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@Tendar

Nov 19

On February 24, 2022, exactly 1000 days ago Russia launched the full-scale war against Ukraine, a war which in fact started in February 2014 with the occupation and annexation of Crimea. Looking back, let is review what strategic goals Russia has (not) achieved. I summarized 10 objectives which were laid out during but also during the full scale war.

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Objective 1: Conquering Kyiv

The takeover of Gostomel airport near Kyiv was crucial for a swift takeover of Ukraine's capital and by extension the country altogether. The conscripts defending the airport, however, delayed the Russian advance of Russian VDV paratroopers long enough and blocked the runway so that no Russian reinforcements could arrive on time.

Ukrainian elite formations could establish defense perimeters around the Ukrainian capital and eventually drove the invasion back. During this process, massive amounts of Russian equipment have been taken, which will play a crucial role for the coming months and years.

Result: Decisive Russian failure

Objective 2: Toppling or at least expelling the Ukrainian government and installing a puppet regime.

The takeover of Kyiv aimed to install a puppet regime similar to Belarus. It supposed to be headed by Medvedchuk. Due to the failed takeover of Kyiv but also unwillingness of the Ukrainian government to give up the capital and especially the people on the streets, the Ukrainian government and statehood has remained intact.

Result: Decisive Russian failure

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@Tendar

Nov 17

Finland, a country with a long border with Russia and in striking distance to crucial Russian bases such as Murmansk naval port, Olenya air base or even Sankt Petersburg, joint NATO in 2023, but no Russian missiles or drones hit the country when it announced that it wants to join the alliance. (1/5)

Finland is the living proof for several facts:

1. Russia is not threatened by NATO. Moscow itself claimed it has "no problems Finland being NATO member"

2. If you have a strong military, Russia is deterred

3. Russia never honor treaties, only strength

4. Shared security (NATO) is essential

(2/5)

Russian excuses why they attack nations are redundant and lies. It is not about them. It is about imperial Russia. Russia is the bully which is always jealous and brutal. It is an entity where people leave in droves, where cities are decaying and life span is short. (3/5)

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@Tendar

Nov 22, 2023

Putin is the biggest loser of the last 10 years and here is my list of reasons why. Let me elaborate:

1.) 2013/2014 Putin tried to install Janukovic as a puppet dictator in Ukraine, similar to Lukashenko in Belarus. His scheme fell apart and Janukovic was fleeing shortly later.

Putin failed.

2.) 2014 Putin tried to take the Donbas and to expel the Ukrainian army by using Russian troops disguised as rebels. The Ukrainian army came back, destroyed most of those elements and established a contact line.

Putin failed.

3.) During the Minsk 1/2 talks, Putin tried to carve the eastern regions out from the Ukrainian state. Ukrainians resisted that trap.

Putin failed.

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@Tendar

Apr 18, 2023

My opinion regarding this clip:

This isn’t Putin and the buildings which have been already geolocated are not the base. It is a decoy, the man and the base.
#Kherson #Ukraine

The Russian army is one of the dumbest armies in the world, but even they wouldn't allow to have taken pictures that way. This very distinct water tower can be easily concealed when recording in a different angle.

They wanted us to geolocate this location.

What's more interesting is the effort Russians have put to mask that room. I think this is a windowless storage room.

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@Tendar

Feb 27, 2023

You might have never heard of cities called "Khaishenvai", "Boli" or "Shuangchenzi" as well as the island of "Quedao", because that are the official names according the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources for Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk and Sakhalin, "newly" introduced.

I cannot say that I'm surprised, aside that it happens a earlier.

When you look into (Chinese) history you will find the chapter of "Unequal Treaties" where parts of China were carved out and integrated into imperial powers, e.g. Britain, Germany, France, Japan and...Russia.

All imperial powers have left China (feudal borders) some time ago - Portugal in Macao was the last - except for one:

Russia

Of course you will not find any discussion regarding this in China, for political reasons, yet, but the sentiment never disappeared.

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@Tendar

Feb 11, 2023

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/963488632563740677

5 years ago I wrote this tweet. It was a few days after Russians and Assadist forces tried to take over the Al Omar oil fields in eastern Syria by attacking US-backed SDF troops. It was a disaster for the Russians. PMC Wagner lost an entire battalion within few hours.
#Syria

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/963488632563740677

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/914110667535392769?s=20

What happened before this fateful event:

SDF was successfully advancing south. By that time a significant part of the oil fields had been under SDF control and more fields further south, which were under Islamic State control, were in reach.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/914110667535392769?s=20

The Assad regime forces as well as Russians understood that it was important for them to thwart that. So Assad and Putin cooked up a plane to attack SDF, directly, and seize the very lucrative Al Omar oil fields.
#DeirEzzor #Syria

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