I’m going to try and give a fair prediction for $ATOM
Last bull $ATOM under performed
While creating one of the most fundamental achievements in crypto to date
Creating the #IBC protocol (inter blockchain communication) allowing an interoperable ecosystem
1/
In the last bull market the overall crypto market cap hit 3.2 trillion
$Atom at its ATH hit around $12.6bill market cap giving $Atom a price of $44.5 roughly per token
While chains in general without much achievement grew to 25bill plus
(Some would say down to marketing)
2/
So taking into consideration $Atom is more exposed to the general crypto market
Future forecasts have the crypto market cap around 5trillion by 2025
3/
With replicated security, interchain accounts, all the added extras thats happening on the hub, should (always speculation) position it in much better light come the next big bull cycle
4/
With the current inflation model and supply.
16% inflation
340mill total supply
Factoring them into it,
If inflation stays roughly 16%
May 2024 total supply roughly 394.5mill
May 2025 total supply roughly
457.6mill
5/
So my considerations are
at 3.2 trillion crypto market it hit 12.6bill Mc
Supply change
Added features
Under performing last bull
Predicted 2025 crypto MC being 5trillion
6/
I think we will see $ATOM above 38billion MC in 2025
With a rough supply of 457.6million which would put $ATOM price around $83 per token.
Remember it’s speculation.
Just numbers for now.
So hit me with the thats FUD Ser 🤝
And give me your prediction?! 😁
7/
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I’ve done this for some fun but think it’s quite fair and feasible as well🫡
Expectations for drops are high everytime, so I’ll explain a little below how to manage expectation.
I’ve done this for tokens airdropped not value
$Atom 1/
With airdrops to understand realistically if your going to get a lot (of tokens) is by learning the airdrop model.
Normally a project will bring out what % of tokens are being airdropped, this could be either from full supply or Genesis supply.
So be sure to check
2/
By knowing the % and supply makes it easier to know how much is being given
Then you need to know how many chains are being dropped too
And what % them chains are being dropped.
3/
Just to throw another obstacle at $Atom 2.0 🤣 I’m working on a issuance schedule that would see 75% of issuance go to stakers and 25% to build a treasury over 4 years which the treasury would have around 35mill atom. Unless there’s a specific reason around having a 48mill chest
I’ve worked out it would take over 25years to reach a total supply of 500mill. but this keeps stakers aligned with securing the hub while the transition happens and consumer chains get on boarded
Personally if atom is going to accrue value then this has to be taken into account
Because it’s a risk everything should be taken with caution, I fully understand hence why I feel there’s no problem in taking a slight longer approach with issuance and building a treasury.
The apr % you see is for the full value of your pool..
So to get to these numbers
If you have 100% superfluid staking on the osmo half of the pool but the %apr shows for the full value of the pool the apr would be around 38% half of the 76%staking apr.
2/6
So when calculating etc you can use the 38% for the full value you have in the pool.
So to get to 19% again its a matter of halving the 38% to 19% (because only half the $osmo is fluidstaking) then to calculate what you get you add 19% to the overall value of the pool
3/6