Thread by @tdarling1

Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +1.51%
$GOLD +0.82%
$GBP -1.49%

$TLT +3.74%
$HYG +1.14%
$TNX -1.52%

$DAX +3.68%
$SSEC +2.23%
$NIKK -0.46%
$SPX -0.81%

#Bitcoin +1.37%
$COPPER +0.26%
$SILVER -2.58%
$WTIC -8.22%
$NATGAS -16.78%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!

#ADP private payrolls rose to +230,000 in December.

The initial response in the bond market was to push both the short and long end higher

Realizing job strength = FOMC higher for longer = eventual recession, the long end recovered with the big lower high in $TNX intact.

Asia finished the week mostly ↗️

$NIKK 25974 +0.6%
$SSEC 3158 +0.1%
$TWII 14373 +0.5%
$HSI 20992 -0.3% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2290 +1.1%
$IDX 6685 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7110 +0.65%

India ↘️
$BSE 59900 -0.75%

Europe ↗️ attempting to rebuild yesterday's losses

$DAX 14425 -0.05%
$FTSE 7655 +0.3%
$CAC 6780 +0.25%
$AEX 715 +0.1%
$IBEX 8633 +0.3%
$MIB 24961 +0.5%
$SMI 11076 +0.15%
$MOEX 2159 +0.1%

$VSTOXX 19.31

$DAX range = 13698 - 14567 ♉️

🇺🇸 futures ↔️ after $COMPQ -1.47% yesterday

$ES 3808 unch
$NQ 10715 -0.25%
$RTY 1757 +0.1%

$VIX 22.88🔺

$SPX range = 3740 - 3878 ♉️
$COMPQ range = 10054 - 10678 🐻
$IWM range = 170 - 177 ♉️
$VIX range = 20.21 - 24.10 🐻

GOLD and metals ↔️

$GOLD 1842 +0.1%
$SILVER 23.613 +0.8%
$COPPER 3.822 +0.05%
$PLAT 1063 -0.6%
$PALL 1753 +1.2%
$ALI 2265 unch
$ZINC 2979 -1.15%

$GVZ 16.78 🔻

$GOLD range = 1816 - 1867 ♉️
$SILVER range = 22.94 - 24.59 ♉️
$COPPER range = 3.73 - 3.90 ♉️

Hydrocarbons remain under pressure ↘️ with Uncle Joe's #SPR bid at 70-72 WTIC

$WTIC 73.48 -0.3%
$BRENT 78.44 -0.3%
$GASO 2.254 -0.55%
$NATGAS 3.58 -3.85%

$OVX 43.93 🔻

$WTIC range = 70.34 - 81.50 🐻
$NATGAS range = 3.48 - 5.43 🐻 ⬅️
$DBC range = 23.06 - 24.16 🐻

Grains trying to find a bid ↔️

$WHEAT 751 +0.65%
$CORN 657 +0.8%
$SOYB 1479 +0.65%
$SUGAR 19.21 -0.65%

$COFFEE ☕️ 158.65 -1.2%

$DBA range = 19.36 - 19.83 🐻

$USD ↗️ and building on weekly gains

$EUR 1.0497 -0.22%
$GBP 1.184 -0.55%
$AUD 0.673 -0.32%
$USD 105.32 +0.47% ⬅️
$USDJPY 134.56 +0.87%
$USDCHF 0.94 +0.42%
$USDCAD 1.365 +0.57%
$USDCNY 6.861 -0.3%

#FX vol 10.78 🛗

$USD range = 103.22 - 105.79 🐻
$GBP range = 1.188 - 1.214 ♉️

#Cryptocurrencies ↘️ small with vol continuing to compress

$BTC 16744 +0.5%
$ETH 1244 +0.6%

#Bitcoin range = 16466 - 16989

UST yields 🔺 ahead of #NFP
10/2s to -75 bps 🔻
10Y3M to -91 bps 🔻

MOVE 119.53 🔻

$TNX range = 3.65 - 3.95 🐻
$TLT range = 98.14 - 105.14 ↔️ to ♉️

Global 10Ys
UST 3.727
GILT 3.553
BUND 2.29
ITA 4.317
JPN 0.503 ⬅️
AUS 3.832
CAN 3.176

With further curve inversion and 💪 $USD, the market is bracing for a ♨️ #NFP report with consensus +200K, wages +5.0% y/y, and unemployment 3.7%

#ISM services is out 1.5 hours later with 55 consensus, -1.5 points

👁‍🗨 on wages and yields

Have a super profitable 💰 day!