Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #rates

Most recents (24)

As expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee continued to discuss its plans to reduce, or #taper, the pace of its #AssetPurchase program at yesterday’s meeting.
While the details of this discussion were fairly sparse, the Committee statement did state that: “If progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be warranted.”
Further, at the recent #Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., and at the press conference, Fed #ChairPowell emphasized that both he and most Committee participants now consider the test of “substantial further progress” toward the #inflation mandate to be largely satisfied.
Read 10 tweets
Getting some DMs whether #stock #market is going to crash.
Remember a few things.
#Bullmarket in midway when person like me without any #financialeducation / #stocks knowledge tweets regularly as expert!
When people R at fear of #Markets crash!
When everyone is putting (1/n)
Their #money into #LargeCap from #midandsmall #caps!

Sign of #impending #crash in #Markets :
People #invest in very high valuation stocks without any fundamentals!
#Deja_vu that bear market doesn't exist!
People feel to leave job as #Markets a better and regular place to (2/n)
#Earn!
People R buying #realestate as if there is no #Tomorrow!
#Ileterate people like #me feels they contol D #Markets!
#Asset #heavy #businesses R running #amok!
#bond #yield n #interest #rates all time high!
#Danger ⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡⚡

U R on D verge of crash!
Read 3 tweets
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Read 10 tweets
Is there an incoming policy error by the Federal Reserve? $DXY #FederalReserve #Dollar #Policy #Fed

Thread 1/
Over the past several weeks, we have seen significant Central Bank actions globally. This reflects a market flush with cash and a desire by the Federal Reserve to hold short-term rates positive. 2/
Mid-June 2021 FOMC Summary:
1. Unchanged rate and QE policy
2. Reverse Repo rate increase to 5bps
3. IOER increase to 15 bps
4. Dot plot showing rate hikes sooner than expected
3/
Read 17 tweets
Me reading the revisions on the last new home sales print 🇺🇸💪🏽📈🔥
Remember when people were worried about a W recovery 😏🤣, I don’t think this was it. Honestly, this last report was so good I want to see if it sticks because the new home sales report can be wild month to month—however, those revisions 🔥.
Read 4 tweets
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
Then, 2) from Apr through Oct 2020 we witnessed the #market impact of monumental #monetary and #fiscal policy responses to the #crisis, as policymakers successfully sought to force #real rates down and restore #inflation expectations.
Read 10 tweets
Lumber Prices Are Soaring. Why Are Tree Growers Miserable?
Sawmill operators harvest gains while Southern landowners struggle with tree surplus; ‘I’m not making anything’

wsj.com/articles/lumbe…
Mortgage Companies Want In on the IPO Boom. Investors Aren’t Convinced. 

Initial public offerings for mortgage lenders haven’t worked out the way all the companies were hoping
wsj.com/articles/mortg… #realestate #rates #home #housing #credit
Read 11 tweets
I have some friends coming to visit so I have a lot to do today. Im not panicking over rising #rates.

Here's why. Some charts of what happened to #gold miners during the biggest rate rise in the last 50yrs.

