Thread by @ChakhoyanAndrew

🔴 Why did #russia launch a full-scale invasion last year?
🔵 Whether you're pro-russian, anti-russian, or Elon Musk [who just can't decide], Feb 24th doesn't make any sense
🔵 So, here is a short thread 🧵to explore the 3 most compelling explanations I've heard
1/5

1️⃣ Kool-Aid drinking party in the bunker
As @TarasKuzio explained in his piece for @ACEurasia
"It would appear that Putin simply fell victim to his own propaganda."
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
2/5

2️⃣ regime preservation: a plan to conduct a quick & victorious war [repeating "Crimea success"] & thus accrue sufficient legitimacy for the putin-kleptocracy to run/pillage russia for decades to come

As @RG_Horvath argued here
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete… via @LowyInstitute

3/5

3️⃣ absence of a russian nation, a russian idea, a russian future outside of imperial conquest #RussianColonialism drives it to invade neighbors and subjugate colonies [be it within the russian empire, USSR, or the Ruscist Federation]. Russia has no meaning otherwise.

4/5

The last explanation is the hardest to grasp, but I find it most compelling.
"Putin doesn’t offer his people a future at all. He governs without a future." @TimothyDSnyder told @seanilling in an interview.
A crucial point ⬇️ to understand Feb 24th
vox.com/2022/6/21/2316…

I used “pro-russia” / “anti-russian” as a shorthand… in reality 1st term, in present discourse, stands for:
🔴 the russist-kleptocracy propaganda machine
🔴 russian bots/trolls whose job is to be “pro-ruscist” — literally the basis of their monthly paychecks
🔴 kremlin assets

Anti-russian is another misnomer. There’re people indifferent to russia, who believe in freedom, democracy, dignity… that, automatically, qualifies them as anti-russian for better or worse

The 3rd group is “neutral” & we all know that there’s a special place in ___ for them