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Mar 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#China_Russia: Putin has invited Chinese companies to invest in Russia and replace Western companies that exited as a result of (self) sanction. Russia does not have the resources or time to create from scratch technological capabilities that compensate for those of the West.⤵️
Therefore, the only way to prevent the deindustrialization of the Russian economy is by importing Chinese technology. Instead, Putin is willing to take gas exports to China to another level to reach up to $100 billion a year by 2030. It is a tough decision for China⤵️
to start exporting its technology and FDI to Russia until the war is over and the risk of sanctions contagion don't be removed. First China wants to end the war in favor of Russia. The rest will depend on it.
washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 22
#Sanctions: UN humanitarian diplomacy aims to convince the EU to exempt Belarusian fertilizer exports. Lithuania and Poland are against any easing of restrictions on the export of Belarusian potash to not help Lukashenko. The sanctions were applied after⤵️
the Ryanair hijacking in 2021. Lukashenko's facilitation of the Russian war against Ukraine has reduced exports to the West. Belarus currently transports potash from Russia's St Petersburg and Murmansk airports. The potash producer (Belaruskali) is a⤵️
major source of income for the Lukashenko regime. The US shares the concern that sanctions on Belarus could have aggravating effects on food security. Canada has already taken the top spot as a world share of exports, planning to expand production capacity.⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 22
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: There are two main conditions that Baku imposes to allow the Armenian community to live in Nagorno-Karabakh. They sound like an ultimatum and are articulated in the language of power:⤵️
1) the recognition by Armenia that Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) belongs to Azerbaijan (this would mean that Yerevan should give up any idea of demanding a special status for the NK populated mainly by the Armenian community, including the deployment of an int peace-keeping mission);⤵️
2) accepting the delimitation of the borders according to Azeri requests (in reality such exercise requires consensus and even mutual concessions if necessary). If they are not fulfilled, Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan will not recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 21
#China_Russia: Putin is using Xi's visit to project to his domestic audience that Russia is not isolated. On the contrary, China is on Moscow’s side. For Xi, the meeting with Putin is a way to show the Chinese public that he counts on Russia to counter the US.⤵️
A Russia weakened by sanctions is better for Beijing than one defeated in/by Ukraine with Western military support. China has a double task: a) to avoid a Ukrainian scenario in Taiwan, when the West supports the island to counter China (as they to in relation to Ukraine against⤵️
Russian aggression); b) not letting Russia lose the war because that could basically serve as a lesson to be learned that the West will remind Beijing to deter any major attacks on Taiwan.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Moldova_Georgia: According to media reports, the Estonian and Romanian MFAs have mentioned during today's meeting in Brussels that the EU should apply sanctions to the oligarchs of Moldova and Georgia because they seek to destabilize the two countries. The proposed sanctions⤵️
are envisioned as part of the Russia sanctions package. The protests that took place in Georgia and that occur regularly in Moldova have very little in common. The sanction to the oligarchs of these two countries will have a symbolic connotation. The fugitive businessman⤵️
behind the Moldova protests (Ilan Shor) or Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili is highly unlikely to stop meddling in politics, quite the contrary. Tomorrow will publish an analytical article on the nature and differences of the protests in Moldova & Georgia. Stay tuned!
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#China_Russia: Xi's trip to Russia to meet Putin reveals many interesting aspects. Starting a longer thread on this (geo)political event: 1) Xi's choice to visit Putin (who is wanted by the ICC) as his first destination after being re-elected for a third term. ⤵️
Xi doesn't care about reputational costs because they don’t exist for him in China or the Global South; 2) Putin has already welcomed Xi's 12-point peace agreement between Ukraine (victim) and Russia (aggressor), and agreed to discuss the details. The respective proposal ⤵️
favors Russia not a long-lasting peace for Ukraine, including the de-occupation of its territories off Russian military forces; 3) Almost immediately upon arrival, Xi endorsed Putin for re-election during the 2024 presidential election.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Russia_Sanctions: Moscow has just announced that it will abandon its participation (compliance) in the grain agreement on May 18 if the following conditions are not met: 1) reconnect Rosselhozbank to Swift; 2) resumption of agrotech exports to Russia;⤵️
3) remove restrictions on insurance and access to ports; 4) resumption of ammonia supply by pipeline from Tolyati to Odesa; and 5) unfreezing of all assets of Russian companies that produce or transport agri-food.⤵️
This ultimatum will most likely be ignored, raising the level of uncertainty about the Ukrainian grain supply. Russia again seeks to involve the UN to advocate for a solution.
Read 4 tweets

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