Thomas des Garets Geddes Profile picture
Apr 13, 2023 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
One of the Global South's leading voices, 🇧🇷 Lula, is in #China.

Prof. Cheng Yawen argues that "🇨🇳 and develop. countries need to break the current core-periphery world order" and build a new international system free from Western interference.

THREAD
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…
🔹The Author: Cheng Yawen (程亚文) – Researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University. Image
🔹 Summary of Cheng's views:

1⃣ US-led globalisation and capitalism drove #NATO's eastward expansion. This, in turn, has been the “main reason” behind #Russia’s offensive in #Ukraine.

2⃣ Western-style globalisation is coming to an end. Image
3⃣ #China’s rise is threatening the current US-led international order whose rules have been designed to benefit the West. Image
4⃣ The #UkraineRussiaWar️ has laid bare the West's intent to unite in order to suppress non-Western countries – China and Russia in particular. The #UnitedStates has made clear that “it will not rest until China is defeated”. Image
5⃣ The West’s decoupling from China is set to accelerate and will continue “for a long time to come”. China’s being hit in its turn by Russia-like sanctions remains a possibility. Image
6⃣ 🇨🇳 should thus “create a new internat. environment conducive to safeguarding 🇨🇳 nat. security and long-term develop.” It should do so by reassessing “🇨🇳 past tradition of multilateralism” and by shifting its diplomatic focus away from the West towards the Global South (+🇷🇺).
7⃣ This, however, does not mean completely shunning the West. Engaging and even developing cooperative relations with western countries should continue whenever possible. Image
8⃣ China should categorise its diplomatic relations with the world into “3 rings” and prioritise these as follows: 1. East Asia, Central Asia + the Middle East; 2. Other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; 3. Europe, the US and other industrialised countries. Image
9⃣ To foster this change, China should:

a) Encourage the emergence of a new international payment system, promote the internationalisation of the RMB and provide support for currencies other than the USD (such as the euro). Image
b) Upgrade the New Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

c) Establish a common energy market and payment network with other Asian countries (incl. the Middle East)
d) Strengthen both financial and security cooperation with other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) members and Iran.

e) Deepen East Asia’s (as understood in its broadest sense) economic integration.
f) De-emphasise growth-driven strategies in favour of political and security-related ones. This will help reduce Western interference in the region.

g) Use the BRICS as a catalyst for South-South cooperation.
🔟 Quote: “The emergence of a new world-system and the deepening of South-South cooperation will allow China to enter the forefront of the world economy and politics.” Image
📣 To receive weekly insights from Chinese think-tank and academic circles on a range of international topics, you can subscribe here at no cost:
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…

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More from @thomasdggeddes

Jan 16
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▫️Yan’s views in a nutshell:Image
1️⃣ Domestically, the #UnitedStates is transitioning from a traditional democracy towards a semi-dictatorial state, evidenced by the routine bypassing of Congressional approval for military operations.
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[THREAD] 🧵 Image
▫️Lu's bio: Image
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1⃣ China's recent economic slowdown reflects policy missteps rather than fundamental structural problems. The country’s long-term growth potential remains strong.
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His views in 10 key points.

[THREAD]🧵 Image
▫️The Author: Image
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Renmin University of 🇨🇳 Prof. Di Dongsheng (翟东升) on how #AI could allow China to keep its industries from moving abroad—and shape global values.

His views in 10 key points:

[THREAD] 🧵 Image
▫️The Author: Image
▫️His views in a nutshell:

1⃣ Traditional explanations of industrial relocation predict that global manufacturing will eventually shift from China to countries with lower labour costs, such as Vietnam and India—a process that has already partly begun.
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"Where does #Trump’s confidence come from? It lies in the fact that the Republican Party controls the White House, both chambers of Congress, and, in addition, has [a majority of] conservative justices on the Supreme Court — hence he now acts like a dictator." [2/12]
Time is on 🇨🇳's side: "The issue is that Trump’s advantage can only last for 2 years. If the #tariffs war provokes widespread resentment and public anger, then in next year’s midterm elections, Republicans may lose control of the House of Rep., thereby dividing Congress." [3/12]
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Zhang Wenmu (张文木), a veteran 🇨🇳 strategist and Mao-era “educated youth”, explains why Beijing was right not to “abandon Russia” in the #UkraineWar.

Yet he fears that China’s future leaders may lack such strategic wisdom.

🧵His views in 10 key points 🧵 Image
▫️The Author: Image
▫️Zhang's views in a nutshell:

1⃣ China’s younger generations—both scholars and the general commentariat—seem to lack the deep understanding of strategic issues and the importance of national security possessed by the older generation.
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