ISW Profile picture
Feb 3 9 tweets 5 min read
Eastern Kharkiv/Western #Luhansk:

Russian and Ukrainian sources suggested that Russian forces may be preparing offensive actions in the #Svatove area on February 2 while Russian forces intensified ground attacks in the #Kreminna area. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
2/ #Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai stated on February 2 that Russian forces have increased the rate of shelling in the #Svatove and #Kremmina directions in preparation for an offensive effort in February...
3/ ...supporting @TheStudyofWar's previous assessment that a Russian offensive effort in Luhansk Oblast is the most likely course of action (MLCOA).
4/ A Russian milblogger claimed on February 2 that Ukrainian forces pulled troops to the Kupyansk area due to increased Russian forays on the Hrianykivka-Petropavlivka-Synkivka line (about 50km northwest of Svatove).
5/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 2 that Russian forces are preparing to destroy road infrastructure and mine bridges, dams, and crossings near Tavilzhanka (50km north of #Svatove on the P79 Kupyansk-Lyman Druhyi highway) in #Kharkiv Oblast.
6/ These attacks may suggest that Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian logistics necessary for future Ukrainian advances or could be meant to isolate the Ukrainian-held territory between #Kupyansk and the front line to facilitate Russian offensive operations in this sector.
7/ Russian forces also intensified ground attacks in the #Kreminna area on February 2. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
8/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Ploshchanka (16km NW of Kreminna), Nevske (18km NW of Kreminna), Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna), Dibrova (5km SW of Kreminna), and Kuzmyne (3km SW of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast.
9/ This is notably a higher number of reported repelled attacks than is typical in the #Kreminna area. isw.pub/UkrWar020223

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Feb 3
Eastern #Ukraine: #Donetsk Oblast🧵

Geolocated footage confirms that Russian forces have made incremental advances northeast of #Bakhmut near Rozdolivka (15km NE of Bakhmut) and on the northern outskirts of Bakhmut itself. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
2/ #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Group captured Sacco and Vanzetti and Mykolaivka, two settlements about 15km north of #Bakhmut, on February 1 and 2, respectively. isw.pub/UkrWar020223
3/ It is still unclear whether Russian operations in the Rozdolivka-Mykolaivka area northeast of #Bakhmut are intended to support the encirclement of Bakhmut by pushing southwest along the T1302 Bakhmut-Siversk highway...
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts:

The #Wagner Group’s prison recruitment efforts may have slowed in previous months. 1/
isw.pub/UkrWar020123
The #Wagner Group’s reputation for committing convict recruits to highly attritional human wave attacks in eastern #Ukraine has likely engendered resistance among #Russian prisoners to Wagner Group recruitment efforts. 2/
The likely substandard physical condition of the majority of #Russia’s prison population for military service is likely also constraining the #Wagner Group’s prison recruitment effort. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 2
#Donetsk Oblast:
Geolocated combat footage shows that Russian forces have made slight advances NE of #Bakhmut near Krasna Hora and on the NE and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, as well as south of Bakhmut near Opytne and on Bakhmut’s southern outskirts. isw.pub/UkrWar020123
2/ #Wagner and the GRU may be committing more elite special operations and reconnaissance elements to augment human wave attacks in the #Bakhmut area.
3/ Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks on the western outskirts of #Donetsk City or in western Donetsk Oblast on February 1.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 1
Russian officials are again overestimating Russian military capabilities to advance in #Donetsk Oblast and in the theater in a short period of time. isw.pub/UkrWar013123
2/ Russian conventional forces may be replacing expended #Wagner PMC forces by relocating them from #Bakhmut to the frontlines in southern #Ukraine.
3/ The Russian MoD may be attempting to fully supplant #Wagner forces near #Bakhmut to undermine the Wagner Group’s influence in #Ukraine...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
Russian forces continued offensive operations around #Bakhmut and across the #Donetsk Oblast front line on January 31.

Russian forces are unlikely to benefit significantly elsewhere in eastern #Ukraine from their localized offensive around #Vuhledar. isw.pub/UkrWar013123
2/ A Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 105th Rifle Regiment-affiliated source claimed that Russian forces captured Sacco and Vanzetti (17km north of Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed any visual evidence that verifies this claim.
3/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that "volunteers of assault detachments" with support from conventional Russian units captured Blahodatne (11km north of Bakhmut), following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s January 28 claims that Wagner Group fighters captured the settlement.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 1
The introduction of #Russian conventional forces to the #Bakhmut frontline has offset the culmination of the #Wagner Group’s offensive and retained the initiative for Russian operations around the city.

isw.pub/UkrWar013123
2/ The ISW December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against #Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate.
3/ The #Wagner Group offensive culminated, as ISW assessed on January 28, but the Russian command has committed sufficient conventional Russian forces to the effort to reinvigorate it, thus forestalling the overall culmination of the offensive on #Bakhmut, which continues.
Read 6 tweets

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