About 800,000 Texans are heading into tonight w/out power. It doesn't have to be this way. Distributed energy resources (local generation & storage) along w/ weatherization for homes and buildings could make the grid much more resilient. #txlege 1/ douglewin.substack.com/p/local-outage…
I often hear people say that local outages aren't problems with the power grid. It the job of policymakers & regulators to make sure *all* of it works and is reliable—not just part of it.
The grid is divided into transmission (ERCOT) & the distribution sides... (cont.) 2/
...but it's all part of the same grid!
DER solutions increase reliability for the *entire grid*. They can participate in wholesale markets increasing reliability there and provide power when there are distribution outages. #txlege#txenergy 3/
A study by @PNNLab specifically about Texas/#ERCOT showed the potential for "economic benefits of up to $5 billion annually in Texas alone" from DERs. Lower costs for all & onsite generation/storage for reliability. This grid is possible. #energytwitter 4/ pnnl.gov/news-media/how…
The @PUCTX has a good start by approving a pilot for 80MW of DERs last year. The pilot kicked off last month. I talked with @theamyheart about the pilot on this podcast and wrote about it in the article at the same link. #txenergy 5/ renewableenergyworld.com/podcasts/texas…
Note these outages aren't just about severe weather. Texas ranks 44th in the US for frequency of power outages even when "major events" are excluded. Texas is 46th when you include major events and that was *before Uri. See p. 16 here. #txlege 7/ citizensutilityboard.org/wp-content/upl…
@HEB installed DERs in the form of gas CHP systems from @EnchantedRock bc they couldn't rely on the distribution grid (again, part of the grid!) & then contested @CenterPoint's attempt to raise rates. They won. Utilities should be paid for performance. 8/ houstonchronicle.com/business/artic…
We could have a system in which we pay utilities for outcomes like higher reliability and ease for customers to connect solar & storage to the grid.
It's called performance based ratemaking and many states are pursuing it. Texas isn't even studying it. utilitydive.com/news/upheaval-…
#TXLege will have many opportunities to help Texans get #DERs for resiliency. One bill, filed by @ErinForYall would prioritize DERs at critical facilities like hospitals & nursing homes. It passed the House 108-37 but was never heard in the Senate. #txlegecapitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/His…
DERs are a resilience *and* cost savings strategy that help w *both* the distribution & transmission sides of the grid. If you're w/out power, you probably don't care where the problem originated. You just want solutions. DERs can help. #energytwitter 11/ douglewin.substack.com/p/local-outage…
Unfortunately, this tweet from last night turned out to be true. 250,000 accounts (probably ~600,000 Texans) are without power right now. About half of those are in Austin/Travis County. Tree limbs are falling all over the place in my South Austin neighborhood. #txenergy#wxtx 1/
Check on vulnerable friends, family & neighbors. Also, close blinds & curtains, put towels or blankets (makeshift insulation) wherever you feel cold air coming in, and then heat your home a few degrees warmer than normal. That way if you lose power, you'll stay warmer longer. 2/
I wouldn't normally advise that but, with temps in the 20s or 30s and little need for secondary resistance heat, demand is fairly low in ERCOT (62GW now compared to 74GW on Dec. 23) so a little extra warming of homes this morning won't cause problems. #txenergy 3/
The @PUCTX is about to recommend a direction for a new market design called Performance Credit Mechanism (PCM) (aka Pretty much a Capacity Market). It won't fix the problems with the grid but it will cost consumers dearly. PUC has an open meeting on the PCM today. #txlege 1/
The biggest problems with it: it won't solve either of the biggest challenges facing the grid: long cold snaps and summer nights. The "credits" given to generators will be random and impossible to predict. You can't build a power plant on a credit generated at random hours.
Bank of America's energy analysts put out a note this week about the immanent adoption of the PCM: "We see the latest developments as a positive for incumbent IPPs." That's independent power producers like @nrgenergy, Vistra, Constellation & Exelon who will make a killing.
"Over a two-day period in the run-up to Christmas, the state’s gas processing capacity fell 34%, according to Wood Mackenzie, an energy data & analytics firm."
There were no power outages but gas processing dropped 34%!
*At least* 2GW worth of power plants didn't work due to lack of gas.
This is a massive warning that the reforms from the last #txlege session haven't worked & better regulation is necessary to protect the public. 2/
“It doesn’t give me much confidence that we addressed the gas supply issues we faced w/ Winter Storm Uri,” said @joshdr83, a lead author of @EnergyUT's post-mortem on the blackouts.
Failure is a teacher but we seem to not be learning our lessons. Lots of repeat failures from Uri during Elliott:
- Permian gas output⬇️3.4bcf/day (>20%)
- Gas distribution failed many Texans
- Gas (& coal) plants had tons of problems which I detail in the 🧵below. 1/ #txlege
First, the gas system as @MichaelEWebber put it so well, showed its "flimsiness" again. Nationally outages were 16%. In the Permian it was 22%. Not good. To lose that much gas production with no snow & ice is not a good sign to say the least. #txenergy 2/ finance.yahoo.com/news/deadly-wi…
More on power plants later in the thread, but note that >40% of the coal plants in the state were offline at some point. Coal is costlier than wind & solar and it literally kills people, so if it's not there in extremes, why do we have it?! #energytwitter
A few #TXenergy takeaways as we thaw: 1) The grid's still vulnerable. #ERCOT CEO requested an emergency order yesterday, writing ERCOT “may not be able to avoid the need to curtail firm load.” That is, outage risk was real. He cited “natural gas delivery limitations.” #txlege 1/
Heard about this from @shelbywebb, see below. The language from ERCOT CEO Vegas was clear: "the loss of power to homes and local businesses in the areas that may be affected by curtailments presents a far greater risk to public health and safety." houstonchronicle.com/business/energ…
2) Communications are still terrible. Not one state official held a press conference or did a media availability to inform the public of this letter or why it was needed. This from @adelauchida was a common experience among journalists yesterday. #txlege
Grid update: Demand forecast is much lower than last night but ERCOT missed its forecast by 23% last night so that's cold comfort. A miss that bad tonight & conditions would be tight. Reports of gas supply ⬇️ 8bcf overall, ~3bcf in the Permian. Gas/coal outages ~9.5GW. #txlege 1/
Add it all up & still low chance of outages tonight, though higher than last night, esp. given the massive demand miss. #ERCOT and @PUCTX simply have to get better at forecasting demand and improving #energyefficiency. More on that here: 2/ douglewin.substack.com/p/2022-cold-sn…
I said coming into this the two biggest wild card were power demand & gas supply. The drops in gas output weren't enough to cause problems yet. I don't think this level of reduction would cause outages. Keepin an eye on it though. #energytwitter#natgas 3/