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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
@DionisCenusa
May 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Moldova: According to the preliminary result of the elections in Gagauzia, the pro-Russian candidates have passed to the second round. They got ~26% each. The first is Ion Uzun, supported by the Socialists and former President Dodon, currently on trial for various reasons,⤵️
including state treason in favor of Russia. The second winner of the first round is Evghenii Gutul, the candidate of the Șor Party. It is very likely that the latter and its leader will be sanctioned by the EU in the coming weeks, following the US sanctions in 2022.
On the upside, the pro-EU ruling party could try to use the results of the Gagauzian election to mobilize its electorate against the pro-Russian vote.
Meanwhile, the second leader of the Șor Party, Marina Tauber, was detained at the airport while taking a flight to Israel (probably to meet Șor). Prosecutors issued the order in a bizarre fashion today, adding to the victimization of Șor Party ahead of the Gagauz election runoff.
While both the EU Delegation & the US Embassy, among other foreign observers (up to 80), were approved to monitor the elections in Gagauzia, the Russian Embassy's request was rejected. The Russian MFA complained of double standards and a further worsening of bilateral relations.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 2
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: The US has joined the mediation effort to bring the two countries to a negotiating table. Armenia is counting on the EU and the US to set the conditions for a peace agreement. Until now, Azerbaijan has shown less political dedication to achieving⤵️
the goal of peace. The main reason could be Baku's prioritization of Nagorno-Karabakh, which means restoration of territorial integrity. Azerbaijan's autocratic regime allows more room for bargaining during negotiations than it appears to in Armenia, where⤵️
democratic institutions are in better shape and the government can be held accountable. Despite the protests and pressure from the more nationalist opposition, Yerevan has shown itself more willing to achieve peace. Unlike the latter, which does not face resistance from⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
May 1
#Russia: Several explosions of critical infrastructure are reported in Russia. The railway tracks blew up in the Bryansk region and a train derailed. In the Leningrad region, a high-voltage pylon was exploded. This seems to be a prelude to the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. ImageImage
interfax.ru/russia/898554
interfax.ru/russia/898567
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 14
#EU_China: The German MFA Baerbock added the economic layer to the negative scenario conversation around Taiwan. Any kind of military escalation on the straight could potentially affect 50% of world trade. This affects 12% of freight flows from/to China and⤵️
38% to/from others (Japan, South Korea, etc.). Major trading nations will suffer losses, especially Germany that traded with China goods worth almost €300 billion worth of goods (2022). China was the 4th market for German exports in 2022 (113 billion euros), ⤵️
followed by the US, France and the Netherlands. A war in the Taiwan Straits will have consequences for both China and the rest of the world, unless Beijing is preparing for a blitzkrieg (which is something Russia failed against Ukraine).⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 14
#Armenia: The Russian MFA criticized the recently launched EU mission in Armenia, accusing it of being a source of destabilization. Reacting to this, the Secretary of National Security of Armenia, Grigoryan, clarified that the EU mission is considered a source of security.⤵️
Grigoryan noted that although the Russian military base has been present in Armenia since the 1990s, destabilization episodes occurred regularly. More importantly, the Armenian official explained that the EU mission is not an attempt to change the country's external vector.⤵️
Because Russian security guarantees are an ineffective deterrent against Azerbaijan's military posture, Armenia was forced to seek alternative sources of security guarantees. Even if in the short term, the EU mission is far from triggering a FP review of Armenia. However,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 14
#Moldova: The fugitive businessman, hiding in Israel, Ilan Shor, was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison. Some reflections: 1) An amount of approximately 250 million euros of his property in assets or money can be confiscated;⤵️
2) The Moldovan side expects him to be arrested by Interpol or even to serve his sentence in Israel (highly unlikely); 3) The exponents of the ruling party are using this episode to show that justice is giving results;⤵️
4) Fighting grand corruption is something that the ruling party promised to be elected. This is also part of the preconditions for accession to the EU; 5) The law was modified last year to be able to issue sentences in absentia.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Apr 13
#Ukraine: Russia threatens not to stick to the grain deal after May 18 if 5 conditions are not met. Neither the EU nor Ukraine will agree to meet most of these conditions: 1) reconnect Rosselhozbank to Swift; 2) lift sanctions on exports to Russia of agricultural equipment and⤵️
maintenance services; 3) resume access of Russian ships to EU ports; 4) resume the export of ammonia from Russia to the port of Odesa in Ukraine; 5) unfreeze the accounts of all Russian companies involved in the production and export of fertilizers.⤵️
Russia did not say what it intends to do if other parties continue to implement the grain deal. Blocking the grain deal before the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg could hurt Russia's soft power diplomacy in the Global South.
Read 4 tweets

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