Thread by @AltcoinSherpa

$BTC is going up but my #Altcoins aren't moving? What gives?

Thread on where I think we're at in the market cycle and some context of 2020 for you with #Bitcoin and $ETH #Ethereum

Cliffs: If #BTC holds up, $ALTS are going to send strongly (eventually)

To be clear, I don't think that the current cycle is going to be nearly as strong as 2020. That was a massive run from 10-60k, where btc accumulated for most of 2020 and collected A LOT of liquidity on the March 2020 crash.

Alts also bled for a full 2 year period in 2018-2019

With that said, I think there are a lot of comparisons you can check.

Note: This is all with the premise that #Bitcoin is strong and will continue higher. If btc just starts to die off at 28-32k and full retraces, of course alts are going to get turborekt.

The overall stage is 2020. $BTC accumulated for most of the year, which left some insane moves for #Altcoins.

Alt/btc pairs got destroyed for 2 years straight and btc.d was very high (relatively).

DeFi summer led the charge. Coins like $AAVE, $CRV, $YFI did incredibly.

After the big summer run, the Fall of 2020 provided a strong cooling period for many altcoins after their run. Many of them retraced bigtime, with DeFi coins going down a ton. All of this was happening while BTC was starting to have its epic run.

"But $BTC is going up, why aren't altcoins following?"

It's because alts had a very strong run in the summer and needed to reset.

Alts needed to cool off and many of them either consolidated or went down in USD value while BTC was skyrocketing.

BTC.D went up as a result.

Even though alt/usd sometimes was stable (see $DOT), the overall alt/btc values died.

Alt/btc value down = you would have been better off holding #Bitcoin and not the alt.

And this is painful because the majority of crypto participants own alts, not $BTC.

But what happened once #Bitcoin took a break?

We saw altcoins full send. Many of them exited their multimonth consolidation period and we had the second greatest alt season of all time in January 2021.

Everyone was making a shitton of $ and $BTC.D went down significantly.

Now, where are we at currently?

BTC is currently exiting a multi month range and macro, for the first time, seems ok with fed pumping $.

If btc runs hard, we should see targets from 35-40k IMO.

What happens during this time? I think BTC.D and bitcoin dominance goes higher. This means that alt/btc pairs continue to go down and alt/usd likely chops around as well.

But after btc starts to cool and consolidate?

Alts should full send and take off.

Contextually, it also makes sense. Alts just had a strong run recently and many went several x from the bottom. $GALA $SYN $AVAX

I expect them to continue to cool off for the next several weeks as BTC continues to do its thing. Expecting a lot more chop/downtrend for many.

In the short term, I don't think it makes sense to trade anything but btc and/or just shorting altcoins.

Accumulating BTC and then flipping to $ETH is also a very viable strategy. I think that #Ethereum goes to the .055 level for $ETHBTC eventually.

Once you buy a bunch of eth at .055 with btc, then you hold that as ETH should out perform btc for the short period.

There are a lot of ways to play this overall.

If you're like most people, my advice would be to just chill out and not do much; continue to DCA into alts...

Because if btc continues to run, I don't see alts doing great.

And if btc pulls back even the slightest, alts are dying big

With that said, it sets the stage for a very strong altcoin run as they continue to consolidate and btc is the leader. A rising tide lifts all ships.

Which alts to buy? It's probably going to continue to be narrative driven. I think there are exciting opportunities on the $ARB ecosystem coming up and there will be new narratives coming up.

I'm probably going to just stick with the 1s w. most liquidity + the new alts prob.

Is the bottom in? I have zero idea. But I do believe bitcoin is going to head to the mid 30ks-40ks and we will have a strong altcoin run when btc decides to chill. But it's likely going to be several weeks or more from now.

Be patient and really keep an eye on BTC price action.

Stay safe, continue to preserve capital, and watch btc. Mark BTC S/R levels carefully and DCA into some alts you enjoy (IF BTC continues its run).

I'm rooting for you and I hope that you make it.