Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Feb 1 22 tweets 14 min read
1. Where do we stand on COVID-19 in Year Four?

SARS-CoV-2 is slowly reverting to its long-term trend of increasing viral load (=severity) after a one-year surprise dip thanks to Omicron.

Most people seem wildly determined to learn by experience. Good luck mates, you'll need it!
3. It was never easier to be a Good person than today. No need to invent novel ideas like "hygiene" for infants. All you need to do is take and apply what already exists, and was common sense until people grew enamoured with the idea of "Living with SARS".
4. Don't halve human life expectancy.

I don't care about your climate or other policy views on this: if SARS is your way of governing the descent of humanity into a far more primitive, cruel, short-lived, form, then you're not supposed to be in charge.
5. Once again for emphasis: "Don't halve human life expectancy."

Any kindergarten child understands this message; any politician should as well. It could hardly be simpler.

We are far along the way already, ever since Omicron emerged.
6. Simple down-to-earth message for anyone in your lives:
7. Simple high-level message for anyone professionally engaged in politics or analysis. You always have a choice. We can stop the gobal spread of VoC tomorrow if we care. It's a political problem, far more than the overwhelming eng/natsci focus on twitter.
I hope this and related threads cleared some confusion. Be well everyone!
Why not share this, relatively few views for some reason:
Share this with those who think we need to learn to "Live with SARS" - a tragically naive idea if ever I heard one:
Happy third birthday to this prescient tweet.

The public isn't being told Omicron (XBB.1.5+) reset everything:
RAT & PCR tests,
Antibody treatment,
Bivalent vaccine antibodies.
We are back to square zero.
SARS doesn't kill—it disables. Wear a mask.

It's a global policy problem.
8. Today is also the third birthday of the retraction of Pradhan et al 2020, "Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag". Quoted 164 times, its muzzling was a low point for science. ht @armarcus @ivanoransky biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
@armarcus @ivanoransky 9. I hope you all read the current literature. We're pursuing policy - and research funding! - that will almost certainly fail. It's not hard to do better. We probably should. mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/3…
@armarcus @ivanoransky 10. Was Pradhan 2020 right? (hashtag #pradhanwasright)

Technically not, but that's the normal process of science.

The forced retraction from the highest level had a chilling effect on science, putting billions at risk.

Many were & remain complicit.

See frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
@armarcus @ivanoransky The uncanny similarity in genomic organization, enzymatic and structural proteins explains the shared evolutionary potential of SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1.

COVID-19 vaccines won't succeed.

Fantini 2023 show what 40 years of HIV science teach us.
ganglioside, lipid raft, #quasispecies
@armarcus @ivanoransky * Zhang 2020, used to 'refute' Pradhan 2020, may be flawed. RatG13 and other genomes were mysteriously 'discovered' after SARS-CoV-2 emerged. An elaborate game of mirrors and limited hangouts for law enforcement. Scientists are too naive & untrained.

Not my circus not my monkeys
@armarcus @ivanoransky 12. Focus: 'This retrovirus and coronavirus share common molecular mechanisms in entry mechanisms, a potent virotoxin activity and induce similar pathological symptoms in GI/brain. SARS-CoV-2 infection can induce an immunosuppression, a hallmark of HIV-1 disease.' We told you all
@armarcus @ivanoransky @T_Brautigan and others been going on about Japan/Israel and HLA haplotypes. My new favorite theory is that he's secretly no time traveler but a modest Nobel Prize laureate. May be less cool, but just as well as long as our warnings are taken seriously. 🙏
Excursion END, sorry if it was a bit much for anyone. I doubt we have the luxury of time in year Four, hence the regular reminder(s).
13. German mask and isolation mandates are ending tomorrow, accelerating the pandemic. Above is no thread of anger; just a simple minimal intro to the basic level of knowledge every student needs to have.

From now on there will be SARS+ students in class.

