Fahd Sheikh Profile picture
Feb 6 11 tweets 6 min read
The #IMF mission has apparently been particularly tough during ongoing negotiations to unlock an additional $1 billion in funding for #Pakistan.

They’ve essentially told #GOP that it has never approached the turnaround of Pakistan’s economy seriously.

brecorder.com/news/40224672
They’ve also cast doubt on the sincerity of #GOP’s intentions going forward, which is why they have decided to literally force some of the fiscal (read: price hikes) and monetary adjustments (read: unpegging of the disastrous #DarPeg) on this hapless #PDM coalition government.
A government whose leader very publicly expressed his frustration the other day when he said that the “#IMF is giving Pakistan a tough time”.

Well it’s about time someone did. The jokers in Islamabad have been recklessly profligate in wasting precious taxpayer resources.
The #IMF mission was probably also quite shocked at the silent 🤫 removal of the military & judicial bureaucracy from the list of high-ranking government officials whose assets are to be declared (read: declassified 😂) as a prerequisite for unlocking the next IMF tranche.
In response to the #IMF’s expression of shock and surprise at the removal of the asset-declaration requirement of ALL high-ranking public officials, FM #DollarDar probably expressed his helplessness 🤷🏻‍♂️ in response, since we all know his boss has been nicknamed “Cherry Blossom”.
So, bottom-line: #IMF means business & will arm-twist its way into extracting fiscal adjustments that it feels are necessary for Pakistan to course-correct its slide towards sovereign default (which policymakers sitting in ISB, RWP, LHE, & KHI still don’t seem or care to fathom).
Once the $1 billion #IMF tranche is in place — post-fiscal & monetary adjustments (fuel price hikes, energy tariff hikes, tax hikes across the board, removal of artificial currency peg, interest rate hikes) — one can expect additional multilateral & bilateral funding to unlock.
One does wonder what our friends in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Doha, and Beijing think of our leadership who fly in 🛩️ every now and then (sometimes twice a month) to plead for more money to prop up this elite-captured, rent-seeking economy. Self-created for their own personal benefit.
There is a name for such people: “Shahi Faqeers”.

A Shahi Faqeer is someone who leads a country or is a member of its top leadership tier, is known to have multi-million / multi-billion dollar assets parked safely abroad, but shamelessly shows up to ask others for 💵 funds.
Our collective leadership across-the-board has literally become the laughing stock of the world today. They seem to have no shame. They wish to continue living on geopolitical rents (“geoeconomics”) perpetually whilst enriching themselves at the expense of 220 million Pakistanis.
Lenders have had enough: “Roll back subsidies, fix circular debt (read: theft), raise taxes & tariffs, and declare assets of those responsible for taking day-to-day decisions in #Pakistan.” And rightly so!

Unfortunately, short-term costs shall be borne by 220 million Pakistanis.

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More from @FahdSheikh3

Dec 27, 2022
#Darnomics & the #DarPeg 🚨

A thread 🧵 —

There are two very clear scenarios in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 at the moment:
Scenario 1 —

Finance Minister @MIshaqDar50 continues “managing” the country’s exchange rate. Once he’s gone (3-6 months), and a caretaker government comes in, PKR will shoot up (possibly overshoot) to previously unseen levels beyond 275 vs. USD.
Scenario 2 —

Mr. Dar decides to let PKR find its true value based on market fundamentals driven by #Pakistan’s true (glaring 👀) macroeconomic realities. In this scenario, I foresee PKR depreciating to between 250-260 & stabilising within this range for the next 6 months.
Read 13 tweets
Dec 16, 2022
Agha Hasan Abedi — legendary banker & founding President of #BCCI (Bank of Credit & Commerce International) — the world’s 7th largest privately owned bank.

