifle of the German army, the HK416A8.

A short thread on the gun, and how it is a good(and bad) procurement.
#miltwitter Image
Starting from the muzzle, the first positive item:
the muzzle device is the (formerly) optional one, that was made specifically for QD mounting Surpressors built for NATO flash hiders. The grooves aid mounting and prevent carbon seize up, an excellent choice.
Next up, we can see that the barrels have a bajonet lug.
Not really useful for bajonet mounting, but still useful for other accessories.
Read 17 tweets
Sep 25
In der Diskussion um "#ukraine / #russland " wird gerne, z.B. von @JohannesVarwick, ein Einlenken mit der "Eskalationsdominanz" durch Russland begründet.

Ein kurzer Faden, warum ich anderer Meinung bin, inklusive Begründung und Belegen:
🧵
@JohannesVarwick Welche Formen der Eskalation gibt es?
Wir betrachten zu allererst die Räume Land, Luft, See sowie den Bereich "Zivilisation".
Dabei müssen wir immer zwei Faktoren betrachten: Quantität und Qualität, also wie viel vom möglichen wird gemacht, und wie schlimm wird es eingesetzt.
@JohannesVarwick Land:
Die gesamte Berufsarmee ist im Einsatz, es wird großflächig mobilisiert. Da ist Quantitativ wenig Luft nach oben, vor allem kurz- und mittelfristig kann nicht mehr Kapazität im Landkrieg generiert werden.
Read 20 tweets
Aug 27
After 6 months of war, time to look at the "current" front at which the war hinges, the southern front.

Long thread incoming.

Feel free to ask questions!
#ukraine #UkraineRussianWar

Lets start with the intial map:
As we have learned, a key factor are supply lines.
To underline that, I have combined above map with the openrailwaymap of the area.
Orange and brown are the significant railway connections of the area.

This combined map will be the basis of further analysis.
#ukraine
The first initial area to look at is the area of the biggest city, Cherson.
We are going to split the map into areas of interest, Cherson being 1.

We use the approximate russian area of control to outline the sectors, as we analyze the russian situation.
#ukraine
Read 19 tweets
Aug 11
Multiple sources reported MIG-29 today, from #ukraine Air Force. One Video that matches the reports was posted at @ennolenze .
Summarizing reports, a lot can be drawn from these spottings. Lets get into it (short thread)

@ennolenze Lets start of by looking at the jet in higher resoltion.
A #mig29, very clearly. Also six missles visible.
The four outer pylons have two identical missles, the two inner pylons have identical missles.
What can we learn from the plane, and mission, from that?
@ennolenze The inner pylon missles have very distinctive wings forward, and are very "pointy".
This strongly indicates that we are looking at R-27R, a medium range, radar guided missle, NATO Code AA-10 Alamo.
The bottom missle on this picture:
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wympel_R-…
Read 10 tweets
Aug 11
Part two of my #cmo research into the #SakiAirBase attack, brief thread.

As suggested by @CommandDevTeam, Iskander is possibly the closest to the "Грім-2" by #ukraine . So I am using a 9M723 Iskander-M in this turn.

The intial #ATACMS was inconclusive

@CommandDevTeam The issue that we have is that the #ATACMS simulation shows that the "impact" type, "no warning, no pictures of missles, sudden explosion", can be explained by the hypersonic, vertical impact of SRBM.
What can not be explained is the flight time (too short) and "twin impact".
@CommandDevTeam This is the data of the missle used in this Test #2, and an overview of the "overall situation".
Exactly like yesterday, Launch at Odessa by #ukraine, Target #SakiAirBase , missle used Iskander M to "simulate" the Ukrainian HRIM-2.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 11
I have checked the possible #ATACMS attack on #SakiAirBase in #CMO, which is never perfect, but always a very good guess.
Assumed launch site south of Odessa, launch time 10:00 ZULU/12:00 local.
(short thread)!
#ukraine #ukrainewar
This is an attempt to understand flight times, speeds and possible impact angles and speeds, as we have seen fairly large craters.
We are using MGM-140 #ATACMS Block IA, has multiple warhead options, the fact that submunitions are chosen here is merely a cosmetic choice.
Also make sure to head over to @rrichcord on his analysis and @OSINTua for sat pictures.
Read 10 tweets

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