#Adani

#Active vs #Passive

NIFTY50 has both Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises in it.

Adani Enterprises is in essence a holding company that draws its value from the value of its subsidiaries, with no substantive business.

1/
While an Index is expected to be representative of the economy it represents, does it make sense to have holding companies in Indices.

Should there not be a rule for reducing the impact of double counting such instances.

2/n
As passive investments is becoming the preferred choice of vehicle for Pension funds wrt their equity allocations, should the index providers not consider eliminating double counting?

3/n
We have other twins too -

HDFC vs HDFC Bank
Bajaj Finserv vs Bajaj Finance
SBI vs SBI Life

4/n
When an investor chooses, passive he is inherently shifting the power from a manager to the index provider and with power, he transfers responsibility too!

May be this episode gives a reason to review rules of Inclusion into Index for HoldCos

5/n
On a lighter vein, if market cap and free float are the only criteria, SBI Nifty ETF may find a weight in NIFTY!

Will be like mirror on opposite walls in saloon!

6/n - end

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More from @vijayvenkatram

Feb 4
#adani #HindenburgReport with the USD bonds falling by the heap, looks like the short seller has hurt the US investors notionally more than anything else.

Looks like bonds fell between 7% to 15% YTD, with one unsecured bond falling 30% or so!

1/
The head line "bonds trade at 60c" while right, it misses the data that they were at 68-70c at the beginning of the year.

Most of the damage had already been caused by the US rates moving up in 2021-22!

2/
With GS and other banks suggesting value in the Bonds, looks the distressed debt and hedge funds will likely be in the bond roster which probably largely had the EM bond funds (US mutual funds) till a few days ago!

Start appearing in some distressed debt newsletters!

3/ end
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
#adani #HindenburgReport

The operative part of the report

“short positions in Adani Group Companies through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivatives, along with other non-Indian-traded reference securities”

(1/n)
What does this mean

(a) They may be Short Bonds issued by Adani in US
(b) Short non-Indian-traded derivatives
(c) short other non-Indian-traded "reference securities"

(2/n)
Shorting Bonds:

Adani Bonds are likely to be part of an universe called High Yield - EM bonds.

They is practically no secondary market of any noticeable size or liquidity. If you want to buy or sell, you reach out a bond broker, who will find a seller or buyer.

(3/n)
Read 19 tweets
Jan 28
#ShortSelling is not natural investing and is beset with #risks that are also not usual. One needs to go beyond the usual fundamentals that we look in #investing.

So a short seller is usually very careful and has to time it right for it to be successful!

#adani

(1/n)
You start with looking for vulnerable businesses.

Vulnerability can come from - Excessive valuations, leverage, systemic liquidity, specific liquidity, regulatory change, political regime change, governance issues, loan against shares or margin and the list is long.

(2/n)
While many of the factors are known, some are very time dependent

Considering that most factors that @hindenburgres cited in its long report is known, one factor that matters is “liquidity”.

So choosing the timing of their reveal is critical and is not a coincidence.

(3/n)
Read 11 tweets
Sep 4, 2022
@CFASocietyIndia had a very interesting session at Chennai on Sep 2, 2022 on "Art of Investing" by @safalniveshak with @arun_kumar_r interacting with him with a great set of questions.

(1/n)
He started sharing a slide on how a portfolio of stocks (mostly consumer) picked by his teenage daughter o/p broader markets.

For a moment, I thought I should do a wapsi of my CFA charter and the other degrees!

(2/n)
Even as I was contemplating, he mentioned about Beginners luck and introduced Dunning-Kruger effect that comforted me a bit

(3/n)
Read 15 tweets
Nov 8, 2021
#PreIPO

The final round before an IPO is in essence signalling with a hope to get higher IPO valuations!

If the financing is marginal, it makes sense to ignore that!

(1/n)
If you are a small investor, investing in pre-IPO shares is not a great idea - Information asymmetry is almost highest at this point!

(2/n)
Between 2009 - 2011, starting with a Newspaper company and till Coal India participated in 11 IPOs. Was an anchor investor in 2 of them!

And in that period 12 IPOs had Day 1 pop (and still up after 30 days). The only one that I missed was 🍕

(3/n)
Read 12 tweets
Jul 19, 2020
#Markets vs #Economy

This is an Investor letter written by John Templeton in 1954 that was shared in 1958 again!
This time is not different!
#earnings and #business trends are only one of the factors
Read 9 tweets

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