A 🧵 about #WEF2023, conspiracy theories and #Ukraine️.

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories regarding the World Economic Forum -- the general view that they somehow control or strongly influence governments to undertake #BuildBackBetter and #GreatReset related policies...[1/n]
...against the interests of the people. Of course I understand the attraction: #Davos, the WEF's annual backslapping exercise, is attended by many powerful and influential people who often *do* enact policies against the interests of their people, and Klaus Schwab looks...[2/n]
...more like a supervillain than the characters in Marvel films. But, as Thomas Fazi @battleforeurope wrote in an excellent article for @unherd, the WEF has always been quite open about its goals and ideology. Founded in 1971 by Mr Schwab, the...[3/n]

unherd.com/2023/01/how-th…
...WEF sought to improve "the state of the world through public-private cooperation." In practice, Mr Fazi (correctly) argues, this meant cutting against the United Nations idea that global decision making should be in the hands of nation states and their governments. [4/n]
Instead, Schwab and the #WEF advocate for a system where decisions involve NGOs, civil society groups, academic experts and most importantly multinational corporations. What this means in practice, Mr Fazi writes, is that policy is insulated from democracy by transferring...[4/n]
...policy decision making from the international level, where electorates have some say through their governments, to the supranational level "by placing a self-selected group of unelected, unaccountable 'stakeholders' — mainly corporations — in charge of global...[5/n]
...decisions concerning everything from energy and food production to the media and public health." And this, we can see, is *exactly* the sort of globalism we've gotten: driven by 'stakeholder' interests (mainly multinational corporations) rather than electorates or...[6/n]
...citizens. Of course, that has unsurprisingly benefitted exactly the sort of people who attend Davos (as well as the developing world middle class) even as it has immiserated and eviscerated the Western world's middle and working classes. We can see this effect in...[7/n]
...famous Elephant Chart, below. It shows the real increase in income as a percentage in each percentile of global income distribution: the developing world middle class, between the 25th and the 60th percentiles, have done well, as have the global plutocrat class...[8/n]
...nearer the 100th percentile. The Western working and middle class, from the 70th to the 90th percentile have, on the other hand, been hammered. Which brings us to Ukraine. The #UkraineRussiaWar has done, and is doing, serious damage to the European economy. Including...[9/n]
...the UK, Europe has had to spend hundreds of billions of dollars equivalent to buy more expensive gas, some 700 billion on cushioning the blow of that to consumers, even as their industry is made uncompetitive because they can no longer buy their energy from the most...[10/n]
...economically rational supplier. In other words, the damage is running into *trillions* after only 11 months and before secondary effects on interest rates, inflation, etc are accounted for. This raises the question: given it was obvious this would happen in the...[11/n]
...event of a breakdown of relations between Europe and Russia, why did the Europeans acquiesce so easily to the US controlling Western policy in Ukraine when it was clear for years that that was heading toward a collision? In a fascinating article for...[12/n]
...nakedcapitalism.com, Conor Gallagher suggests an answer. He points out that most of the leaders and governing parties in Europe share the WEF view of stakeholder globalism. For example, he highlights just a few of the many high offices currently occupied by WEF Young...[13/n]
...Global Leaders programme alumni. They all believe in the supranational, corporation, NGO and 'expert' driven form of policymaking, insulated at least partially from the surly business of democracy, national sovereignty and governments with popular mandates. What...[14/n]
...do they care whether Europe still has trade? Afterall, our form of globalism doesn't care, and, as Mr Gallagher adds, "industry is an outdated concept to them". Russia, on the other hand "represents an existential threat to their ideology of oligarchic rule." There...[15/n]
...are obviously many more factors to the #UkraineRussiaWar and Europe's response to it (which are beyond the scope of this thread); however, this does offer an explanation for why those of a 'technocratic' globalist bent are so rabid on this matter, and especially the...[16/n]
...progressive left -- who I still remember protesting against the US installation of cruise and Pershing missiles in Britain and Germany, respectively, but who are now the fiercest pro war party -- something that has always puzzled me. But none of those if a conspiracy...[17/n]

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More from @admcollingwood

Jan 19
"It is a gas station masquerading as a country" -- Sen John McCain
"Russia doesn't make anything" -- Pres Barack Obama.

