#BustingMyths #ForexReserves #Modinomics #MUSTREAD

Judging a Country based on its #ForexReserves is like Judging a Persons Networth based on his #SavingAccount balance & not his #LoanAccount balance.

Judge #Modinomics on #NIIP (-ve $390bn)
And Not on FX Reserves (+ve $506bn)
So what is #NIIP or Net International Investment Position. Let me quote @FinMinIndia Economic Survey

NIIP is the difference b/w an Economy’s External financial Assets & Liabilities.

If Economy = Person, NIIP is Assets (Property, Deposits, Investments) less Liabilities (Loans)
As per FY23 Economic Survey released by @FinMinIndia before budget, India's overseas financial ASSETS at US$ 847.5bn but India's International LIABILITIES was higher at US$ 1,237.1Bn

Assets ($847.5) LESS Liabilities ($1237.1Bn) = NEGATIVE $389.6Bn

STOP LOOKING AT FX RESERVES
NIIP: When compared to other Countries like
China,
Japan,
S Korea,
Singapore
Germany
UK
US
Russia
Brazil
Indonesia
Bangladesh

Brazil is the Worst, Followed by India.
NOTE: Forex (FX) Reserves is like CASH in your Savings or Current Account. Its a sign of how much LIQUIDITY you have. It does NOT show you how much your NET WORTH is. For that you have to consider External Loans or Liabilities.
Since some of these LOANS or LIABILITIES might have to be paid immediately,

Another way to look at our FX Reserves is to look at HOW MANY MONTHS of IMPORT COVER India have. Here is a long Term Chart.

As you can see, Indias Months of Import Cover has fallen in to 10 months.
Now Lets Look at the Months of IMPORT cover (Purple) along with the Foreign Exchange (Green) ..... Hope you get the point.

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More from @TheFactFindr

Mar 24
UN Report: India's water scarcity expected to get more severe by 2050

IRONICALLY... EXPORTING SUGAR & 20% ETHANOL blending will bleed India DRY

To Save Rs30000cr of FOREX, our #Vishwaguru wants to SPEND 100000 cr

STUPIDTY of the Highest Order !

indiatvnews.com/news/india/ind…
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Mar 24
#StockMarket #Lessons #TINA #TARA

#TINA: There Is NO ALTERNATIVE
#TARA: There Are REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES

When the facts changed, Market DUMPED #TINA and moved on to #TARA

After being in an ABUSIVE Relationship, when will a INDIAN #VOTER Learn 2 DUMP #TINA in favor of #TARA
#TINA was EQUITIES in Post Covid Era till 2022 Jan-22

#TARA is CASH/GOLD came to the fore in Jan-22

==================

#TINA in Indian #Politics is HeWhoShouldNotBeNamed

#TARA could be anyone else …. Even a Regular HUMAN is better
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Mar 23
#Accenture just announced Results... Quick Points

Cuts top end of growth guidance from 11% to 10%
Earlier it was 8-11% YY cc revenue growth, now it is 8-10%.
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Q2 revenues at $15.8bn. In cc terms it is 9% YY growth ( 6-10% in guidance) & in $ terms it is 5% y-y growth.
Ebit margin for Q2 was 12.3% down 140bps YY

Business optimisation cost of $244mn or around 150bps of revenues booked in Q2
=> Adjusted margin at 13.8% , up 10 bps y-y
Cuts margin guidance sharply from 15.3-15.5% for fy23 earlier to 14.1-14.3% now. * This includes $800mn business optimisation costs. Excluding this the band is unchanged at 15.3-15.5%.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 22
Be vary about getting caught into a value trap with #HAL #OFS ..... just some points to keep in mind
POSITIVE: HAL market cap is sufficient to get itself included in the MSCI Index. Might happen in May-2023. so the govt has timed this well. Image
NEGATIVE: Domestic institutions like #LIC & #HDFC who bought the stock when it was Rs1000 levels appear to be selling in each rally even while Retail & FIIs appear have to increased their stake. DONT READ much into the FII stake since much of it could be Index Funds, ETFs & HFs Image
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#SomeThoughts - what’s driving Crude Oil Down ?

The massive rise in Bond Volatility which can be tracked by the MOVE index is driving VAR (Value at Risk) related Asset Sales which is driving the sell down across various Asset classes. Image
Image
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Mar 14
#US #BankingCrisis In abt 4 weeks, you will forget that a US regional Banking Crisis even happened. But IF AM WRONG, it will be WORSE IN EUROPE. A quick thread.
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But given this is more liquidity rather than Insolvency, I would not fret

Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLAACBW…
(2) US BANKS are far more liquid these days. Back in 2008, banks had 23:1 ratio of deposit liabilities to liquid cash. QE & New regulations lead to a a fall in this ratio more like a 5x or 6x ratio these days
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