Banner Resources. 34c in 1978 to $16 in 1980. A 4,600% gain in 2 yrs.
Carolin Mines. From a low of 2.20 in 1978, to a high of 56.5 in 1980. This occured while 10 yr rates nearly doubled from 7% to 13% in the same time frame.
Silver Stack Mines. A low of 1.30 in 1978, to a high of $36 by 1980.
Read 11 tweets
Recently, Dr. Shiller suggested that #valuations really aren't that high once you fall in the #Fed trap of using #earnings #yields and #low #rates to justify it. The problem is it is a #rationalization to justify overpaying for #assets.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
The main problem in using low-interest rates as a rationalization to overpay for assets is that you have to also discount #future #cashflows for lower inflation and rates as well.
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
"As low-interest rates went lower, the dynamic changed from using debt productively to using debt for non-productive purposes such as dividend issuance, share buybacks, and, in some cases, offsetting negative cash flows."
realinvestmentadvice.com/shiller-ecy-ju…
Read 6 tweets
The #FOMC today began the process of “operationalizing” the average inflation targeting framework that Chair #Powell first laid out in his Jackson Hole, WY, Economic Policy Conference speech: including new guidance on how long #policy rates can be expected to remain near zero.
Specifically, policy #rates will remain at current levels “until #labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum #employment and #inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”
Still, we’re skeptical about the achievability of this #inflation goal when the #disinflationary influences of technological #innovation and the #demographic trend of #population aging arguably hold a greater impact on the rate of inflation than central bank #policy does.
Read 6 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…
Read 7 tweets
We’ve seen near a 20-basis point backup in long #bond #rates since the beginning of the month, which has come alongside many #economic data prints that have surprised to the upside, as well as firmer than expected #inflation. Image
One question to consider, then, is how much of this #economic improvement is due to restocking dynamics versus more permanent/structural gains to #economic activity? The answer to that is likely to become more apparent in the months ahead.
We foresee a gradually rising range for long-end #yields in the year’s second half, as @USTreasury issuance will remain robust. Image
Read 5 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport, which witnessed nearly 1.8 million #jobs gained in the month of July, was stronger than many anticipated, yet it also displayed some signs of slowdown in #labor #market improvement.
The report shows that the pace of #job-gain acceleration has now slowed markedly, and it is our best guess that the rapid rate of return to #work will now exhibit a very deliberate pace of rebound from here.
That’s particularly the case for some sectors, such as #retail and #leisure #hospitality, where the slowing in improvement was even more pronounced.
Read 7 tweets
#Thread
#Article370 #NayaKashmir

#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

A New Era Unfolds in #Jammu & #Kashmir post #Article370. A #thread #Investment #Development & #Employment. Removal on Article 370 encouraged Industries & investment spurring growth & employment
@CestMoiz Image
#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

#Education & #Health.

20000 #students from J&K goes outside to study.
#Patients forced to travel Delhi or Mumbai for special treatments. Large private investment in #health & education sector will change this narrative.
(1/n) Image
#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

New Dawn for #Youth

While the children of elite studied abroad, poors in J&K were denied decent education facilities. Equal opportunities will be ensured with focus on #education #industrialization & #tourism
@neeraj_rajput
(2/n) ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
#Thread (1/13)

#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

Big Boost for #Tourism.
The toursim potential of J&K is immense. There was no major national or global player in tourism sector earlier. Investment in tourist infrastructure like hotels will increase tourist arrivals.
#Thread (2/13)

#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

#Education & #Health.

20000 #students from J&K goes outside to study.
#Patients forced to travel Delhi or Mumbai for special treatments. Large private investment in #health & education sector will change this narrative.
#Thread (3/13)

#Kashmir post #Abrogation of #Article370

Benefits to #Land #Owners.

#Land #rates remained stagnant in J&K due to restrictions of land transfer. Now lande owner who wishes to sell his land can #benefit from increased prices.
Read 18 tweets
#RBI cut by 40bps each of these👇
#Repo rate to 4%
#ReverseRepo to 3.35%
#BankRate to 4.25%

Decision was reached after 5:1 vote,with #ChetanGhate,lone voice calling for 25 bps cut

#MPC meet was held ahead of schedule from 3rd-5th,June

#EMI #moratoroum extended by 3 more months
Moratorium extension till 31st August 2020,is both timely &reflective of @narendramodi govt's alacrity--Big relief to #MiddleClass

Measure to convert #moratorium interest payment into #TermLoan payable in FY21,is helpful

This will reduce #NPAs &stress on banks' balance sheets
#RBI's cut in #Repo will reduce cost of funds&extension of #moratorium will be supportive of financial stability;#Rates across #YieldCurve will move lower from current levels

Fall in #ReverseRepo rate will disincentivise banks from #hoarding #liquidity&coax them to lend

