🧵I keep getting emails from various people to tell me that 1. #Ukraine can’t win or 2. that the war in UKR is a distraction from the real threat posed by #China. Then I get those about how we are depleting our stocks and won’t have enough should a crisis erupt over #Taiwan 1/5
To the first point: Neither I nor the naysayers know what the final outcome in #Ukraine will be. Wars are inherently unpredictable.They are not just about mass, population, or resources. History is replete with wars where a smaller but better motivated and led force prevailed 2/5
To the second point: We are in a global contest between democracies and dictatorships. #Russia and #China are aligned against us not because we pushed them together but because they share the same interest: to dismantle the current order. These theaters are interconnected. 3/5
So for the US, focusing on #Europe vs #Asia is not an “either-or” proposition; it’s “together-with.” What happens in one theater shapes what will happen in the other, and vice versa. Russia’s victory in Ukraine will reverberate in the Pacific, as will #Ukraine’s win. 4/5
To the third point: Yes, if we want to help #Ukraine win we will continue to deplete our stocks of weapons and munitions UNLESS govts finally decide to move to wartime production, spend the money. It is about political will. How determined are we to ensure democracies win? 5/End
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