Thread by @TimothyAWise

1/10 Time to settle down, class. Today's topic is economic disinformation, the use of economic methods to present false claims as data-driven "facts." Today's case: @stuartsmyth66's claim of huge economic losses from #Mexico's restrictions on #GMO corn imports.

The Feb 2022 paper models economic costs to #Mexican producers and processors. In economic modeling, the results are often driven by the modelers' assumptions, not the model or data.
Assumption #1: The ban will shut off yellow corn imports in 2024. Nope. farmprogress.com/marketing/mexi…

So, not until 2025, and then maybe phased in. For @stuartsmyth66 an immediate, total ban adds to damage estimates. So too Assumption #2: #Mexico will be cut off from US feed corn with no alternative sources. But no: non-gmoreport.com/articles/mexic…

Assumption #3: No US farmers will grow non-#GMO corn for US's largest international corn buyer. But many US farmers say they are ready and willing to do just that. non-gmoreport.com/articles/mexic…

Assumption #4: #Mexico will have to grow all that yellow corn in short order, and it won't grow any of it. No surprise their model predicts an 81% increase in corn prices. But Mexico says it hope to grow 30-40% more corn by 2024. reut.rs/3JhAWSA

Assumption #5: Mexico yields will decline 31% because of "agroecological farming." This is a doozy. 31% comes from US estimate of yield difference with organic, not non-GMO corn. Yields are actually comparable. gmoreport.com/articles/non-g…

Assumption #6: Related ban on #glyphosate will result in all weeding done by hand, dramatically increasing labor costs. Actually, #Mexico is finding safe alternatives to the toxic herbicide.

Assumption #7: Mexico has no right under #USMCA to restrict imports. Mexico cites sound science on risks & chapter says: “This Section does not require a Party to mandate an authorization for a product of agricultural biotechnology to be on the market.” iatp.org/blog/202212/no…

9/10 Those are a lot of economic growth hormones. No surprise they produce loss estimates of $15-$22b over 5 years. Don't believe it, nor the @CropLifeIntl model that claimed huge costs based on false assumption. iatp.org/distorting-mar…

10/10 Finally, speaking of @CropLifeAmerica & industry-funded research, @stuartsmyth66's research chair is also funded by biotech interests opposed to the GM corn ban. As usual: "No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)." Class dismissed, and Smyth too.