Continues to blow my mind how ST people are. #gold now very overbought/extended while up 1.5% w/#silver & $GDX down 7% last 6 wks.

Puts far from getting "crushed" despite this move. Not seeing any reason to exit or go long, based on my time horizon.

And #FOMC next wk. Patience/ Image
Meantime, I'll let the gold bugs gloat at my expense. Lord knows they don't get to do it often. Have a few days of fun amidst last 2yrs of losses.

Some context, $GDX/ $GLD couldn't make a close above where it was just 2 days ago. 1 day is not a trend, zoom out & look at the avg/ Image
What I see is panic buying in #gold, the safe haven. #silver & $GDX feels like all short covering B4 weekend. Short covering is great ST, but will it carry over to new longs buying at these levels, fade quickly?

Have fun over ydays ST pennies. I'm thinking medium term dollars/
Point on strategy: we enter 1/3 puts because good price. Next, we either get a 2nd crack at "good price" or we enter 2nd 3rd because PA breaks down, confirming our view. We got good price so bought 2nd 3rd. Now, we will ONLY enter last 3rd on confirmation. Need PA to break down.

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More from @Jmergz1985

Dec 30, 2022
Going to outline EXACTLY what we're doing, why & some details on the models, their signals & how I interpret them here.

A bit of a free preview of what we're going to be doing on the Patreon.com/alchemyfinanci… site & discord chat when it officially launches (now likely February)/
1st, buying 1/3 position in $GDX Mar 28 puts here ~1.60. 3mos is enough time. 1/3 position cause might be dull 4 a bit. Gives time to buy another 1/3 if signals strengthen w/minimal risk if we're wrong. May get stuck with only 2/3 position if GDX tanks fast, but that's ok/
The model I use for hedging entries is the same I use for profit taking on longs, just backwards. Here's how it works:

Multiple factors I've spoken about B4 are weighted according to what I believe is their level of importance. The model then gives a value, not a flashing "buy"/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 19, 2022
Getting a big bounce out of $Euro here right after hitting parity, thus putting a pause on the $DXY rally for now.

A backtest of the major support it broke in the 105 area seems logical & about the area where RSI would hit 60, which it has failed at on every rally for 1 yr now/
$Copper bouncing off 50% Fib retrace ('08 low to '22 high) ~ 3.15. Down 38% now just since March & RSI has been <30 for 1 month.

Seems about time for a pause here. If Dr. Copper is pausing it's collapse w/Euro & DXY paring off, feels like time for "risk on" bear market rally/
Makes sense, as we're seeing $SPX break out above this downtrend line here. Too many bears becoming complacent. RSI has failed at 60 on every rally since Dec (typical of bear markets). Currently at 55, I'd watch that level for another failure & initial resistance ~4100)/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 7, 2022
Gap fill on $GDXJ & $SILJ last week, but no such luck with $GDX. Stopped dead at the gap now may be rolling over. (Upside, GDX held lows while GDXJ & SILJ broke them & recovered)

There are a few things concerning me here with miners that seem a bit reminiscent of last summer/
$Euro has been a perfect example recently of something I've illustrated before in articles. Bull markets, RSI>40, MACD above 0. Bear markets RSI<60 MACD<0. Euro has been declining for a whole yr now. RSI never printed above 60, MACD has stayed below 0 line the whole time/
Notice $GDX chart. Decline phases red, incline green. Inclines=corrections to near MAs, then resume higher RSI> 40, MACD>0. Declines=price peaks just above MAs, RSI<60, MACD<0 line.

Price rolling over testing orange MA w/ RSI ~52 & MACD<0. Feeling like summer 2021 again/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 26, 2021
I have some friends coming to visit so I have a lot to do today. Im not panicking over rising #rates.

Here's why. Some charts of what happened to #gold miners during the biggest rate rise in the last 50yrs.

Banner Resources. 34c in 1978 to $16 in 1980. A 4,600% gain in 2 yrs.
Carolin Mines. From a low of 2.20 in 1978, to a high of 56.5 in 1980. This occured while 10 yr rates nearly doubled from 7% to 13% in the same time frame.
Silver Stack Mines. A low of 1.30 in 1978, to a high of $36 by 1980.
Read 11 tweets

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