Thread by @TheStudyofWar

Eastern Kharkiv/Western #Luhansk:

Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the #Svatove area on February 2 while Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the #Kreminna area. isw.pub/UkrWar020223

2/ #Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 2 that Russian forces have increased the rate of shelling in the #Svatove and #Kremmina directions in preparation for an offensive effort in February...

3/ ...supporting @TheStudyofWar's previous assessment that a Russian offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).

4/ A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that Ukrainian forces pulled troops to the Kupyansk area due to increased Russian forays on the Hrianykivka-Petropavlivka-Synkivka line (about 50km northwest of Svatove).

5/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 2 that Russian forces are preparing to destroy road infrastructure and mine bridges, dams, and crossings near Tavilzhanka (50km north of #Svatove on the P79 Kupyansk-Lyman Druhyi highway) in #Kharkiv Oblast.

6/ These attacks may suggest that Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian logistics necessary for future Ukrainian advances or could be meant to isolate the Ukrainian-held territory between #Kupyansk and the front line to facilitate Russian offensive operations in this sector.

7/ Russian forces also intensified ground attacks in the #Kreminna area on February 2. isw.pub/UkrWar020223

8/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Ploshchanka (16km NW of Kreminna), Nevske (18km NW of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km SW of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km SW of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast.

9/ This is notably a higher number of reported repelled attacks than is typical in the #Kreminna area. isw.pub/UkrWar020223