Regarding the explosion in #Prigozhin's cafe and the death of #Tatarsky, enough is already known: anti-war activist Darya Trepova, who allegedly claimed to be working for "Ukrainian journalists" and planned to emigrate, carried out the task – 1/
she brought a statuette to event Z, where one of the most famous pro-war bloggers performed. It cannot be excluded that she did not know about the bomb, although she probably consider that option. 2/
Her subsequent actions suggest that no one had prepared her for a quick escape after the attack, which means she may have been used unwittingly. 3/
Special services, of course, immediately recorded #Navalny's organisation (FBK) as accomplices – now all participants in anti-war actions automatically become potential terrorists in the eyes of not only law enforcement agencies but also the "patriotic" public. 4/
This will undoubtedly work to exacerbate the social divide.
5/
What happened shows how vulnerable active advocates of war are today. I don't think there will be a large-scale reaction from the authorities: as experience shows, the #Kremlin is more inclined to make such situations a matter of routine. 6/
That is, in the end, we will face the routinization of terrorist attacks, which will undoubtedly become one of the factors of domestic political destabilization. 7/
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Dear friends, today we're making our year-end Bulletin, a special #Christmas issue, available to everyone for free – no subscription needed. This edition delves into our analysis of the 2024 outlook, covering the #war in #Ukraine, domestic affairs, and the economy. rpolitik.com/the-bulletin/b…
1/ The notion that #Putin has ample time at his disposal is debatable. The forthcoming year is perceived as a crucial period to take action before the West potentially escalates its support for #Ukraine, especially with regards to ramping up ammunition production, which are expected to significantly increase by 2025.
2/Putin is therefore aiming to secure substantial advancements in 2024, as he anticipates that achieving these objectives could become considerably more challenging, if not unfeasible, in the subsequent years. His primary aim, above all else, is to “neutralise” Ukraine as a sovereign state, with less emphasis on specific territorial borders.
Our New Weekly R.Politik Digest is Out and Now Available – No Subscription Required. Here are the main takeaways. Please sign up here to get access to the Digest. rpolitik.com/the-weekly-dig…
Our main focus is on #Putin’s first press conference — the ‘direct line’ — after #Russia launched the war against #Ukraine. While many consider the event senseless and annoying, we have watched it carefully and can reassure you - there are intriguing developments to follow.
Putin is using this opportunity to assert what he perceives as Russian tactical and strategic dominance, nearly two years into the war. He addressed the West, urging it to cease supporting Ukraine, arguing that this support only leads to a higher death toll and that all Western military equipment will be destroyed.
◽️ Drone Attack on the #Kremlin: The ease with which the heart of the #Russian state was penetrated raises questions about who was behind the raid, how it was possible to evade air defences, why the Kremlin was quick to admit its vulnerability, and what the response will be.
Some observers even suspect the attack to be a false flag to justify further escalation. We explain the Kremlin's reaction, its underlying logic, and the political repercussions for the elite and society.
◽️ Digital Summons for Military Service: This is the key topic of the bulletin, which we examine in detail.
We first look at the practical side of things - how the new rules will work, which digital registers will be used for drafting, how different bodies will interact to maintain the data, and who the key players were in deliberating the bill.
Vladimir Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years in prison. A thread 🧵 on the state of law, political prosecution, and treason in #Russia
Such a long term is due to charges of treason: the case was qualified under Article 275 of the Criminal Code due to three public speeches by Kara-Murza criticizing the #Russian authorities — in Lisbon, Helsinki, and Washington.
As the lawyer Vadim Prokhorov told "Kommersant," this is the first case when the new, expanded version of the article on treason has been applied —
In her most recent article for @CEIP_Politika, @Stanovaya addresses the issue of the Russian Elites’ dissatisfaction with the war, the effects it is having on Russia, and Putin in general and what this could mean for them and the government. A thread 🧵 carnegieendowment.org/politika/89480
The leaked recording of a conversation between alleged #Russian elites has sparked interest in the hidden dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in #Russia, including the war in Ukraine.
The conversation revealed the elites' true attitudes towards #Putin and the war, with many feeling that Putin has failed Russia. Regardless of ideology, Russian elites are united in their conviction that Putin must win the war.