Cuts top end of growth guidance from 11% to 10%
Earlier it was 8-11% YY cc revenue growth, now it is 8-10%.
Guidance for Q3 is $16.1-$16.7bn revenues, +3-7% y-y in cc.
Q2 revenues at $15.8bn. In cc terms it is 9% YY growth ( 6-10% in guidance) & in $ terms it is 5% y-y growth.
Ebit margin for Q2 was 12.3% down 140bps YY
Business optimisation cost of $244mn or around 150bps of revenues booked in Q2
=> Adjusted margin at 13.8% , up 10 bps y-y
Cuts margin guidance sharply from 15.3-15.5% for fy23 earlier to 14.1-14.3% now. * This includes $800mn business optimisation costs. Excluding this the band is unchanged at 15.3-15.5%.
Managed services (India peers) has growth of 16% YY in cc
while consulting lagged at 4% y-y growth in cc
vs 9% YY growth at the company level.
North America lagged growth at 5% y-y in cc vs eu at 12% and growth markets at 14%.
In verticals, CMT was flat YY in cc (only vertical with no growth). FS was up 10% y-y and strongest growth was in resources at 16% y-y in cc.
Order bookings at $22.09bn. up 13% YY
Managed services @ $11.4bn up 31% y-y.
Consulting soft at 2% y-y decline.
Overall a mixed Bag for the Indian IT Services.
This is the BIG NEGATIVE... Will also be cutting about 2.5% of workforce, or 19,000 jobs
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Judge #Modinomics on #NIIP (-ve $390bn)
And Not on FX Reserves (+ve $506bn)
So what is #NIIP or Net International Investment Position. Let me quote @FinMinIndia Economic Survey
NIIP is the difference b/w an Economy’s External financial Assets & Liabilities.
If Economy = Person, NIIP is Assets (Property, Deposits, Investments) less Liabilities (Loans)
As per FY23 Economic Survey released by @FinMinIndia before budget, India's overseas financial ASSETS at US$ 847.5bn but India's International LIABILITIES was higher at US$ 1,237.1Bn
Assets ($847.5) LESS Liabilities ($1237.1Bn) = NEGATIVE $389.6Bn
POSITIVE: HAL market cap is sufficient to get itself included in the MSCI Index. Might happen in May-2023. so the govt has timed this well.
NEGATIVE: Domestic institutions like #LIC & #HDFC who bought the stock when it was Rs1000 levels appear to be selling in each rally even while Retail & FIIs appear have to increased their stake. DONT READ much into the FII stake since much of it could be Index Funds, ETFs & HFs
The massive rise in Bond Volatility which can be tracked by the MOVE index is driving VAR (Value at Risk) related Asset Sales which is driving the sell down across various Asset classes.
Gold is quite a illiquid asset and hence a bit of buying here (most obvious asset that benefits), can send it up even in such an environment. GOLD is a great asset to reduce the overall Volatility in your portfolio.
#US#BankingCrisis In abt 4 weeks, you will forget that a US regional Banking Crisis even happened. But IF AM WRONG, it will be WORSE IN EUROPE. A quick thread.
(1) US Banks Total Assets is at a current level of $23.8trn & $20.7 trn in liabilities. SVB, First Republic & Signature together is abt $500bn ~4% of Assets. Not Small.
But given this is more liquidity rather than Insolvency, I would not fret
(2) US BANKS are far more liquid these days. Back in 2008, banks had 23:1 ratio of deposit liabilities to liquid cash. QE & New regulations lead to a a fall in this ratio more like a 5x or 6x ratio these days