🧵on reassessing the size of the Russian economy based on an excellent essay by Jacques Sapir (@russeurope). It is often said that... [1/n]
..."Russia's economy is only the size of Italy's." Is this true? The chart below, ranking nations by nominal GDP, suggests it's roughly correct: it's a bit bigger than Italy, a bit smaller than Canada, and *much* smaller than mid-ranking powers like the 🇫🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇯🇵...[2/n]
Most economists, however, would probably not see nominal GDP as the best means of comparison. Nominal GDP simply uses current national currency exchange rates with the dollar to compare one nation to another, and so it fails to capture real purchasing power & inflation. [3/n]
Read 13 tweets
Jan 13
🧵To supply #Ukraine️, the US has run down its weapons inventories so much that they will take 3 to 7 YEARS to replenish (even at surge rates), per new research by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This has huge implications, for 🇺🇦 and, perhaps more...[1/n]
...importantly, for the US ability to defend Taiwan (as well as its ability to *deter* China from attacking in the first place).

First, the facts. The US has provided Ukraine with a range of military aid -- from assault rifles and 5.56mm ammo right up to world leading...[2/n]
...Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance capacity and its unique Palantir 'algorithmic warfare' system. Yet the weapons that have done most to prevent Ukrainian collapse on the battlefield can be split into four types:

i. 155mm artillery and rounds

[2/n]
Read 24 tweets
Jan 10
🧵The outcome of the conflict over #Ukraine - its terms and timing - will be of paramount importance, not just to the country itself, but to the geopolitical and economic outlook of the world for the next decade or more. It's therefore useful to have quality analysis of...[1/n]
...the potential courses of action on both sides from here. I'm very grateful therefore to have found the below excellent piece by retired US Lt Col Alex Vershinin (hat tip: @yvessmith). It's worth reading in full, but in this thread, I will...[2/n]

russiamatters.org/analysis/whats…
...offer a summary and also try to fit this of my understanding both of what's happened so far and the potential outcomes from a geopolitical perspective. First, Vershinin contends Ukraine and Russia have adopted contrasting strategies since the first phase of the...[3/n]
Read 27 tweets
Jan 7
This tweet - and entire thread - by @Alex_agvg is correct: the best way for the US to maintain its global position, and minimise the chances of a Third World War erupting, is for Europe to take responsibility for defending Europe.

🧵on why, and why it's increasingly unlikely.[1]
First, brief background. East Asia (or the Western Pacific) has become an issue because the balance of power increasingly favours Chinese domination of the region, but the facts on the ground haven't caught up. Instead, they reflect an earlier period when the USA was...[2/n] Image
...enjoying its unipolar moment and China was still weak. There is thus now a mismatch between power and arrangements. The US would dearly like to maintain the status quo because (i) East Asia will be the centre of economic gravity in the 21st century, and (ii) because it...[3/n] Image
Read 21 tweets
Jan 3
A thread 🧵on Lend Lease to Russia during the Second World War and its effect on the Eastern Front. @edwardkeyjf and @Hethers100 contend that the Soviets might not have been able to secure victory on the Eastern Front without US and British aid. This is incorrect. The...[1/n]
...problem with this argument is that hardly any US or British aid arrived in Russia in 1941, and very little for the majority of 1942. By the time it did start to arrive in significant enough volumes to make a difference, the Battle of Stalingrad had already been won...[2/n]
...with Operation Uranus, and much of the Voronezh-Kharkov offensive had happened. In other words, the Soviets showed that they could halt the Nazis and indeed thrust them back across a front hundreds of miles wide without help. What's perhaps not understood is the extent...[3/n]
Read 18 tweets
Dec 22, 2022
Wayne Dixon, a Leeds Councillor elected in May this year, is becoming a bit of a hero of mine. He's showing where Labour has gone badly wrong, but also how we could find significant improvements in our country free of charge. Since election he's focused relentlessly on...[1/n]
...getting the small things done. Cleaning graffiti, fixing vandalised bus shelters, filling in potholes, clearing away the autumn leaves from footpaths. His Twitter feed is full of these. They seem unimportant, but, when solved, have a cumulative effect on making an area...[2/n]
...much better to live in -- or, conversely, when left unchecked, encourage more anti social behaviour and disorder. Cleaning up the broken glass and litter in a park, making sure that road access is good enough for bin lorries and emergency services, and ensuring bus...[3/n]
Read 10 tweets

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