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More from @_ppmv

Feb 1
Intellectuals who promote "living with SARS" policy don't know the real risk as they never studied the primary literature. German examples I appreciate for otherwise good FP analysis: @fuecks @ulrichspeck @thorstenbenner etc. Can't deny that it's intriguing to see tragedy unfold!
Few seem to analyze global affairs with the scientific rigor needed to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Schengen/EU, let alone worldwide. Thus we now face great risk.

More of us should work to build sustainable models. This however will require funding. 🫠
3. What's next?

SARS-CoV-2 will evolve for higher viral load, unlike influenza, and higher surface electrostatic potential, like HIV-1.

Germany's last mandates ended today; our policy will fail.

All: read and mask for your own health and security (N95). ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Feb 1
1. The shock of 2020: we learned a pandemic can strike US out of the blue.

We worried climate would lose the little salience we'd won in 2019 and worked unpaid overtime for months/years to link both to deeper socioeconomic problem structures.

System dynamics + #syndemic theory.
2. The shock of 2021 was Omicron: we learned how eagerly people dismissed it.

Spoiler: we then pissed away one year telling ourselves it was "mild", "a natural vaccine", "we were lucky"; rather than taking preparations for SARS eradication, which would work just like in 2003.
3. The surprise of 2022 was seeing the last #ZeroCovid countries like New Zealand, Taiwan and China remove protections even though they everyone who was remotely interested and science-literate knew what would happen.

The real shock is: No one has a plan.
ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
Wir alle sind #vulnerabel: LongCovid Symptome können Monate nach Konvaleszenz einsetzen.

#LongCovid ist #unheilbar. incurable

SARS muss nicht töten, um Euch aus dem Leben zu reißen.

Ihr werdet es nur auf Twitter hören. N95 und Augenschutz zur eigenen Sicherheit und Gesundheit.
1. Lauterbach warnte vor unheilbarer Immunschwäche durch #Corona. "Wer sich öfter mit Corona infiziert, läuft offenbar Gefahr, an einer unheilbaren Immunschwäche zu erkranken." - Ja, wir haben 20 Jahre Erfahrung mit SARS-Überlebenden.

LongSARS = LongCOVID
2. Die Warnung stand für ca. 12 Stunden. Ich hätte echt Erzieher werden sollen.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 31
Think the Unthinkable. (1) States need to start international cooperation on climate change and SARS-CoV-2 in the next three years. (2) Links update weekly to daily (COVID-19/climate).
coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5…
polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/nc/?-so…
…id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu
outbreak.info/location-repor… ImageImageImageImage
1. Don't ask me how the outbreak.info tracking works; I just took a @T_Brautigan link and hit buttons at random until it roughly made sense. (There's 100% better ways to display this.) Legend:
Read 9 tweets
Jan 31
1. What is ahead in the next 75 years?

Our children will experience Earth heating faster than in 12 to 55 million years. Learn from states' errors and asystemic, linear thinking of the past 3 years.

The next 3 years need to see international cooperation emerge. WHO @DrTedros 👍 Image
@DrTedros 2. My kind reminder for scientists and anyone who works in public policy. We've seen enough model magic in epidemiology AND in climate. SARS-CoV-2 should have taught you that reality denial helps no one in the long run. Please focus.
@DrTedros 3. What is the difference between Pliocene, Miocene, and Eocene trajectories?

Human civilization.

What makes resilient, sane, survivable societies possible?

International cooperation and a strong, effective, and independent - because well funded - WHO.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 31
Says @RoyScranton, "Amidst the stresses, grief, and terrors of life, there is this, too: a rich ongoing conversation, an elaborate tapestry of narrative and thought." - Adding the SARS-CoV-2 library, a virus of epic, poetic qualities. Note the juxtaposition of Pope and pregnancy, Image
And yes, you'll be forgiven for thinking the library may need some work. Not top of the agenda though; no one pays me for this.
We will pay dearly for not better structuring the ongoing conversation - and resultant political priorities; I'll recommend placing this high on the public agenda. Background as per the kind @fitterhappierAJ,
Read 4 tweets

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