Thread by @pythaginboots

Bayern v PSG - Preview [Thread]

➡️ No Mbappe robs PSG of 'vertical' penetration
➡️ Full Back Battle - Stalemate?🤤
➡️ Bayern lack CF to trouble Ramos/Marquinhos?
➡️ Can Kimi/Goretzka protect half spaces where Messi and Neymar operate?

CC: @Effmatch @KlipDraw

#PSG #Bayern #UCL

It is tough to call the lineups in this first leg, with both managers renowned for their constant tinkering in shape and selection... not to mention injuries to players like Mbappe and Muller, both of whom may or may not start on Tuesday.

Without Mbappe, PSG have a penetration issue. Whilst Bayern's backline is pretty quick and physically powerful, it isn't blessed with high tier defensive IQ and the MNM trio as a collective looked well set to give this Bayern defensive unit issue especially on the counter...

Bayern are a very front foot side and their midfielders can at times be caught further forward, there is no natural CDM presence protecting that defence at all times, screening for threats and Mbappe in a big game with space to run into would have been set for catching fire...

PSG could use Ektike but he's relatively inexperienced at UCL level, he doesn't have the express pace of Mbappe and this begs the question... if you are having to carry the 'legs' of Messi and Neymar, do you want an extra mid to carry their defensive work, or give them an outlet

Who at least attempts to press, stretch the line and occupy the centre backs even if he isn't Kyliann Mbappe. It is a tough conundrum to solve, but PSG need to focus on getting to the second leg still in the encounter rather than trying to win in a dominant manner without Mbappe.

On to full backs... the arrival of Cancelo really unlocks this Bayern side tactically. Whilst he was an excellent left back, towards the end of his time, City's refusal to field a balanced flank between invert/outside penetration began to affect the effectiveness of Cancelo.

With Davies down the left, this will be no such issue. He will provide natural width down the right and I do expect to see a resurgence in his game. He makes the 3-4-1-2 now seem a viable strategy and I believe it will bring the best out of Pavard too.

What will be interesting to see is if he is asked to invert a lot into midfield - I sincerely hope not because if Sane is on the right, he will cut in and he needs Cancelo to hold the width and draw markers. One of the issues with previous crazy Nagelsmann 3421 tactics in UCL...

Was having likes of Sane and Coman as wing backs but inverted. You should never have inverted wing backs in a back 5 system, it just creates a very narrow side which struggles to penetrate lateral width and no chance for crosses to be put in on the run.

That is their shape vs Villarreal in 21/22, at no stage did that shape change - against a side which was looking to absorb pressure and counter. Terrible tactical management and one hopes Nagelsmann does not misuse Cancelo tomorrow.

As for PSG, if Mbappe is missing, they will need their full backs to bomb forward to give this side some zip. But with the likes of Musiala/Sane/Davies, can they afford to be too aggressive? all signs point to their defending taking precedence.

An option Bayern have utilised this season at CF is Choupo. Quite frankly not really elite but he does a solid enough job, but if they do dominate possession - he has a box presence and can grab the odd goal even against decent sides. But if there is no Muller and just Choupo...

Bayern are in danger of making plenty of pretty patterns but lacking penetration - a re run of the German national team in the World Cup. Ideally both need to be on the pitch at the same time, but I am not sure against a side like PSG - you can afford both from the outset...

Finally Messi and Neymar are both rumoured to be leaving PSG this summer so this is their final hurrah together. Messi is looking sharp post World Cup, but Goretzka has also looked solid. He should be able to track back and help but will Nagelsmann force him to focus on attack?

Should be easier to get back and protect these spaces if Mbappe is out as speed of negative transition is slower, but do not underestimate PSG team fast passing and runners from midfield/full back providing a surprise element i.e. guys like Emery off bench.

In low block, if Bayern are well set - I think Bayern have enough experience there to marshall Messi/Neymar and there won't be a huge aerial presence if the full backs get wide and put crosses in.

Prediction...

If Mbappe is out/not sharp, I think if Bayern go with a lineup where there is natural width - they should have enough to edge the first leg.

If Nagelsmann out thinks himself again, with strange tactical ploys - it is anyones game.

PSG ideally want to see out the game, suffocate possession and wait for magical moments from Messi and surprise counters... get the game to 70th minute with scores still relatively intact and bring Mbappe off the bench.

Key is surviving until second leg.