Today, Secretary Blinken has announced the findings of the State Department's review of atrocities reported during the war in northern #Ethiopia:
🔹all parties to the conflict committed war crimes
🔹the ENDF, EDF, and Amhara forces committed crimes against humanity in Tigray
🔹Amhara forces committed the crime against humanity of deportation or forcible transfer, and committed ethnic cleansing through their treatment of Tigrayans in Western Tigray.
Blinken cited "murder, rape, and other forms of sexual violence and persecution" in the @StateDept's determination that members of the ENDF, EDF and Amhara forces committed crimes against humanity in #Tigray.
Some definitions:
ushmm.org/genocide-preve…
As noted in this @issafrica piece, Ethiopian criminal law doesn't proscribe crimes against humanity.
issafrica.org/iss-today/pros…
"We reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes," @SecBlinken declared in @statedept's recent announcement regarding crimes against humanity by members of Russia's forces and other Russian officials.
state.gov/crimes-against…
The Rome Statute defines crimes against humanity as atrocities that are "“committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.” The finding indicates evidence of a pattern of atrocities...
... and the systemic nature tends to suggest direction from somewhere up the chain of command (not simply crimes by low-level soldiers).

Crimes against humanity are among the most serious crimes in int'l law.
Secretary Blinken did not comment today on allegations that acts of genocide were committed in Tigray. (Nor did he do so in announcing the Russia determination.) Unless the @statedept says otherwise, this does not mean they have ruled out the crime occurring.
Genocide is a very difficult crime to prove. It requires evidence of intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.

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More from @LaurenBinDC

Mar 18
While high-level US & EU diplomatic visits drew int'l press attention to #Ethiopia this week, most of the focus was on diplomatic relations, $, and the #Tigray peace deal. There was little coverage of the dangerous undercurrents that continue to threaten the country's stability.
On Mar 15, while the intl press was focused on Blinken's visit, Ethiopia's election board issued a statement condemning the persecution of some political parties by the govt & its security forces, citing illegal detentions, intimidation & harassment.
m.facebook.com/story.php?stor…
The day prior, the Mayor of Addis -Ethiopia's culturally diverse capital city- made highly controversial comments alleging that youth from "some regional states" were trying to flood the city to overthrow the govt. Addis's police chief claimed most of the youth were from Amhara.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 27
Two weeks after forces in Puntland killed IS-Somalia's head of ops, Abu-Albara Al Amani of Ethiopia, US forces conduct a rare raid in #Somalia targeting Bilal al-Sudani, a top Islamic State figure seen as a key facilitator for ISIS's global network. 🧵
Bilal al-Sudani, aka Suhayl Salim Abd el-Rahman of #Sudan, was designated under the US #Somalia sanctions program in 2012 for facilitating the travel & financing of foreign fighters for #AlShabaab since 2007. He later joined the IS splinter faction.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Al-Sudani was linked to a South Africa-based ISIS facilitator, Abdella Hussein Abadigga, that was designated for sanctions in early 2022.
home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 11, 2022
Tigray authorities say they are ready to abide by an immediate cessation of hostilities, to create a conducive atmosphere for AU-led talks under *mutually-acceptable" mediators, with int'l observers to help build trust, instill confidence in the process & support implementation.
These are all fairly standard components of peace processes. The Govt of Ethiopia has been resistant to calls for int'l observers, however. Will they accept them now? This would notionally require granting them access to Tigray & conflict-affected parts of Amhara & Afar.
What Tigray authorities are proposing was presumably part of the discussions between AU & US officials in recent days, and appears to be the result of the reported talks in Djibouti.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 10, 2022
The restrictions on US military aid were imposed in May 2021 (before the targeted sanctions regime was announced in Sept). But Ethiopia isn't reliant on US $ for its AMISOM deployment, and didn't cut its AU troop levels. 1/
state.gov/united-states-…

amisom-au.org/ethiopia-endf/
Ethiopia did, however, reportedly withdraw some sizable # of troops it deploys bilaterally (not part of AMISOM/ATMIS) in Somalia at the start of the war and again as the TDF expanded its operations in the latter months of 2021. The US does not support the bilat deployment.
So if Ethiopia pulled 3000 troops from Somalia, as she claims, it wasn't because of US security assistance restrictions, it was because the govt needed more troops to fight the war in N. Ethiopia.
Read 5 tweets
Sep 9, 2022
#Ethiopia's government says that the @UN_HRC-authorized #ICHREE has "weaponized human rights for political pressure and exposed its true intentions, foreclosing all doors of cooperation with the Government."

The ICHREE statement:
ohchr.org/en/statements/…
The ICHREE statement:
🔹expresses deep concern with the renewed hostilities
🔹calls on the parties to immediately cease hostilities, respect IHL obligations & return to dialogue
🔹welcomes the UNSC decision to discuss the situation & urges the UNSC to keep it high on the agenda
and
🔹"calls upon the Council to take action under the Charter needed to ensure the protection of civilians and prevent escalation that could further destabilize the region"

That last bullet is presumably what the Govt of Ethiopia found threatening.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23, 2021
There seems to be some confusion about AGOA - the law (written and passed by Congress) doesn't give the executive branch the option to "extend the deadline." Ethiopia was determined ineligible for AGOA trade benefits in 2022 bc it did not meet this requirement (10 USC 23 §3703):
The law can be read here:
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=…
A suspension of military operations is a positive step, but the Biden Administration's determination regarding Ethiopia was in response to "gross violations of internationally recognized human rights."
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
Read 6 tweets

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