Thread by @ZimermanErik

We now get to discuss the #Kreminna front finally. In light red (DPA map)we see very roughly future likely #Russian lines of advance around #Bakhmut & #Siversk. Hope to discuss those again in detail but for now let us assume these involve an operational encirclement of Bakhmut

(followed by a total one) and an advance on Siversk by hitting the strong eastern UA line from the rear, and advancing northwards along the high ground. This would push the front to the final Donbass line of defense, the formidable Kostyanivka - Slovansk line. The menacing

creature to the Russian effort is the often ignored Kreminna front, especially its thick forest belt. It is here where UA forces can leverage their preference for forest cover and assault the less densely defended northern/Kharkhov front, where they made such large gains a few

months back. If they can attack through the forest belt towards Kreminna and the roads & rails that emanate from it they can cause quite the logistical challenge for the RU forces and potentially stop halt the advance in the south. Firstly, the most important reason why UA can &

ought to attack towards here is just because it is a place that it can. It has the highest chances of success. Time after time, we have seen the RU reluctance to enter forests, the difficulty it has had in clearing UA forces from it, and the ability of UA forces to infiltrate

through it. The forest simply negates some of the advantages RU forces currently enjoy. While we have seen this in even tiny patches of trees, this forest belt (which is largely a forestry plantation) is as large as it gets in Ukraine. One of similar size was the Izium forest

which was the site of complex small unit battles and RU failed to secure it. In fact I discussed this area frequently in those days and suggested that RU had to secure that flank (& could do so by advancing southwards from Balakliya to cut off its western edge without having to

fight through it). Russia's failure to take care of this flank and the forest belt on this front was one of the reasons of the collapse of the front which led to a large withdrawal all along the Kharkhov oblast and into Lugansk.

I noted also that UA would be wise to exploit this belt

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542007520197222400

and that it was key for RU to secure it.

(also see

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1542735581989437443

and

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1550305422896205825

).
The Kreminna front is a similar opportunity for Ukraine. The difference is that Russia is no

longer so starved for manpower as it was pre-mobilization and thus the lines are not as thin. Secondly of course RU has also learned some of the lessons from the previous mistakes. We can see from recent videos that RU infantry is holding positions within the forest, which then

can call armored support including IFVs as soon as they detect enemy incursions, presence or activity. The infantry is in well protected positions near road access for the support & need only hold their own until they arrive. In the second video we see a similar situation with

the frightening work of the new Terminator AFV. Now besides the fact that UA has a better chance of striking here, the strategic importance of Krimenna should not be overlooked. The city is a connecting point of highways and railways which link the recently secured areas of

Lysychansk & Severodonetsk (& onwards towards Lugansk & Donetsk) with the rest of the norther front as well as the critical logistics hub of Pidhorivka. Since the highways and railways do not connect to Russia proper northwards from Krimenna due to UA advances at Kupyansk &

around the critical battle of Kuzemivka the connection to Svatove (by rail) & Pidhorivka is critical for the long northern front.

Losing the southern foot of this system at Krimenna which greatly complicate supply along the line, none of which could be railway, and we (& RU) sure love our rail lines.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1549196240327409664

This is why for RU the forest battles along the Kreminna forests are critical to

sustain not only the northern front, but the climactic acts at Bakhmut and Siversk in the south as well.

In a follow up post shortly I hope, we will discuss some key steps needed for the RU securing of the forest belt & decrease in UA's ability to support incursions through it.

The follow up:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1621370978897887233