Toni Mikkola Profile picture
Jan 20 7 tweets 3 min read
If we take Minna's @minna_alander analysis as quite probable, for the reasons why German is acting like it is.
This would mean that Germany wants a frozen conflict, a stalemate.
A situation that would undoubtedly be more beneficial to Russia than Ukraine. Russia would most likely keep Crimea in this scenario, regardless of what international law and morality say.
This scenario would give Russia a breather, a much-needed breather to build its army (materiel and troop-wise) and influence geopolitics to its liking. They would have ample time to fortify Crimea more and more to build up for the next phase, continuing the war against Ukraine.
For Ukraine, yes it would be a breather for them too, but Ukraine would in this scenario lose and not be whole. This German envisioned no win for Russia and no win to Ukraine is actually a win for Russia.
This is something we can't let happen if we would be in this situation the festering wound in Ukraine would never heal and Ukraine would be justified morally and legally to continue pursuing the restoration of its land by the way of war.
This wound would never heal and we would see multiple wars fought in Europe.
Russia would see that Germany is the weak point in Europe, which can be strongarmed with veiled threats about possible nuclear conflict and so, they would seek again in a few years' time expansion.
Who would be the target then and would Germany again bend? This is a question that I would like to avoid answering.
So, we need Germany to wake up and see Russia as it is.
See the reality, not the projection.
#Germany #russia #Ukraine #RussiaUkrainiaWar

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Toni Mikkola

Toni Mikkola Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @virtaava

Jan 21
If you take a longer view than a few years, quite a few issues stick out like a sore thumb, issues that Europe and its allies need to solve. #secpol #RussiaUkraineWar #Europe #JEF #Poland
One Ukraine; the Ukrainians must win this war; any frozen conflict is a win for Russia.
Frozen conflict or stalemate is the least desirable outcome; that would only fester, and we would have a cycle of wars in Ukraine. 1/
Let's all remember that, by law, Crimea and all parts that are now occupied by Russia are indeed part of sovereign Ukraine; that is an indisputable fact.
In terms of European security, we need to stop and smell the roses. 2/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 18
The entire top management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine died in a helicopter crash.
Among those who died in the helicopter crash in Brovary, Ukraine's interior minister, deputy interior minister and state secretary.
According to the leadership of the Ukrainian National Police, the country's Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi, Deputy Interior Minister Yevhen Jenin and Yuri Lubkovytsh, State Secretary of the Ministry of the Interior, were killed in the helicopter crash in Brovary.
At least 16 dead in Brovary helicopter crash
According to the National Police of Ukraine, at least 16 people have been confirmed dead in the helicopter crash in Brovary so far.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 4
So, I did a little tallying up and came to the conclusion that Poland is based as f**k and will be the military power in Europe if it's not already.
Let's open up a bit about that conclusion.
We all know that Poland is again rearming itself and modernizing its equipment. Which is good and needed. They are also arming Ukraine which is also wonderful news.

Let me present you with the shopping list.
From South Korea: 180 K2 tanks and 48 K9 Howitzers.
48 FA-50 fighting Eagle aircraft. K239 Chunmoo (MRL) systems.
From USA 200 HIMARS systems. 366 Abrams tanks.

The only meme that conveys the scale of this...
PS: Poland please join JEF with best regards Finland.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 1
Crisis management and communications
Thread to those companies that are still operating in Russia. 1/24
I write this because we now have a perfect example of a company that is operating inside Russia, a company that falls under the humanitarian clause exception of sanctions.
I am, of course, talking about @Bonduelle_Group. 2/24
There are three types of companies that still operate in Russia.
A company; that is operating against sanctions.
A company; that is operating in an area that is outside of sanctions.
A company; that is operating in an area that is under humanitarian clauses. 3/24
Read 26 tweets
Dec 22, 2022
This is a Russian war, not just Putin's war.
This is Russia.
Update by the Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, at the 51st session of the Human Rights Council.
Based on the evidence gathered by the Commission, it has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. As for violations against personal integrity, we were struck by the large number of executions in the areas that we visited.
Common elements of such crimes include the prior detention of the victims as well as visible signs of executions on bodies, such as hands tied behind backs, gunshot wounds to the head, and slit throats.
Read 12 tweets
Dec 22, 2022
Give the gift of warmth. Buy a fireplace.
Omri Association and Salo-based companies in Finland; sheet metal manufacturer Stremet Oy and metal component manufacturer Metalli Piiroinen Oy have started a collaborative project, driven by Professor Juha Varis of LUT University, with his research team.
The aim of the project is to manufacture and ship as many stoves as possible to Ukraine. As a source of heat, the stoves are excellent because, unlike electricity and gas, there is no shortage of wood in Ukraine.
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(