The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.
The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.
A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6
The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.
A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6
The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that
1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.
Details. 👇
2/
1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.
Details. 👇
2/
https://twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1623660654673465348
Global liquidity has been driven by China especially during this year with the onset of QT:s by the #FederalReserve and the #ECB.
The slump in October was followed by a massive increase in November, which lifted the markets. 3/
The slump in October was followed by a massive increase in November, which lifted the markets. 3/
Now, however, the 'draining phase' is about to begin again.
4/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
4/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
Thus, March and April are likely to see a both declining economic indicators and output combined with a notable decline or even a crash in market liquidity.
So, be prepared for a revived bear market and serious volatility in the financial markets in the coming months. ☝️
5/
So, be prepared for a revived bear market and serious volatility in the financial markets in the coming months. ☝️
5/
Note also that any nasty geopolitical and/or economic shock could turn the volatility into a full-blown rout.
Preparation is the preferable policy.
/End
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…
Preparation is the preferable policy.
/End
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…
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