Thread by @Sandmonkey

The framing of the #Sudan current conflict as a proxywar between the #UAE backed #RSF & #Egypt backed #SAF is not only wrong, but one of the dumbest misinformed takes one could have about this situation. Rivalled only by the take that supporting the Generals wud lead to democracy

First off:
-the UAE doesnt back the #RSF over the Sudan military. They back both, but will always lean to the side of institutions (The Army) when push comes to shove, and has been for the past 6 months. Same with Saudi.

Currently the #RSF stands alone.

Secondly:
The #SAF is not only backed by #Egypt..it is also backed by the Gulf, the EU and the US. The western powers specifically will never back the #RSF or Hamedti given his history of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, & especially after his collaboration with #Russia got exposed.

The #SAF got "institutional legitimacy" both locally and regionally. The #RSF is a militia run by a human trafficking billionaire with a history of genocide & gold smuggeling. While both are criminals, they are not the same in the eyes of the global order.

The #RSF move is a desperate one. They are without allies and will end up in a clash with the #SAF sooner or later, so they chose the timing, hoping to conduct one last coup in a surprise attack. But that can only work if they manage to take power in the first 48 hours.

So now we are nearing end of day one, if this isnt over by tomorrow, the #RSF are done for, since they cant sustain a continued armed conflict against the #SAF. Its the #endgame for Hamedti: if he wont get AlBurhan's head, his own is on the chopping block next.