The @AtlanticCouncil gathered a number #Romanian speakers @GuvernulRo, @MAERomania to discuss the country's regional importance.
A legitimate topic, but let's unpack some of the claims made by the speakers /1
‘Romania is working to integrate regional markets and move away from Russian gas.’ If that is the case, can the speakers guarantee that the latest import contract signed by @RomgazRomania with Azerbaijan excludes Russian-origin gas?/2
Romania is working to import electricity from Azerbaijan, says Ambassador Tatiana Iosiper @tiosiper. Just out of curiosity, has Her Excellency worked out the costs of such an interconnection, plus the added war-related risks in the Black Sea? /3
Mr G. Niculescu of @EnergyofRomania said RO was working to integrate its market with Ukraine’s. Can he tells us why there are no exports of electricity to UA right now when needed? Something to do with a 98% tax on electricity/gas trading? /3
Also Mr Niculescu told the audience that 3.3mcm/day of gas was being shipped to Ukraine from Romania. Really, Mr Niculescu? Is this gas from the Romanian VTP or transit gas from Bulgaria? /4
Ms Alexandra Bocse, advisor to @KlausIohannis said RO was encouraging foreign investors.
Why, then, are investors turning away from Romania, complaining of market-unfriendly rules and lack of communication from institutions such as #ANRE, #Ministryofenergy#Opcom? /5
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A thread on the #Romanian electricity/gas markets, which are becoming an increasing concern for the region : /1
The Romanian gov adopted a 98% tax on electricity/gas trading and a 100% on electricity exports which are due on 25 October. If not scrapped, they would wipe out wholesale trading and endanger security of supply, as suggested by GEN-I in this interview /2
As a result of the tax new regime announced in September, trading on the BRM and OPCOM exchanges has stopped.
EFET has warned of the tax's catastrophic consequences, not just for Romania but for the region as there may not be any regional trading, right now ahead of winter /3
Energy companies are braced for the collapse of the #Romanian electricity and gas markets and a supply blackout after the government introduced a series of punishing taxes./1
As of 1 September, electricity and gas traders will have to pay a 98% tax on net revenues. The tax is in place for a year and will have to be paid both by resident and non-resident companies./2
For producers, the government has set a reference price of RON450.00/MWh (€93.00/MWh). If producers have a profit above that level, it will be taxed 100%./3
I had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Timm Kehler, chairman of Germany's Zukunft Gas, the industry's lobby group.
A few takeaways from this very important discussion:
1. #Germany may be days away from reaching a gas price level where trading may not be sustainable anymore, prompting the government to raise the alert level to emergency, which, in turn, would lead to gas rationing.
2. Gas rationing may happen in the next six-eight weeks but the government and regulator are yet to publish a merit order that will clearly identify who will be the first in line to get the curtailment order.
I never cease to wonder how some European think-tankers are always more inclined to write Turkey off as an energy partner than to make an effort to find joint interests, particularly now when ever single opportunity that shifts markets away from Russian gas is important/1
The author insists that although Turkey is in close vicinity to large fossil fuel producers – Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Kurdish Region of Iraq, East Med – there is no prospect for large supplies to reach European markets via Turkey/3
#Bulgaria and #Poland confirmed the suspension of #Russian gas supplies from 27.04.2022 after the countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles.
Here is the immediate and slightly longer-term supply outlook for both as well as the region. /1
Poland:
Russian Yamal contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
The 10bcm/year Baltic Pipeline supplying NO gas to PL to be commissioned 1 Oct 2022.
Swinoujscie terminal cap to rise from 5bcm/y (2022) ->8.3bcm in 2024.
2 LNG cargoes to arrive 28/30.04 /2
Bulgaria:
Russian LTC contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
Interconnector GR-BG (IGB) to be commissioned second half of 2022.
Immediate likely supplies from AGSC 1bcm/year deal, Chiren UGS, Greece LNG and RO-BG link.
Before wrapping up for the weekend, a small tribute to Patrick Leigh Fermor, perhaps the greatest travel writer of all times, who would have had his birthday today. (1)
All his books are superb, his knowledge of history and elegant use of the English language are simply breathtaking but I never cease to be bewitched by his description of Ada Kaleh, a a fairy tale-like island in the middle of the Danube (2).
Ada Kaleh had been inhabited by the descendants of Sultan Bayazid I’s soldiers, lingering on as a forgotten corner of the Ottoman world until 1970s when it was submerged by Romania’s communist regime to build a large hydro dam. Another magic place destroyed by communism. (3)