Thread by @virtaava

If we take Minna's @minna_alander analysis as quite probable, for the reasons why German is acting like it is.

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1616508970885124098

This would mean that Germany wants a frozen conflict, a stalemate.
A situation that would undoubtedly be more beneficial to Russia than Ukraine. Russia would most likely keep Crimea in this scenario, regardless of what international law and morality say.

This scenario would give Russia a breather, a much-needed breather to build its army (materiel and troop-wise) and influence geopolitics to its liking. They would have ample time to fortify Crimea more and more to build up for the next phase, continuing the war against Ukraine.

For Ukraine, yes it would be a breather for them too, but Ukraine would in this scenario lose and not be whole. This German envisioned no win for Russia and no win to Ukraine is actually a win for Russia.

This is something we can't let happen if we would be in this situation the festering wound in Ukraine would never heal and Ukraine would be justified morally and legally to continue pursuing the restoration of its land by the way of war.

This wound would never heal and we would see multiple wars fought in Europe.
Russia would see that Germany is the weak point in Europe, which can be strongarmed with veiled threats about possible nuclear conflict and so, they would seek again in a few years' time expansion.

Who would be the target then and would Germany again bend? This is a question that I would like to avoid answering.
So, we need Germany to wake up and see Russia as it is.
See the reality, not the projection.
#Germany #russia #Ukraine #RussiaUkrainiaWar