Thread by @ShamezLadhani

1/ Remember all the media coverage of #omicron causing so much severe #COVID19 in young kids?

We extended our @UKHSA #COVID19 deaths surveillance in kids & found:

ONE #COVID19 fatality per MILLION #Omicron infections in children aged <20 yrs …🧵

👉 sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

2/ We assessed all fatalities within 30 days of a positive #SARSCoV2 test in <20 year-olds during Jan-Mar 2022 when national testing was still available. We collected detailed clinical data from multiple sources to ascertain cause of death for each child

3/ During Jan-Mar 2022, there were 46 deaths within 30 days of a positive #SARSCoV2 test & 11 were due to COVID-19

👉All 11 #COVID19 deaths occurred after primary SARS-CoV-2 infection

👉 8/11 (73%) had underlying comorbidities, including 4 with severe neurodisabilities

4/ Of the 8 children and teenagers who were ≥12-years and eligible for vaccination (including six with underlying conditions) five had received two doses, one had one dose and two were unvaccinated

5/ There were 7,175,612 estimated infections in <20-year-olds

👉 Infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.1/100,000 with #omicron compared to 0.7/100,000 between Mar 2020 to Dec 2021)

That’s one fatality per million omicron infections!

👉2 fatalities in <5y, 3 in 5-15y, 6 in 16-19y

6/ Importantly, COVID-19 contributed to 1.1% (11/1,003) of deaths in <20-year-olds during Jan-Mar 2022 vs 1.2% during Mar 2020 to Dec 2021

👉 #COVID19 has NEVER been a major or significant cause of death in children or adolescents at ANY time during the pandemic

7/ Also, the infection fatality rate (IFR) during #omicron (0.1/100,000) was lower than previous variants:

➡️ vs 1st pandemic wave (1.0/100,000) 👉 10x LOWER

➡️ vs alpha (0.8/ 100,000) 👉 8x LOWER

➡️ vs delta (0.7/100,000) 👉 7x LOWER

8/ Because of lower fatality with #Omicron despite a very high infection wave compared to previous waves, the 11 omicron fatalities were equivalent to 3.7 monthly fatalities, which was no different to the 81 deaths during the previous 22 months (3.7 monthly fatalities)!

9/ To conclude, we estimate the risk COVID-19 death to be ONE in a MILLION omicron infections in kids

With ⬆️ immunity from prior infection/vaccination, infection fatality rates will likely ⬇️ further

Most fatalities occurred in kids with severe/life-limiting comorbidities

End