Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 21 6 tweets 3 min read
The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.

The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.

A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6
The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that

1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.

Details. 👇
2/
Global liquidity has been driven by China especially during this year with the onset of QT:s by the #FederalReserve and the #ECB.

The slump in October was followed by a massive increase in November, which lifted the markets. 3/
Now, however, the 'draining phase' is about to begin again.
4/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
Thus, March and April are likely to see a both declining economic indicators and output combined with a notable decline or even a crash in market liquidity.

So, be prepared for a revived bear market and serious volatility in the financial markets in the coming months. ☝️
5/
Note also that any nasty geopolitical and/or economic shock could turn the volatility into a full-blown rout.

Preparation is the preferable policy.
/End
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…

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More from @mtmalinen

Feb 18
Past week I promised a (long) thread on global #liquidity and so, here goes!

I have been analyzing the current state global liquidity since early November. Then I warned on possibility of an outright collapse of market liquidity.
🧵1/25
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui…
Basically, I re-iterated our original warning from October 2018, when we had discovered that:

1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/
3. The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

These straight-forwardly implied that:
"The increased role of non-bank institutions in providing credit means that an increasing proportion of international finance comes..."
3/
Read 25 tweets
Feb 9
I'll do one more effort to explain, why the "recession is cancelled" argument is false. 🧵

It is based on ignorance on the forces that lifted the global economy from its slump in the fall.

Global recession is still very much 'on the cards'. 1/17
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl…
Everything you need to know is summarized in this graph. It shows that Chinese business (debt) cycle leads European cycle by around 3-4mo and the global business cycle by around 4-5mo.

In tight turning points (crises), with synchronous response, the lag is shorter. 2/ Image
This relationship was revealed in 2015/2016.

In 2015 Chinese leaders tried to stabilize the economy by tightening the availability of credit especially to the manufacturing sector, which led to a slump in the Chinese housing market, which had already weakened in 2014. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Dec 8, 2022
Seven charts to explain, why the U.S. is heading into a #recession (which is unlikely to be "mild"). 🧵

Let's start with the most problematic one: the yield curves. Many read these like the Bible, and they rarely have gotten it wrong. However, this time there's a problem.
1/14 Image
Our first-ever U.S. #recession call, in March 2019, predicting the beginning of an U.S. recession in early 2020, was based on the inversion of the yields of the Treasuries with 10-year and 3-month maturities.

But, they are being manipulated. 2/
gnseconomics.com/2019/03/27/rec…
This is depicted in the strange divergence of the 10y/3mo and 10y/2y spreads in early 2022 shown in the figure above. I explained this in detail in my @EpochOpinion piece in May.

Main point: purchases of Treasuries by the #Fed are twisting the curves. 3/
theepochtimes.com/recession-come…
Read 14 tweets

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