A bank run by Pakistanis 🇵🇰 & financed by the Ruling Family of Abu Dhabi 🇦🇪 & prominent family offices of Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦.
Founded in 1972, during a meeting of senior bankers in Beirut, #Lebanon 🇱🇧, #BCCI went on to open up branches & launch full-fledged commercial banking operations in 73 countries around the world by 1989. This included opening the first branch of a foreign-owned bank in #China 🇨🇳.
In the mid-1980’s, Agha Hasan Abedi (or Agha Sahib as he was called fondly by colleagues), negotiated the acquisition of a very unique banking operation in the #UnitedStates 🇺🇸. The bank acquired had licenses to operate in 15-16 states in the US. An unprecedented transaction.
Read 61 tweets
Sep 6, 2022
* #PAKISTAN 🇵🇰 DEBT ACCUMULATION — CAUTION ⚠️ *

During @PTIofficial’s last year in power (Jul-2021 to Mar-2022), Pakistan’s total debt (domestic + external) increased by PKR 4.4 trillion (or US$25.1 billion @ an average USD:PKR parity of 175).

@ImranKhanPTI @shaukat_tarin Image
Note: even though most of #Pakistan’s debt is not USD-denominated, but by providing the USD-equivalent no., I’ve just tried to provide an idea of the country’s sheer scale of debt accumulation.

@PTIofficial added debt at a rate of PKR 550 billion (or US$3.1 billion) per month. Image
Now let’s have a look at what happened post-VONC:

During the first 4 months of @pmln_org & @MediaCellPPP’s govt. aka PDM (Apr-2022 to Jul-2022), #Pakistan’s total debt has increased by PKR 7.4 trillion (or US$36.1 billion @ ave. USD:PKR parity of 205).

@CMShehbaz @MiftahIsmail Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
Is there no one in this government who can forecast trade deficit & CAD correctly even for the next 3 months?

I mean how can forecasting be so out that it leads to these kind of alarming surprises & doesn’t help MoF & SBP take pre-emptive measures before time? @MuzzammilAslam3
Spending $ billions a year on imported CBU’s & CKD’s for fossil fuel cars for a country that is heavily dependent on imported energy is a highly unintelligent strategy.

Those who were pushing for reducing duties on imported vehicles must be asked as to what they were thinking.
Secondly, for a net energy importer that should look to reduce its dependence on oil, an auto policy propagating the import of legacy vehicles instead of electric vehicles is completely flawed. The auto & auto parts lobby had sold the idea of auto sector exports to @PTIofficial.
Read 27 tweets
Nov 28, 2021
*PAKISTAN SOVEREIGN DEBT* —
A THREAD 🧵:

This is an eye-opening depiction of how successive govt’s have mismanaged debt in #Pakistan.

85% of 🇵🇰’s tax revenues are now used to service debt.

Under the circumstances, #GOP & @PTIofficial have a few options that they can employ:
1) Ramp up tax revenue growth —

@NadraPak has a list of 3 million top spenders of #Pakistan. Now is the time to act & hold tax evaders accountable. @FBRSpokesperson, @shaukat_tarin, and NADRA, in coordination, need to start knocking on some doors.

tribune.com.pk/story/2308066/…
2) Stop the bleeding from Public Sector Enterprises (PSE’s) —

Prioritise the privatisation of entities that are bleeding the most. A presentation to this effect & why privatisation has become so critical for Pakistan’s economic security should be given by @ImranKhanPTI himself.
Read 16 tweets
Oct 6, 2021
#Pakistan Banking Sector M&A —
A Thread 🧵

Interesting things happening in 🇵🇰’s banking sector related to #GCC-based sponsors.

Samba Bank is leaving 🇵🇰 🔜 after parent entity’s merger with NCB in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, & MergeCo Saudi National Bank’s decision to divest some assets.
Silk Bank is on perpetual sale after its abysmal performance in #Pakistan 🇵🇰 despite benefitting from one of the highest equity injections till-date. It is to be sold 🔜 and IFC / Nomura / Bank Muscat / Gourmet Group along with others will take a massive hit on their investment.
In banking, the best combination is always *a strong sponsor with a strong management team*. If you can get that right, there’s no better business in #Pakistan.

However, if your institution does not benefit from either of the two, then the bank is highly likely to underperform.
Read 10 tweets

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