In the week of Oct 18, 2022 this stock witnessed a huge red candle in the entire chart history of the stock along with the highest volume bar, indicating a clear change of trend.
Pls note: This chart is prior to the stock split in the ratio of 1:5.
9/ When prices rise in almost vertical/90 degree fashion, they form a parabolic curve, we should be cautious.
Because of the purchasing frenzy that drives parabolic moves, we never know when the final top will arrive.
However, we know that vertical moves cannot be sustained, and we can expect the parabolic to collapse, with prices falling as swiftly as they advanced.
10/ The result of the extreme Angle of Ascent is a early warning signal or a red flag.
The stock is at risk of profit taking that may turn into a slide downward.
11/ Folks who are looking to buy such stocks (from investing perspective), remember that there will be some bounces however the stock will hit resistances at the higher levels.
Usually stocks may witness some sideways dull action before the changing its trend.
The stock would usually try to form a base, before giving a trend.
So no point in tying up capital when there is no momentum.
12/ Characteristics of a parabolic move:
1. Very fast upmove in a short span of time. 2. Only higher high candles in weekly or monthly TF. 3. Absence of any profit booking 4. Witnessing 3x to 10x returns in a span of 6 months to an year.
5. Post 3x or 6x usually reports from Investment Banking firms about stock doubling or tripling from that level. 6. Hype surrounding the company on social media 7. Merger deal announcement (HDFC twins check the parabolic move on a shorter TF)
8. Pleding of promoters shareholding rises in this period
You may find any or combination of the few characteristics that are listed out.
No matter how good the fundamentals look, always do check the charts and if you find any of the above characteristics especially 1 to 4 then just ignore or book out.
Because price is and shall always remian a lead indicator.
13/ Conclusion:
Parabolic up moves are exciting to ride, but there is the almost CERTAIN danger that the rocket will run out of fuel, resulting in a rapid collapse of prices.
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This strategy involves finding stocks that are trading near their high in the past 4 months with rising volumes and closing strong, indicating a possible breakout.
Stocks that have seen a sudden spurt in their volume by over 2x times the average volume over the past 10 trading sessions and have gained or lost more than 5% today.
1/ Failed or false breakouts are more rewarding than trading breakouts.
The reaction to this failed breakout is usually so intense and dramatic because it has trapped investors in the wrong direction.
2/ What is a failed breakout?
A failed breakout is when the price of a security moves beyond a support or resistance level (breakout) but then reverses its course moving back below resistance or above support.