Thread by @Flight_Useful

$panr #panr $pthrf

Long 🧵

Some random thoughts for $panr this year and setting some context:

1. Strengthen the board with non exec directors with industry reach and deal structuring experience.
2. Commission blue chip US sell side broker…transitioning to Nasdaq

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3. Production: Given it’s close proximity to the highway Alkaid 2 well is already base case economic at current flow rates giving $40 a day revenue (even with a pipe blockage & increased well costs modelled in base case scenario) making the point we are already solid.
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https://twitter.com/Scot126126/status/1618281560243073026

Micheal Duncan PANR VP operations and engineering (quote) “This is a very commercial project even with what we’ve seen so far”

So we further wait to see what the full 5000ft lateral produces when we have 100% connectivity of well bore to the reservoir (with blockage was..
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….only 70-80% connection)!

4. Who knows when the tipping point is reached before the AGM <30 days (?) $panr has traded on Psychology,
the shorters have had their day but success at Alkaid changes that perception from opinion to irrefutable evidence of effective reservoirs.

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What’s that worth today? WH Ireland says £1.99 and unrisked £10+

5. Lastly, some thoughts about the importance of context.

The north slope Alaska is early in adopting well completion techniques used across shale and tight reservoirs.

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PANR have 5 stacked reservoirs with a range of poro (~10%) - perm (0.001-1 md) characteristics which due to DMAX across the areal extent we could see a two log unit increase across the acreage. Where a 0.01 md perm at Talitha Well could be ~0.1-1 md updip at Theta West.

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The point being this range of poro-perms are seen as 100x better than that of Permian basin shale rock that sparked years of unconventional oil production in the lower 48.

Remember the context: PANR has vast pay sands (1000ft deep proven oil column) an accumulation of the

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Basement Floor Fan (BFF) reservoir across the 10miles acreage. At scale & in this context it’s far far far more attractive a play than shale even considering unconventional methods need to be refined on the Alaskan North slope.

Let’s listen to Philip. Who?

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PANR non Exec Phillip Gobe has over 40 years’ experience in the oil and gas business including a role as Operations Manager of Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, he’s also the Chairman of ProPetro one of the biggest fraccing companies in the Permian. His words at the recent $PANR webinar:
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“The good news for us I believe as I mentioned earlier, where I think Alaska will play a critical role in energy security and supply. With the new development showing up on the North Slope specifically Willow and others, we would expect service intensity would pick up,

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and we would begin to attract more equipment, better personnel and better outcomes for the North Slope.
The one thing I think is important to keep in mind is, shale companies have had over 10 years to refine their Drilling and completions technique.

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We're just beginning on the slope, but we were able to capture a lot of the 10 years of experiences, that the EMPs went through in the lower 48, to apply to the North Slope, and I would expect the same outcomes, that the shale players saw from their refinement process,

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to ours lower drilling cost by 30 to 50 percent Better production performance 20 to 30 percent as well in Ultimate recoveries to increase by over 50 percent". (Quote Phil Gobe)

Takeaway - PANR has prime acreage ready to be exploited in this next cycle.

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Remember the context:
Location.

North of $panr acreage is the ConocoPhillips Willow project (mentioned by Philip above).

Conoco Phillips in 2019 said that they would be in production in 2022- Well now because of capital costs Conoco is saying that it will be 2030

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for first production from Willow & only if they get all the things they need from the state/fed govt and after spending $4bn for infrastructure.

Contrast that with PANR
which has max infrastructure costs of 200$m and many fields right next to the Highway and oil sitting

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under the Trans Alaska pipeline. This context is vastly under appreciated by the market.

$Panr will be more economic a project than Conoco’s Willow.

Read that again, slowly.

PANR will be more economic a project than Conoco’s 4$b infrastructure investment at Williow.

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Management have stated they wish to prove up and sell on the 100% working interest (WI). Until that day they get on with building a credible business.

The foundation is set, growth from here with 2.3 Bbls potentially recoverable is why we sit and wait.

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The first of 5 stacked reservoirs, the Greater Alkaid anomaly currently on production test, accounts for just 3% of recoverable oil on PANR leases….the NVP @$80 oil covers the current market cap even before well drilling efficiencies highlighted by Philip Gobe are added back
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The flow test results so far have been shown to pass the base case commercial threshold.

We await ~750 boepd from full 5000ft lateral seeing future wells producing over 1500boepd from long laterals of ~10,000ft length. Highly economic. Over $80k revenue per day x 56 wells.

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We are still early, the shorters have concluded too soon and the $panr opportunity is mispriced.

Finally, we have set up a Geology - Educational- Channel. Why not join and watch the story play out along with industry pro’s.

All the best
✈️

Invite link:
discord.gg/NSxzCwg4kv

*$40k a day revenue. Lol.

analysis of gas cap by AlaskaGeoPhiz.

https://twitter.com/flight_useful/status/1630555078850494465