#SuperImportant #Retweet
Will #IndianRetail flows to #Equity TOP OUT?

#Modinomics characterized by Record #Unemployment of the #Unorganised Sector & "unreported" #Inflation has ensured that Net Financial Savings of Indian Household is at a 30 YEAR LOW
What Does this Actually Mean?
🚩In FY22, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 7.3% of GDP (17.2 Lac Crores).
🚩In 6 months of FY23, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 4% of GDP (Rs 5.2 Lac Crores)
What Drove his Change? 2 Factors
(1) Rising LIABILITIES of households which increased to 5% of GDP in H1 FY23
(2) Sharp Fall in TOTAL SAVINGS. Past 5 odd years, TOTAL SAVING of households was ~20% of GDP. However, in H1 FY23, TOTAL SAVING of households has fallen to 15.7% of GDP
What Really Happened? if you track Volume growth of most Consumer and Consumer Durable Items, there has been very anemic growth. Almost all the growth has come from PRICE HIKES and lesser so from higher volumes with Consumer Downgrades. Essentially #SHRINKFLATION
Household Incomes/Salaries have NOT kept up with INFLATION and this is pushing the consumer to eat into thier savings to live. Eg. during Sept-22 Results @ICICIBank indicated that share of Beyond Top 150 Cities as % of Deposits which was 45% had fallen to 25%.
Besides that, with the property cycle & lower interest rates, more Households are taking Loans. Bear in Mind, that the Banking System has Only about 18 million home loans (350 Million Households in India).
Unfortunately, Interest Rates are Rapidly rising and this will be visible in 2nd Half FY23 which means that the DISPOSABLE income of Households will get hurt more as they make space for Higher 15% higher EMIs. So NET Financial INVESTMENTS (Deposits, EQ MF, Insurance will Suffer)
This might partly explain why Net Mutual Fund Inflows have Collapsed by 70% in the last 12 months...

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More from @TheFactFindr

Jan 19
#Daylight #Robery of Govt Money for the Benefit of Anil Agarwal owned Vedanta. How can the Board of Directors of Indian Govt Owned (29% Shareholder) agree to this Purchase ?

As a shareholder of Vedanta Am happy. BUT as a citizen of India, am Unhappy.

So why am I Angry ? Image
Anil Agarwal led Vedanta Ltd on Thursday informed Exchanges that Vedanta Ltd will sell its Zinc International assets to its 65% owned Sub Hindustan Zinc Limited for cash consideration $2,981 million (~$3bn or 25000 Crores) Image
So what does Hindustan Zinc Get for $3bn ? They get THL Zinc Ltd (Mauritius) whose financials in the previous years are follows
Net Income; $1.31mn …. It’s NOT a typo…. It’s 1.31Mn

Amount of net worth contributed by THLZ = (USD 408mn) Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 19
#AdaniEnterprises #FPO - ALL YOU WANTED TO KNOW

1) July-22, VenturaSec Valued AEL at Rs2821/share on a 12 mth view.
2) Global Rates Triple.
3) Jan-23, Valuation Doubles to Rs5999/sh
#genius... #mamaearth IPO Needs this dude!
#VenturaSecurities Analyst should join @CathieDWood
Just like that the #AirportBusiness Valuation increases by a Whooping Rs116k Crores (94000 cr => 211,000 Cr)
Does this post by @RohanSoares explain the Massive Jump ?

Just like that the Valuation of FMCG business (44% stake) Doubled from Rs23,700cr to Rs46,136cr ....
Essentially the Genius at #VenturaSec is valuing @AdaniWilmar at a whopping Rs122,700 cr (Current MCAP is Rs73500cr)
At Rs122,700cr, this is Indias 2nd Most Valuable FMCG Co
Read 7 tweets
Jan 19
Why INR will always Depreciate? Who does it benefit the Most ? A THREAD. pls #Retweet
This was the scenario in 2020. Yet INR depreciated from 70 to 74. Meanwhile the FX of Many Asian Countries Appreciated vs the USD.

Why did that happen ? RBI makes PROFIT when INR depreciates. INR is RBIs liability and $/Gold is RBIs asset. RBI pays 60000cr Dividend to Govt.
When INR depreciates, the BIGGEST component of GST which is IGST benefits the most due to GST on IMPORTS. GST collections improve when there is INFLATION. We are a price taker in COMMODITY PRICES. DEPRECIATION helps RBI and GST.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
This FRESHER data is wrong atleast for TCS and INFY since I used to work for INFY as a fresher in 2000 and at that time I had a TCS offer as well. INFY fresher salary was Rs2.1 lac PA and TCS was 1.8 lac PA. So TCS being 1.6 lac in 2012 is entirely wrong.
Second problem with your analysis is that you looks at REVENUES in INR terms.

Instead look at Revenues CAGR in USD terms or Constant Currency Terms.

Did the cos grow in USD above INDUSTRY or Below INDUSTRY. Use ACN as benchmark. Have ORGANIC acquisitions been Adjusted ?
Read 6 tweets
Jan 18
On #NYKAA (FSN Ecom), even at the current mkt pls and assuming the most aggressive PAT estimate for FY24, it’s still trading at 178X. Just does not make sense.

A more reasonable PE is 45X which were given for high growth SAAS companies that were making profits. ONE
ONE big mistake investors made when accessing estimates of #NYKAA was that the Avg Ticket size in the DRHP was Rs2500-3000 whcih people didn’t realise was due to RICH people who were NOT able to shop abroad and BUYING sitting at home (Covid) ordering in Bulk.
One more thing, many of these people are now travelling and buying stuff. Or thier friends from overseas are getting it for them.

One more thing. People spent more on Trying out expensive stuff since they were saving money on Salons & Beauty Palor Services.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 18
Not sure of @myogiadityanath expected his #Swiss Holiday to turn into a case of Criminal Case filed against him under Swiss Law. CM Yogi's visit to Davos to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, between January 16 and 20 thenewsminute.com/article/intern…
The complaint was filed with Office of the Swiss Federal Prosecutor today by Guernica 37 Chambers, a specialist group of international criminal & human rights lawyers under the principle of universal jurisdiction as provided in Article 264 of the Swiss Criminal Code.
Article 264 deals with ‘Genocide and Crimes against Humanity’. CM Yogi Adityanath is being accused of having ordered the false imprisonment, torture & murder of civilians between Dec '19 & Jan '20, to suppress protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Read 4 tweets

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