Thread by @WilliamYang120

Following @XiomaraCastroZ's explosive announcement of her intention to establish diplomatic ties with #China, @dajungli told me that some incidents in recent months showed concerning signs that #Taiwan's relations with #Honduras may be in jeopardy." dw.com/zh/%E5%AE%8F%E…

"Honduras was the only diplomatic ally who didn't mention Taiwan in their speech during the UN general assembly last year."

"Another key factor in Taiwan's diplomatic relationship with Honduras in the United States. The US sent a delegation to Honduras prior to the presidential election in 2021, telling both candidates that they hope Honduras would maintain its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan.

In January 2023, USAID invited Taiwan to join a project of rebuilding schools in Honduras after Castro's husband publicly said Honduras should establish diplomatic relations with China."

"In addition to Taiwan's own efforts and resources, Taiwan's diplomatic posture in Honduras still depends to a large extent on the support of the United States, so the U.S. factor is still crucial."

"Because of Taiwan's limited diplomatic resources, it is impossible for Taiwan to compete with China in diplomacy around the world. Taiwan should set a reasonable limit on the issue of economic assistance to its diplomatic allies.

Although Taiwan has been emphasizing its substantive relationship with non-bonded countries in recent years, they are still important to Taiwan's international position because they will directly mention Taiwan at the United Nations."

"Whether Honduras and Taiwan can maintain their diplomatic relations or not will be an important indicator of US influence in Central America.

If Taiwan can maintain diplomatic relations with Honduras for a period of time, it means the U.S. still has considerable influence in the region, but it depends on how much help the U.S. is willing to invest in this relationship."

"If the US can play a bigger role in supporting Taiwan's efforts to maintain diplomatic allies, it will demonstrate to Taiwan that they are not only talking about supporting Taiwan's international space but also helping Taiwan to retain its diplomatic allies.

If Honduras still decides to cut ties with Taiwan and establish diplomatic relations with China, it will be a serious warning sign to the US in terms of their influence in Central America."