Thread by @Martin_Sauer

Todays statement by @IntlCrimCourt is alot more than just symbolic. Quite the contrary:

These arrest warrants have an impact.

A few remarks as a 🧵

1/13

#Putin #Russia #Ukraine #Hofmanski

https://twitter.com/IntlCrimCourt/status/1636747023490719745

First of all the important points:
1- Crime against humanity
2- War crime
3- Warrant of arrest against President Putin
4- Warrant of arrest against Ms. Lvova-Belova

2/13

The ICC as such confirms crimes against humanity by Russia in Ukraine as well as war crimes by Russia. Furthermore the ICC confirms jurisdiction in this case.

Even more the ICC confirms allegedly reasonable responsibility by both: President Putin and Ms. Lvova-Belova.

3/13

Those crimes exist. This is more than symbolic.

Fasten your seat belts:

4/13

First and foremost, crimes against humanity are attributable to the 1945 London Charter as part of international criminal law. In its current form for the ICC, the Rome Statute is the legal source.

5/13

This part is independent of the actual war and draws a very direct line to past crimes against humanity.

In effect, it brings Russia's crimes in its significance close to the Nuremberg Trials and thus the associated actions that will be prosecuted in the future.

6/13

What are the consequences?

Many! Get ready:

7/13

- Considering all the Russians involved, we are talking about hundreds, maybe thousands of people being held accountable. Many Russians will face prosecution, a warrant of arrest and a trial.

8/13

- From the end phase of WW2 we know that potential prosecution enabled a change of mind in the Wehrmacht and even parts of Waffen-SS: Soldiers switched sides, whole Wehrmacht units turned and fought with allies against Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS, victims were spared,..

9/13

- Quite likely this will make Russians, maybe even some close to Putin rethink their stance towards Putins Russia.

Russia is not a safe place for those, when other Russians need to save themselves. Quite the contrary.

10/13

Bottom line:
* If #Putin doesnt die an unfortunate death, it is quite possible to see him in Den Haag
* We will see hundreds of Russians in Den Haag once the war is over
* This adds to the possibility of Russia "breaking". It's probably not the last step, but one of many

11/13

Even more important:
* More than one child will be sparred from the fate of Russian abduction
* Child will be reunited earlier with their parents. More than one

The last two points simply because more than one Russian will come to her/his senses and do the right thing.

12/13

This is a bold move and a strong message, which effectively saves lives.

Of children.

And that is good.

13/13

@denistrubetskoy this is for you and also for @sumlenny.

A1/A

@denistrubetskoy @sumlenny That was a strong and impressive move. I needed some time, but once I realized the impact, I was very surprised.

Thank you to @IntlCrimCourt, esspecially to @PiotrHofmanski.

A2/A

@denistrubetskoy @sumlenny @IntlCrimCourt @PiotrHofmanski Remember:

A3/A

https://twitter.com/ChPalme/status/1636835676409790464

@denistrubetskoy @sumlenny @IntlCrimCourt @PiotrHofmanski Mentioned in a German Tweet by me: there is a hint in the ICC statement, that those two warrants are most likely just two of many.

Feels good not being the only one to notice it.

A4/A

https://twitter.com/ChPalme/status/1636780359735033876

@denistrubetskoy @sumlenny @IntlCrimCourt @PiotrHofmanski Now we know, why Russia commented the arrest warrant the way they did: Interesting drift. We shall see.

"There is no place like home! There is no place like home!" <click> <click>

This won't work anymore for #Putin.

A5/A

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1637071918414135298