Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #rates

Most recents (24)

Below is a MEGA thread containing the 100 greatest winners from 1880-2009 ūüďą

LIKE ūüĎć & RETWEET ūüĒĄ to spread the wealth of knowledgeūüíł

Charts are sourced from none other than the GOAT William O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks"

But first, why do these charts matter?

ūüĎá
They go back to 1880. This shows the timeless principles that we are using here. It is the law of supply and demand. These patterns work because they are the effect of institutional demand, not the cause.

This strategy is RESILIENT
If your goal is to identify stocks with big potential, you need to know what will drive prices up. Institutional demand is what moves prices. They are are the biggest buyers (and sellers) in the market. They want growth in earnings, sales and margins.
Read 108 tweets
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Read 40 tweets
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Read 4 tweets
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Read 4 tweets
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Read 6 tweets
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Read 4 tweets
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Read 18 tweets
#Engel suunnitteli tämän rakennuksen #Senaatintori'n ladalle, mutta #venäläiset rakensivat sen.
- Kuten #siionisti'en määräämät #Lenin- ja #RauhanPatsas poistot, tämä häpeällinen 'valtioneuvoston linna', olisi enempien miljardi -tuhojen estämiseksi poistettava #WTC911 tapaan. Image
Niinsanotun 'Valtioneuvoston', linna
- Eugen #Schauman ampui kenraalikuvernööri Nikolai #Bobrikovin kuoliaaksi linnan toisen kerroksen tasanteella vuonna 1904. Surmapaikalle on myöhemmin kiinnitetty muistolaatta.
fi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valtioneu… ImageImage
The #Davos controlled #FifthColumn, selected by rigged #elections in 2019 in the #HappiestCountry.
- The only target is to destroy #Finnish #economy by crushing the resistance using famine, to pave a way to a archipelago of #NATO #NuclearWeapons. Image
Read 9 tweets
How do Interest Rates Affect the Market?
(Simple version)

1. Rising #interest #rates slow growth. Cost of capital higher!
Slowed growth & lower profits. Some are more sensitive than others depending on their debt, bus models, etc.
Diminished future valuations.
Margins compressed
2. When gov bonds (safer) offer higher yields, why take on more risk (stocks) unless equities offer higher returns?
ūüíęBonds are more attractive until stock valuations fall!ūüíę
*This is key! Think P/E has to come down for earnings yields to go UP!
3. Real Interest Rates affects stock valuation estimates. When rates rise, it diminishes the value of future earnings & reduces stock value.
ūüíęCatalyst in selloff of growth tech & other high growth companies whose value is dependent on future earnings growthūüíę
Read 8 tweets
#PCE #Core #Inflation keeps rising.

Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.

#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.

ūüßĶ
By "into pain", they are primarily referring to their dual mandate of price stability (#inflation) and maximum #Employment.

But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.

Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.

reuters.com/markets/us/us-…
So to summarize, #TheFed has 2 jobs:
1. Reduce #inflation (not done)
2. Maximize #employment (done)

And they've been adamant about raising #rates until 1. is done, even at temporary setbacks to 2.

Unless they plan on pulling a #BoE, anything short of #75bps/#100bps is hopium.
Read 4 tweets
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Read 8 tweets
DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Rehab."

Tune in Thursday, 9/15/2022 at 1:15 pm PT | 4:15 pm ET.

#macro #markets #commodities #Fed #inflation #growth #rates #stocks #bonds #EM #Europe #USD #FOMC #Powell #recession Image
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: I think the U.S. needs to go into rehab
Gundlach: There are 1,250 IRS agents who are not paying taxes. 87,00 new IRS agents coming.
Read 65 tweets
The rates conversation is - should be - complex.

Some thoughts, in an interest rate ūüßĶ

#ausbiz #rates #RBA

1/n
There's a decent 'chart crime' - or at least a meaningful misdemeanour - on the AFR's homepage this morning:

2/n
It's rectified in the article:

BUT... that's not even close to the full picture:

(source: afr.com/policy/economy…)

3/n
Read 19 tweets
Today's #MacroView is out. Why today isn't 1982 and Jerome Powell isn't Paul Volker.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an…
The road to 1982 didn‚Äôt start in 1980. The buildup of #inflation started long before the #ArabOil Embargo. Economic growth, wages, and savings rates catalyzed ‚Äúdemand push‚ÄĚ inflation.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Furthermore, the Government ran no deficit, and household debt to net worth was about 60%. So, while #inflation increased and interest #rates rose, the average household could sustain their living standard.
realinvestmentadvice.com/paul-volker-an… Image
Read 5 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macroūüßĶ
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
ūüö®FOMC preview ...ūüßĶ

Target rate probabilities for July 27 (Wed) between 225 and 275 with 3x as much probability on 225-250 (75 bps).

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
Fed will be data driven.

Currently, the market is factoring in target rate probabilities (Dec 2022 FOMC meeting) at 325-375 bps.

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets #CentralBanks
ūüďČDesired demand reduction is visible.

Consumer confidence and subsequently, Retail is taking a massive beating.

JP Morgan global aggregates. ūüĎá

#rates #bonds #federalreserve #us #UnitedStates #fed #macroeconomics #EconTwitter #FOMC #tightening #riskoff #stocks #riskassets
Read 4 tweets
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets

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