In light of Loblaw's inept efforts on social media to justify its super-sized inflation-fueling profits, this is an opportune time to remind shoppers of four crucial economic facts regarding supermarket profitability: 🧵
A. Food retail profits have more than doubled from pre-pandemic norms. /3
B. Their higher profits are NOT the result of a constant profit margin collected from a growing base of sales. Claims to this effect are outright lies. The average margin has increased by three-quarters since the pandemic. /4
C. Perversely, the actual VOLUME of food sales has been falling since the lockdowns & their panic buying. Painfully, Canadians are now buying LESS GROCERIES than before the pandemic (but paying much more for them). Supermarkets' REAL business is shrinking, but profits are up./5
D. Yes, food processors are jacking up their prices: and like the supermarkets, far more than justified by their own higher costs. Food manufacturing profit has also grown since the pandemic, but less dramatically than for the food retail business. /6
We don't have to take sides in finger-pointing between oligopolistic retailers like Loblaw & oligopolistic processors like Cargill or PepsiCo. Both camps have taken advantage of supply disruptions & consumer desperation to fatten profits amidst deep economic & social crisis. /7
Fun fact: BOTH food retailers & food processors made the @CntrFutureWork's top-15 list of super-profitable sectors that have led Canadian inflation. These 15 sectors account for more than 100% of the growth in economy-wide profits (to record share of GDP) & most CPI inflation. /8
However, 13 other sectors have profited even MORE dramatically from the pandemic and resulting disruptions: incl. energy, banking, mining, real estate, building materials. Supermarket super-profits should be the start of a bigger conversation. centreforfuturework.ca/2022/12/02/fif…
This will be fun! 👇
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🧵Consumer prices fell 0.6% in 🇨🇦 in Dec., yr/yr CPI growth fell to 6.3% (from 8.1% in June). This is good. But lest anyone interpret this as evidence that Bank of Canada tightening is 'working', or relief is imminent, let's review the short history of this inflation. #cdnecon /2
Pandemic caused big breaks in global supply (not fully repaired yet) & big shifts in global demand (mostly, not fully, rebalanced). Govt stimulus maintained aggregate demand & prevented a depression. For a short time, demand exceeded supply (mostly due to constrained supply). /3
Quick phase-out of COVID supports then cut household spending power quickly; it is now below pre-COVID trend. Supply has rebounded but still not caught up to pre-COVID trend. We are currently in a situation where both supply and demand are below potential. /4
Also true in most other OECD countries too, incl. Canada and Australia (both have record-high profit shares). It is decisions by firms to increase prices that are the proximate cause of inflation, and they've been lifting them substantially more than their own costs require. /2
I'm amazed at how both the economic right & moral legitimacy of firms literally *causing* inflation are absolutely taken for granted in policy discussions of inflation control. Do we blame 'greed'? Of course not: firms are *supposed* to maximize their profits! #WhatsTheDiff /3
In this view the only way to stop firms from increasing prices more than costs is to take away purchasing power from people paying those prices: punishing the victims. Trying to *protect* the victims (with higher wages, benefits, subsidies) is then seen as 'causing' inflation. /4
Fine story by @MESandbu for @FT on sustained weakness of business capex across G7 and its consequences (paywall): ft.com/content/3a8731…. I've argued for yrs the greatest contradiction of neoliberalism is weakness of biz investmt, DESPITE the painful favours done for capital. /2
Profit shares are up strongly in most OECD countries thx to neoliberal policies (to suppress labour costs, cut corp tax, deregulate & privatize). Yet capital does less work, not more, measured by its contribution to GDP. This chart from 2nd edition of economicsforeveryone.ca. /3
Net investmt got even weaker after COVID (sometimes <0). Company tax cuts only throw good money after bad: they've had no effect on private capital spending. I analyzed the 🇨🇦 failure here: centreforfuturework.ca/2020/08/26/the…. And the 🇺🇸 failure here (pp74-90): paecon.net/PAEReview/issu…. /4
Ontario's plan to guarantee a 'minimum wage' of $15/hr for gig workers (but ONLY for time engaged on an assignment) will have ABSOLUTELY ZERO impact on the incomes of gig workers. Anyone who thinks it means something does not understand how the gig business model works #canlab…2
Gig workers spend a great deal of time (often OVER HALF) waiting for assigned fares/tasks, or traveling to central hubs. It's bad enough this unpaid time is excluded from this 'minimum wage'. Eg. if you spend half your work day waiting, then the 'min. wage' falls to $7.50 …3
Even worse is the impact of the endogeneity of labour supply in the platform model. Uber & co depend on enough workers signing on to keep a surplus pool of drivers available to meet demand. The cost of unpaid waiting time is part of the calculation drivers make in signing on…4
How do EMPLOYERS benefit from paid sick days? Let me count the ways (8): 1. Workers staying home when ill protects health of colleagues. 2. 'Presenteeism' (people coming to work when they can't actually do the job) costs billions. 3. It's a basic decent employment benefit that...
... will help employers retain workers and address their so-called labour 'shortage'. 4. Protecting public health by limiting spread of COVID (& other diseases) results in a stronger economy & higher sales. 5. It allows workers to treat illness faster & get better sooner. ...
6. It boosts the brand of employers, showing they're a company that respects its workers & the public. 7. Superior productivity of healthy workers reduces unit labour costs. 8. Employers who compel staff to work when ill are demonstrating highly dubious business acumen. ...
Decent, stable work and income are obviously critical for most people. Politicians know it, so they're all trying to look like friends of the workers. But which policies would help & which would hurt? Follow this thread for my takes from tonight's #Elxn44 debate. @CntrFutureWork
Phasing out fossil fuels over 20 yrs = a shift of 8000 jobs per year. Retirement absorbs over ½ of those. We could offer full adjustment packages for the others ($250K each) at a cost of $1b/year. Denying the transition doesn't help; starting early does. centreforfuturework.ca/2021/01/18/emp…
Mr. O'Toole's low carbon savings accounts have not been costed, no-one knows how this would work. #Elxn44#cdnpoli