Thread by @_ppmv

1. What is ahead in the next 75 years?

Our children will experience Earth heating faster than in 12 to 55 million years. Learn from states' errors and asystemic, linear thinking of the past 3 years.

The next 3 years need to see international cooperation emerge. WHO @DrTedros 👍

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1620168152725475334

@DrTedros 2. My kind reminder for scientists and anyone who works in public policy. We've seen enough model magic in epidemiology AND in climate. SARS-CoV-2 should have taught you that reality denial helps no one in the long run. Please focus.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1519676051177279490

@DrTedros 3. What is the difference between Pliocene, Miocene, and Eocene trajectories?

Human civilization.

What makes resilient, sane, survivable societies possible?

International cooperation and a strong, effective, and independent - because well funded - WHO.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1479802948599357441

@DrTedros 4. Back to the basics:

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1615008612279095296

@DrTedros 5. We need science-based policy advice. Protect epidemiologists and public health authorities from political influence, so they can in turn do their jobs, to implement public health policy and the 5P's coined by WHO.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1601548817349738496

@DrTedros 6. Where I will contradict WHO #EB152's assessment: I think the history of SARS 2002-2004 shows that we CAN end even SARS 2020-(202?). Some of us should probably work on outlining how exactly.

Scholars, please focus. Funding organizations, over to you.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1601311718285922304

@DrTedros 7. Policy ambition needs to rise to the scale of the challenge.

Thanks all for your hard work and care! Be well,

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1616371439921397766

@DrTedros 8. Note on health politics: I doubt that states' current level of ambition will suffice. Weigh the risk of declaring premature ends to the COVID-19 PHEIC against the hard work but genuine promise of successful SARS-CoV-2 suppression or elimination. Ty all,

https://twitter.com/FilesGeneva/status/1620387482717274115

@DrTedros 9. The climate view, for anyone who hasn't integrated both global challenges yet in their professional work:

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1515639157808414720

@DrTedros 10. Background,

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1554731343543779329

@DrTedros 11. Most scientists hope the more optimistic stories they tell, the better ("Yes we can do 1.5 or 2°C!"😬).

We understand, but they misunderstand how law, politics or risk management work. The opposite is true. Statistical constructs like carbon budgets are double-edged swords.

@DrTedros 12. My concise climate view, for those new to the field or to system dynamics. High-order nonlinear feedback structures in the health and climate system are highly counterintuitive. Most people feel they understand them; I'd bet few of us do, incl. myself.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1511394284272033796

@DrTedros 13. Dennis Meadows 1/2:

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1511394302982868995

@DrTedros 14. Dana Meadows 2/2.

Maybe take it from here; I hope such little threads helped some.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1616379130517258243

@DrTedros 15. The history of the 1889 coronavirus pandemic provides some further evidence.

Called 'Russian flu', but ongoing research hints that it may have been not influenza, but in reality HCoV-OC43. Historians, if you can add insights, absolutely do.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1619681596864618498

@DrTedros 16. International aviation didn't perpetually spread new VoC worldwide in the 1889 pandemic. Nor is OC43 ACE2-bound or mutates at rates high enough to escape most drugs and vaccines in months to years.

SARS-2003, OC43-1889 show us the best-case scenarios.

https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1619686221692944392