Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Quick thread - about #GLSDB
as i was watching all day long (and witnessing maintenant sur @LCI) few things that are not true or approximate and or "disturbing" because implying false conclusions.
Here for some explanations & some more thoughts about the subject
here we go...

2/ First of all you certainly all know by now the material we are talking about and it will certainly be officially given to #Ukraine by Friday as explained by US officials.
but here to start with the subject a good (visual & specs) reminder from Chuck

https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1620753060585943041

3/ So today i've seen (i should say as usual...) some maps representations showing the "limits" that the famous #GLSDB could reach and that one below was showed by a lot of "good" account out there.

- So first of all and as explained several times, it is quite disturbing to see

4/ that the limit he used (made by a simple dude by the way)*, are the actual frontier of Ukraine or the direct limits of the occupied territories.
this is typical malpractice.. & implies few wrong things.
(Also quick note, don't put Belarus, Ukraine not at war & its ridiculous)

5/ so the first thing we could do instead to show the "real" possibility is to draw a proper reach & limit within the actual safe UKR territory (you would be at least 15/20km behind actual frontline to be able to avoid direct quick arty fire and move away being safe) :

6/ and if you think : "meh! that does not change much.." actually it does, because when you are mil you have to precisely establish the real exact limits of what you can reach or not and all the roads & paths you can take or have to avoid with your convoy when you need to reach a

7/ a location to establish / deploy your launching plateform to then be sure, not only you'll touch your target but even as important, you'll able to egress later on being perfectly safe with you material being ok.
so what you got to do for real now...

8/ is to take the same map, but to also draw another line of what the "global" best average performance is, at this precise moment..
so not the "perfect" 150km. but maybe a 130km to be sure to hit with 100% (success mission) accuracy!
because let me tell you that weather

9/ conditions (strong wings) and even temperature, can have a role on your "superb" specs determine by the "seller".
and now you see that the locations you "thought" could be "hit" well... maybe surely cannot.
so you got to take this into account!

10/ Also, indirect thoughts... as friend of mine asked today.. as you can see, what are we "touching" there? just "soil" ? what is the pb of showing a map like the guy did. it does not show what could be really interesting and just "tell" we can touch everything in that "zone".

11/ for example the 12th of September in a special thread i showed what could be really interesting if Ukr were able to push the counteroffensive further, because (then) with the "classic" GMLRs

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1569415841426415627

12/ you could have "reached" the Russian lines of transports and rails and main hub. so it would "block" then the main line to distribute materials and ammo to LNR (one of vital Luhansk artery) /DNR etc

but so now.. what we could see, with appropriate map, is that UKR cannot.

13/ in another special thread back then, i also showed the full railway network of Russia and links to occupied territories, and as we can see, to reach and destroy infrastructures there, would be of primary (major) importance!

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1569712146820337665

14/ So.. when you have a GOOD collection of right maps you can start to really "think" in terms of professional, & start to establish what is your limit (like a boxer) now & just don't dream of "pewpewbangbang" everything.. because you can't.. but then what are you exact options

15/ because of course, and that another point, of course Russians are directly doing the same, looking at every map and thinking, ok, then let's just move out this & this, plus some km, away from being "injured".

so side note. maybe just maybe one day we should deliver weapons

16/ not telling Russians, instead of our constant international televised "dramas" (& finally we just end up delivering anyway)

also now, what is interesting if we draw other limits and maps is that we will be able to see that

17/ we will be able to reach territories and cities like Melitopol areas (from both sides) up to approximately #Dzankhoi #Djankoi on the "best case scenario" .. but actually we did before.. it was "harder" to reach them though but UKR forces did, in all Crimea (like even recently

18/ recently with partisans/SOF killing high profile collaborators/Ru mil etc.
or even bases.
so you see that others means & possibilities are "open".
(stay with me because of course at one point i will tell why it's great though & why i was asking for it even more than ATACMS

19/ of course don't get me wrong ATACMS would be great but you need the numbers! & it could generate other problems..
Anyway..
so the other thing now you can also start to think in terms of limits & what you need to reach is interesting & then you can "project" a new map

20/ in which you can "visualize" what would be a great spot from where to launch your #GLSDB so you would be able to destroy infrastructures or amo depot etc, really strangulating Ru, & forcing them out by 250km away ! (long term unmanagable by Ru army)

21/ So you can come up with this map & motivate your troops for a certain goal, for a certain push, to struggle yes, but to achieve something really important & that will help everyone..
not just.. "yeah let's go to take back that abandoned farm..
your "Bastogne" moment ! go;-)

22/ ok, so now, to achieve all that and have real perspectives we also need to know how much of these "precious toys" we will have at our disposal.
because same as the rest.. it creates diff conditions of use & therefore, strategies.

23/ so here i have gathered diff informations & nothing is "secure".. but i hear from "estimated 750 GLSDBs and 12 launchers delivered.." to 2500

& the numbers matters pretty pretty much here !!
you don't plan the same things with the third or the triple

breakingdefense.com/2022/12/send-t…

24/ it also tells you that -whatever the numbers will be this year-
(even if the GBU-39 is like one of the most available bomb in US stock i think.. & the kits are not all fabricated and ready to go..)
#UAarmy will have to plan very carefully their target as this is not 155

25/ sure still plenty enough to annihilate some Russian outpost & immediate logistics hubs, ammo depots, and command posts, but don't expect this to rule the problem of Ru massive incoming troops.

for example against ISIS i remember at one point that coalition dropped over 45k

26/ tons of bombs to kill about 40k men... (& this was official numbers.. like early 2018) & lot of 40k were killed by KURDS or Syrians etc..
anyway, meaning, you got to expect good impact on materials & disturbing logistics & killing morale, etc
but not solving all problems

27/ just want to show you know a small reminder if haven't seen some before :

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1598039061788504064

28/ and to explain to the ones not understanding how it "works" a quick explanation :
so actually it's a "simple" bomb with a special kit in 2 parts, a rocket that launches the bomb & then a kit that help the bomb to reach the target (except 1 detail is that there is no controls)

29/ on the "wing" of the kit, so all the maneuvers are induce at the tail (what would be the equivalent of the rudder & elevator to control pitch yaw & roll) - also it's very effective (like an F-22 pivoting from back "tail") it creates more drag.. & limits global reach to 100km

30/ when it is engaging a moving target.
you should also check here : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_La…

& en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_gui…

31/ The last thing you need to "know" (even if many more) is that contrary to what often said, you can bring a palet & launch GLSDB from a LOT of different plateform, not only form HImars/M270
so more nimble and ready to act from a lot of diff places being more "secured".

32/ last gen point now, is as i said it lacks some "power" it is so accurate & can go around an obstacle so easy that it will be "deadly" for sure !
here i took a basic example to show this summer when Russ were hiding behind buildings in particular orientation if you use shells

33/ or bombs and "miss" yellow" that's it, they survive and escape (unless 10t bomb ;) but with GLSDB they won't be able to hide (not turning that fast/short curve... just for an "example" in green)

imagine on ammo depot! also with new integrated management system on MLRS now.

34/ ok that's it for now. much more to say
but i need to sleep... middle of the night here..
bye!