#Covid
Read 10 tweets
A very interesting @WSJ article over the weekend regarding how #European governments that have railed against U.S. big #tech companies over privacy concerns are now embracing these same companies’ #coronavirus contact tracing #technologies.
This gets to a longtime argument we’ve made about @ecb policy and the role of #innovation in spurring greater #growth in the region: blackrockblog.com/2019/07/25/bol…
Essentially, it has long been our view that negative interest rates (#NIRP) are counterproductive and what’s needed is #equity investment in innovation, #technology, and 21st century #infrastructure.
Read 8 tweets
All eyes will be on the @federalreserve and the @ecb policy meetings this week, particularly as the @EUCouncil meeting last week was directionally encouraging but lacking in #policy specificity.
Regarding the #Fed, we expect the Committee to reiterate its guidance that the target range for the federal funds rate will remain at zero until after #coronavirus-related disruptions to the #economy have healed.
Further, while the #FOMC will have to update its statement a good deal to better reflect the severity of the #economic contraction underway, it will also take the opportunity to describe the transition from emergency support of market functioning to a long-term #LSAP regime. Image
Read 6 tweets
Recent actions by the @federalreserve have been awe-inspiring; I’m not sure what words would be stronger than that- but they’re required.
The #Fed has gotten at interest #rates, the #mortgage market, the financing markets, and the #Treasury market (and particularly the functioning of the off-the-run-issues).
Specifically, tonight we’ve seen an historic 100 basis point #policy rate cut (and a commitment to maintain it until conditions normalize), #bank borrowing from the discount window cut 150 bps, to 0.25%, with term #funds to be offered…
Read 8 tweets
The #RBA has cut interest rates to a new record low of 0.5 per cent to counter the hit to the #economy caused by the #coronavirus. #abc730 @carringtonAU
@carringtonAU “It's not going to do anything for universities, Chinese restaurants, travel agents, supply chains that have been blocked from China and so on. The interest rate is not really the right sort of instrument to this sort of problem.” - Fmr RBA board member Bob Gregory #abc730 #rates
@carringtonAU Brad Stephens and Kate Halton say the rate cut doesn’t mean they will spend more. “We would be much more inclined to probably just tip that back into the mortgage and just bring our principal down a bit more.” – Brad Stephens. #abc730 #rates
Read 3 tweets
Clearly, #markets are in the midst of a #volatility spike, and indeed economic data for a time will be more #volatile and less certain, but at times like this it’s particularly important for investors to think hard about those factors that matter most to markets.
As such, next of our 8 @blackrock blog themes are: 3) that “1.8%” can still be a guidepost for understanding the trajectory of #economy and #markets in 2020, assuming #coronavirus risk can be mitigated; and 4) #inflation may see its best post-crisis year, but not exceed 2%.
More specifically, we think U.S. real #GDP growth and core #inflation are likely poised to stabilize near longer-run averages of roughly 1.8% this year, but clearly significant left-tail risks to global growth have increased.
Read 8 tweets
Over the past decade, the #Fed (and other developed market central banks) have been the story to follow for those seeking to understand the direction of the #economy and #markets, but we think this might be changing now.
That is due to the fact that the stability of the #economy, of job markets, and of #inflation has driven the Fed’s notoriety down multiple notches, at least temporarily, now that the economy can in fact stand on its own and that interest #rates are at accommodative levels.
This morning’s #inflation data illustrated another example of this stability, with modestly firming price increases in many areas of the economy, few areas of real concern, and moderately higher levels of pricing power exhibited in some #service sectors. Image
Read 5 tweets
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1
@threadreaderapp

#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA #NCLT #growth
On the other hand #CPI is now at 4.6%. The laxmanrekha of 4% has been breached. A mix of drought, floods and unseasonal rain is driving food prices up. Core #inflation continues to fall to 3.7% reflecting the slowdown. /2
#India #GDP #RBI #bonds #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA
The wisemen and women of the economy have only one mantra - Cut, Pray, Hope. When in doubt cut rates.135 bps done but transmission is limited. We are told don’t look at nominal, real rates are still high. A single large cut is required. /3
#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation
Read 16 tweets

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