Thomas des Garets Geddes Profile picture
Apr 13, 2023 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
One of the Global South's leading voices, 🇧🇷 Lula, is in #China.

Prof. Cheng Yawen argues that "🇨🇳 and develop. countries need to break the current core-periphery world order" and build a new international system free from Western interference.

THREAD
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…
🔹The Author: Cheng Yawen (程亚文) – Researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University. Image
🔹 Summary of Cheng's views:

1⃣ US-led globalisation and capitalism drove #NATO's eastward expansion. This, in turn, has been the “main reason” behind #Russia’s offensive in #Ukraine.

2⃣ Western-style globalisation is coming to an end. Image
3⃣ #China’s rise is threatening the current US-led international order whose rules have been designed to benefit the West. Image
4⃣ The #UkraineRussiaWar️ has laid bare the West's intent to unite in order to suppress non-Western countries – China and Russia in particular. The #UnitedStates has made clear that “it will not rest until China is defeated”. Image
5⃣ The West’s decoupling from China is set to accelerate and will continue “for a long time to come”. China’s being hit in its turn by Russia-like sanctions remains a possibility. Image
6⃣ 🇨🇳 should thus “create a new internat. environment conducive to safeguarding 🇨🇳 nat. security and long-term develop.” It should do so by reassessing “🇨🇳 past tradition of multilateralism” and by shifting its diplomatic focus away from the West towards the Global South (+🇷🇺).
7⃣ This, however, does not mean completely shunning the West. Engaging and even developing cooperative relations with western countries should continue whenever possible. Image
8⃣ China should categorise its diplomatic relations with the world into “3 rings” and prioritise these as follows: 1. East Asia, Central Asia + the Middle East; 2. Other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; 3. Europe, the US and other industrialised countries. Image
9⃣ To foster this change, China should:

a) Encourage the emergence of a new international payment system, promote the internationalisation of the RMB and provide support for currencies other than the USD (such as the euro). Image
b) Upgrade the New Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

c) Establish a common energy market and payment network with other Asian countries (incl. the Middle East)
d) Strengthen both financial and security cooperation with other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) members and Iran.

e) Deepen East Asia’s (as understood in its broadest sense) economic integration.
f) De-emphasise growth-driven strategies in favour of political and security-related ones. This will help reduce Western interference in the region.

g) Use the BRICS as a catalyst for South-South cooperation.
🔟 Quote: “The emergence of a new world-system and the deepening of South-South cooperation will allow China to enter the forefront of the world economy and politics.” Image
📣 To receive weekly insights from Chinese think-tank and academic circles on a range of international topics, you can subscribe here at no cost:
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…

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More from @thomasdggeddes

May 16
Leading Chinese scholar Zheng Yongnian (郑永年) pushes back against accusations that #China has an #overcapacity problem.

"Without productive power, changing the world is impossible", he argues.

His views in eight key points:

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/prof-zheng-y…
▫️The Author: Image
▫️His views in a nutshell:

1⃣ After “peak China”, Chinese “debt trap diplomacy”, China’s “new imperialism” and so on, the concept of “Chinese overcapacity” is merely the newest rhetorical weapon used by the West to undermine #China’s rise.
Read 10 tweets
May 6
Vice president of 🇨🇳 MSS-affiliated think tank CICIR and director of its Institute of European Studies, Zhang Jian (张健), wrote in 2022 about the "Frenchification of the EU" and its implications for #China.

His views in eight key points:

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/the-importan…
1⃣ Until the outbreak of the #UkraineRussiaWar, the EU was undergoing a process of “Frenchification”, with more and more French ideas being translated into EU policies.
2⃣ With the UK out of the EU, distrust of the USA rising and the EU’s leadership staffed with #Macron allies, #France’s sway over the European Union increased substantially.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 29
Two Chinese analysts from SIIS (a top Chinese think tank) discuss the current rapprochement between #Russia and #NorthKorea, and worry about the repercussions this may have on regional stability and #China's global image.

What did they say?

[THREAD] 🧵
sinification.com/p/russia-north…
▫️Their views in a nutshell:

1⃣ #Russia-#NorthKorea ties remain fragile, transactional and based on short-term geopolitical interests.
2⃣ A ceasefire in #Ukraine could well upend the recent warming of relations between the two countries.

3⃣ Mutual distrust could lead to rifts if expectations are not met.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 2
Ex-director of CASS's prestigious Institute of 🇹🇼 Studies, Zhou Zhihuai, recently shared his thoughts on the outcome of last month's #TaiwanElection, which he described as having had a “profound impact on the future direction of cross-Strait relations”. 🧵
sinification.com/p/taiwans-elec…
▫️ Since his semi-retirement in 2017, Zhou has held a number of research positions and has continued to work within the framework of China’s United Front Work Department. Image
▫️ Zhou's views in a nutshell:

1⃣ The #KMT's defeat was not due to the collapse of a potential “Blue-White alliance”, but rather to the long-standing “structural contradictions” that continue to plague the party. The KMT has long been in decline.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 11
Must-read piece by one of 🇨🇳's top IR scholars, Shi Yinhong (时殷弘), on #China's new approach to the #BRI and Beijing's "strategic priorities".

With a commentary by @MoritzRudolf.

What did Shi say?

[THREAD] Image
▫️ The Author: Image
▫️ Summary:

1⃣ Although #BRI projects may initially be driven by geopolitical needs, they must end up being financially sustainable in the long run. China no longer has the financial resources to sustain too many loss-making endeavours.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 29, 2023
Blinken, Yellen, Kerry and Kissinger have all travelled to #China in recent weeks. How have their visits been assessed by some of 🇨🇳's top international relations experts? Where do they see US-China relations heading? Their views in 4 key quotes:

THREAD🧵
sinification.com/p/from-blinken…
1⃣ "The recent back-to-back visits of Blinken, Yellen, and Kerry to China have not yielded any real and substantive results, except perhaps for the strengthening of both sides' willingness to prevent a US-China military conflict.” Image
2⃣ "Before the 2024 US election officially begins, the 🇺🇸🇨🇳 relationship has a very small ‘window of opportunity’ to improve ties. But, whether Democrats who are currently in office, such as Yellen, will be able to withstand political attacks by 🇨🇳hawks remains an open question.” Image
Read 6 tweets

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