Evan Gershkovich, a correspondent for @WSJ - Wall Street Journal - who has been living in Moscow for six years, has been detained in Yekaterinburg on suspicion of espionage. An important Thread 🧵 @evangershkovich
The #FSB believes that the journalist "was collecting information on behalf of the United States about one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, which constitutes a state secret."
This is, of course, shocking. Let's wait to see what the FSB specifically presents, but it appears that they have taken a hostage.
There are many people that could be exchanged: for example, Vladislav Klyushin, who was not swapped in the last exchange (by the way, the last exchange itself could have given the #Kremlin a taste of success and fueled a desire to take new hostages)…
… Vadim Krasikov in Germany, as well as some illegals in other countries (Moscow believes that Washington can deal with this).
The problem is that the recently updated Russian legislation and the FSB's interpretation of espionage today allow for the imprisonment of anyone who is simply interested in military affairs;
that is, writes about the war against Ukraine, private military companies, the state of affairs in the army, the equipment of troops with ammunition, military tactics and strategy...
The act of "collecting information," which can simply involve collecting comments from experts or searching for information on the internet, is sufficient to bring charges.
Interestingly, the FSB evasively claims that Evan was acting "on behalf of the Americans," which can be interpreted very broadly. The editorial board of @WSJ is also American.
This suggests that the FSB has no evidence to indicate that Evan was specifically working as a spy undercover as a journalist. However, this undoubtedly brings #Russia and the #UnitedStates' relationship to a new level of confrontation.
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Dear friends, today we're making our year-end Bulletin, a special #Christmas issue, available to everyone for free – no subscription needed. This edition delves into our analysis of the 2024 outlook, covering the #war in #Ukraine, domestic affairs, and the economy. rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b…
1/ The notion that #Putin has ample time at his disposal is debatable. The forthcoming year is perceived as a crucial period to take action before the West potentially escalates its support for #Ukraine, especially with regards to ramping up ammunition production, which are expected to significantly increase by 2025.
2/Putin is therefore aiming to secure substantial advancements in 2024, as he anticipates that achieving these objectives could become considerably more challenging, if not unfeasible, in the subsequent years. His primary aim, above all else, is to “neutralise” Ukraine as a sovereign state, with less emphasis on specific territorial borders.
Our New Weekly R.Politik Digest is Out and Now Available – No Subscription Required. Here are the main takeaways. Please sign up here to get access to the Digest. rpolitik.com/the-weekly-dig…
Our main focus is on #Putin’s first press conference — the ‘direct line’ — after #Russia launched the war against #Ukraine. While many consider the event senseless and annoying, we have watched it carefully and can reassure you - there are intriguing developments to follow.
Putin is using this opportunity to assert what he perceives as Russian tactical and strategic dominance, nearly two years into the war. He addressed the West, urging it to cease supporting Ukraine, arguing that this support only leads to a higher death toll and that all Western military equipment will be destroyed.
◽️ Drone Attack on the #Kremlin: The ease with which the heart of the #Russian state was penetrated raises questions about who was behind the raid, how it was possible to evade air defences, why the Kremlin was quick to admit its vulnerability, and what the response will be.
Some observers even suspect the attack to be a false flag to justify further escalation. We explain the Kremlin's reaction, its underlying logic, and the political repercussions for the elite and society.
◽️ Digital Summons for Military Service: This is the key topic of the bulletin, which we examine in detail.
We first look at the practical side of things - how the new rules will work, which digital registers will be used for drafting, how different bodies will interact to maintain the data, and who the key players were in deliberating the bill.
Vladimir Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years in prison. A thread 🧵 on the state of law, political prosecution, and treason in #Russia
Such a long term is due to charges of treason: the case was qualified under Article 275 of the Criminal Code due to three public speeches by Kara-Murza criticizing the #Russian authorities — in Lisbon, Helsinki, and Washington.
As the lawyer Vadim Prokhorov told "Kommersant," this is the first case when the new, expanded version of the article on treason has been applied —
In her most recent article for @CEIP_Politika, @Stanovaya addresses the issue of the Russian Elites’ dissatisfaction with the war, the effects it is having on Russia, and Putin in general and what this could mean for them and the government. A thread 🧵 carnegieendowment.org/politika/89480
The leaked recording of a conversation between alleged #Russian elites has sparked interest in the hidden dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in #Russia, including the war in Ukraine.
The conversation revealed the elites' true attitudes towards #Putin and the war, with many feeling that Putin has failed Russia. Regardless of ideology, Russian elites are united in their conviction that Putin must win the war.