Our @UNIDIR report on 5th #ChemicalWeapons Convention RevCon outlined 5 outcome scenarios. While consensus should be sought, State Parties will likely ask: consensus at what cost? Substantive issues will divide SPs, so consensus will likely be a dilution of the issues. 1/7 #OPCW
But will SPs permit such dilution? If not, we may repeat RC4 outcome: a chair’s report. This can capture some substance, but it’s not an effective, solidifying, strategic document for #OPCW. However, this outcome seems likely. So how do SPs make the best of this situation? 2/7
There are discrete topics that might generate agreement as to their importance for #OPCW strategic vision, i.e. the #ChemTechCentre, #theAfricaProgram, #gender#geographicrepresentation –&others? So, how can SPs ensure these aren't lost in diluted outcome or chair's report? 3/7
I see 2 potential options to generate a strategic view forward for these discrete topics. In both options, what's important is the decoupling and shielding of the topics from whatever fallout the process of seeking a formal outcome document generates . 4/7
Opt1 is to draft package of decisions on discrete topics for RC5. Unprecedented(I think), but provides concrete way for SPs to establish ‘issue safe-spaces’ to deliver outcomes that reflect traditional visions of success. Package of bounded consensus Decs provide structure. 5/7
Opt2, if Opt1 is not feasible: draft joint statements on discrete issues w/ as many SPs as possible. Imagine the signal that would be sent in a statement w/ ~188 SPs stressing strategic importance of a particular issue. Not a decision, but still meaningful and creative 6/7 #opcw
These are workarounds for SPs to make the most of #RC5. Limited time & will take work, but this doesn’t need to be a binary win/lose. There are creative options for SPs to clearly articulate strategic priorities for #OPCW in areas that might come close to commanding consensus.7/7
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Fascinating discussion yesterday at @cwccoalition with @JPZanders + Alastair Hay on #whitephosphorus and its ambiguous place in arms control architectures (something i know very little about) 1/6 #opcw#cwc
Although not explicitly covered by the #CWC#OPCW, and inadequately covered within the #CCW, the inhalation of its white smoke (phosphorous pentoxide) can cause asphyxiation and permanent harm to the respiratory tract through its toxic, irritant properties. 2/6
If #whitephosphorus smoke is used intentionally as an irritant, how does that relate to the #OPCW#CWC General Purpose Criterion? It is remarkably hard to ascertain 'intent' especially given that the 'exceptions' under #CCW Protocol III provide scope 'accidental' exposure 3/6
Great #CSP26 report. Ensuring effective CWC implementation requires active participatory stakeholder networks/communities. A requirement for that is #OPCW transparency, and this @cwccoalition reporting re-establishes much needed civil society entry points to information [1/4]
This complements the great on-the-ground #OPCW CSP coverage provided by @CBWEvents, and is a small light in the dark hole left by the cessation of the publication of @SPRU Harvard Sussex Program CBW Conventions Bulletin [back issues found here sussex.ac.uk/Units/spru/hsp…] 2/4
This effort by @cwccoalition and others to inform/ structure civil society engagement with CWC/ #OPCW issues is a fundamental step in community building and bringing old and new voices in. It is now important for States Parties to add structure from their side too. 3/4
1/4: Voting on #OPCW Programme & Budget has become common practice, representing difference of opinion on legitimacy of the IIT and - for the some in the 'no' camp - their denial that the Syrian government has used #chemicalweapons. But who votes no and how often? #CSP26
Here we see that P&B was, at least at CSP level, relatively uncontentious, until #OPCW#IIT was established by vote in June '18. In the old days, P&B bartering could be ironed out thru consultations with TS and at EC level. From 2018, voting no is one way to protest. #CSP26
3/4 - So, we have had 4 years of P&B voting: but who has been voting no consistently? The gaudy table below shows there have been 8 SPs consistently voting no: we can assume Syria would be here if they could vote, as would Venezuela, and a handful of others. #OPCW#CSP26